If you were looking at Iowa a decade ago, you might’ve called it a "purple" state. Fast forward to now, and that purple has basically been bleached out by a massive wave of red. The iowa election results by county 2024 tell a story of a state that isn't just leaning Republican—it's practically sprinted in that direction.
Honestly, the biggest shocker wasn't just that Donald Trump won the state. It was the sheer margin. We’re talking about a 13.2 percentage point gap. That is the widest margin for any presidential candidate in the Hawkeye State since 1972. Think about that for a second. It beats out Reagan’s 1980 blowout.
How the Map Flipped: Iowa Election Results by County 2024
When you pull up the map, it's a sea of red with a few blue islands. In 2020, Joe Biden managed to hold onto six counties. By the time the 2024 dust settled, Kamala Harris was down to five.
The "flipper" was Scott County. For years, Scott County—home to Davenport and a big chunk of the Quad Cities—was a reliable Democratic stronghold. Obama won it big. Hillary Clinton won it. Biden won it in 2020 with about 50.4% of the vote. But in 2024, Trump snatched it back, pulling 51.2% compared to Harris’s 47.3%.
The remaining blue dots are exactly where you’d expect if you know Iowa geography: the university towns and the biggest metro hubs.
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- Polk County: The big one. Des Moines stayed blue, but even here, the margins felt different.
- Johnson County: Home of the University of Iowa. It remains the bluest spot in the state by a mile.
- Linn County: Cedar Rapids stayed in the Harris column.
- Story County: Ames and Iowa State University kept this one blue.
- Black Hawk County: Waterloo and Cedar Falls rounded out the Democratic survivors.
Outside of those five spots? It was a Republican rout. In places like Lyon County or Sioux County in the northwest, Trump was pulling numbers north of 80%. It's hard to overstate how much the rural-urban divide has calcified here.
The Selzer Poll and the "Shock" That Wasn't
We have to talk about the elephant in the room: the Ann Selzer poll. Just days before the election, the legendary "Gold Standard" pollster released a survey showing Harris up by 3 points in Iowa. It sent shockwaves through the national media. People started wondering if Iowa was suddenly back in play.
It wasn't.
The actual result was a 16-point swing away from that poll's prediction. It was such a massive miss that Selzer, a staple of Iowa politics for decades, actually announced her retirement from election polling shortly after. It goes to show that the ground has shifted in Iowa in ways that traditional polling metrics are struggling to catch. The rural turnout was just too massive to overcome.
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Down-Ballot Dominance and the House Races
The iowa election results by county 2024 didn't just affect the top of the ticket. The Republican momentum carried over into the U.S. House races, where the GOP swept all four seats.
In the 1st District, Mariannette Miller-Meeks had a real fight on her hands against Christina Bohannan. It was a nail-biter that stayed close all night, but Miller-Meeks eventually pulled it out.
Over in the 2nd District, Ashley Hinson cruised to a win over Sarah Corkery with about 57% of the vote. Zach Nunn held onto the 3rd District, and Randy Feenstra absolutely demolished his competition in the 4th, winning by more than 40 points.
Why Did Iowa Shift So Hard?
It’s not just one thing. It’s the economy, sure—inflation hits hard in places where you have to drive 30 miles to the nearest grocery store. But it’s also a cultural realignment. The Democratic party's brand has struggled to resonate in Iowa’s small towns.
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You see it in the "Pivot Counties." These are the places that voted for Obama twice and then switched to Trump. Iowa has more of these than almost any other state. In 2024, those counties didn't just stay red; they got redder.
Actionable Takeaways for Following Iowa Politics
If you're trying to make sense of where the state goes from here, keep these points in mind:
- Watch the "Big Five": If Democrats can't expand their lead in Polk or Linn, or if they continue to lose ground in mid-sized counties like Scott or Dubuque, the state is effectively out of reach for them nationally.
- Rural Turnout is King: The 2024 results showed that Republican "get out the vote" efforts in deep-red counties are incredibly efficient.
- The Independent Factor: Iowa has a huge number of registered "no party" voters. In 2024, these voters broke heavily for the GOP, especially on economic issues.
- Redistricting Impact: Keep an eye on the next round of census data and how it might shift those four House districts. Currently, the lines favor the GOP's geographic distribution.
The 2024 cycle basically confirmed that Iowa’s days as a swing state are over for the foreseeable future. It’s a solid red bastion now, and the county-level data proves it wasn't a fluke—it's a trend that's been building for a decade.
For anyone looking to dive deeper into the specific numbers, the Iowa Secretary of State's office provides the certified precinct-level data. You'll find that while the cities are growing, the rural surge is currently more than enough to keep the state firmly in the Republican column.