Basketball in the Big 12 is basically a nightly car crash where everyone is driving 100 mph and nobody wants to use their brakes. Honestly, that’s the only way to describe what happens when you put Iowa State vs Cincinnati basketball on a court together. It’s not just a game; it’s a high-speed collision of two very different coaching philosophies that, for some reason, always seems to favor the guys from Ames lately.
If you’ve been following the Bearcats this season, you know they’re hungry. Wes Miller has a squad that’s been grinding, but they’ve hit a massive wall whenever they see that cardinal and gold jersey. Last season was rough for Cincinnati—they dropped both meetings to the Cyclones by a combined 31 points. Ouch.
Coming into their January 17, 2026, matchup at Fifth Third Arena, the vibes are... tense. Iowa State is sitting pretty at No. 2 in the nation with a 16-1 record. Cincinnati is 9-8 and just trying to keep their head above water in the most brutal conference in America.
The Milan Momcilovic Problem
Let's talk about Milan Momcilovic. The kid is a walking bucket. He’s averaging 17.2 points and shooting a blistering 40.3% from beyond the arc. For a guy his size, that’s just unfair.
Cincinnati’s defense has struggled to figure out how to close out on him without leaving the paint wide open for Joshua Jefferson, who’s basically a double-double machine (17.4 points, 7.8 rebounds). You try to double Milan? Joshua eats. You stay home on the bigs? Milan hits a three from the logo. It’s a "pick your poison" scenario that Wes Miller hasn't quite solved yet.
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Interestingly, while Iowa State is a scoring juggernaut, their defense is what actually keeps coaches awake at night. They rank 4th nationally in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. They don’t just play defense; they harass you. They’re like that annoying younger sibling who won't stop touching your stuff, except the "stuff" is the basketball and they’re 6'8" and incredibly athletic.
Why Cincinnati Is "Right There"
Wes Miller said it best after their recent win over Colorado: his team is resilient. They’ve been "right there" in almost every game, but "right there" doesn't count for much in the Big 12 standings.
The Bearcats have some serious talent, though. Baba Miller recently exploded for 25 points. When he’s on, Cincinnati looks like a tournament team. The problem is consistency. They shoot 64.2% from the free-throw line as a team. You can’t leave points on the table when you’re playing the No. 2 team in the country. It’s basketball suicide.
Rebounding: The Secret Sauce
If Cincinnati wants to pull the upset, it starts and ends on the glass. Look at the stats:
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- When UC gets 36+ rebounds: 7-1 record.
- When UC gets 35 or fewer: 2-7 record.
It’s not rocket science. If they don't dominate the boards, they don't win. Iowa State gives up very few second-chance points, ranking 13th nationally in opponent rebounds per game. It’s going to be a bloodbath under the rim.
The Mental Hurdle for Wes Miller
There is a psychological element to Iowa State vs Cincinnati basketball that shouldn't be ignored. The Bearcats are 0-7 as underdogs this season. They’ve also struggled in close games, going 0-3 in matchups decided by three points or fewer.
They know they can play with the big boys, but they haven't proven they can finish against them. Hosting the No. 2 team at Fifth Third Arena is the ultimate "prove it" moment. The fans will be rowdy, the atmosphere will be electric, and the tickets are going for as low as $27 on the secondary market—which is a steal for a top-5 matchup.
What to Watch For
Keep an eye on the turnover margin. T.J. Otzelberger’s Cyclones thrive on "chaos points." They force you into bad passes, jump on loose balls, and turn your mistakes into dunks before you even realize you lost the ball.
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If Day Day Thomas and Jizzle James can take care of the rock, Cincinnati has a puncher's chance. If they start throwing lazy cross-court passes? It’s over by halftime.
Honestly, the betting lines having Iowa State as 6.5-point favorites feels a bit low considering how they’ve handled Cincinnati in the past. But hey, that’s why they play the games.
Actionable Insights for the Big Game:
- Watch the Paint: If Cincinnati lets Joshua Jefferson establish deep post position early, Iowa State will cruise. UC needs to front the post and make the entry passes difficult.
- Target the Free Throw Line: Both teams struggle here (ISU 68.5%, UC 64.2%). In a close game, the team that actually hits their "charity stripe" shots walks away with the W.
- Pressure Milan: You cannot let Momcilovic get comfortable. Physicality is the only way to throw him off his rhythm.
- Win the First 5 Minutes: Cincinnati has a tendency to start slow. Against a defense like Iowa State's, playing from behind is a death sentence. They need an early 8-0 run to get the crowd involved and put the Cyclones on their heels.
Keep an eye on the injury reports leading up to tip-off, as a single missing rotation player can completely change the defensive switching schemes for both these squads. This is high-stakes Big 12 basketball at its finest.