Honestly, it feels like we’ve been holding our breath for years. If you’ve been tracking the housing market, you know the vibe has been pretty grim. But today, Tuesday, January 13, 2026, the data actually looks... okay. Maybe even good?
The big headline for interest rates mortgage rates news today is that we are officially seeing 30-year fixed rates dip into the 5% range for some borrowers. Specifically, Zillow and NerdWallet are reporting average 30-year APRs hitting roughly 5.8% to 6.03%.
That is a massive psychological win. For the first time since late 2024, the "six-percent ceiling" has a few cracks in it.
The $200 Billion Move Nobody Expected
You might be wondering why rates suddenly took a dive this week. It wasn't just random luck. Yesterday, January 12, a directive came down from the White House for the government to purchase roughly $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
Basically, when the government steps in to buy these bonds, it creates massive demand. When demand for mortgage bonds goes up, the yields—and subsequently the interest rates you pay—go down.
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It’s a more direct lever than just waiting for the Federal Reserve to move the federal funds rate. Speaking of the Fed, they’re in a weird spot. We have a meeting coming up on January 27-28, and most analysts think they’ll just sit on their hands and hold rates steady at the current 3.5% to 3.75% range.
Breaking Down Today's Numbers
Let's get into the weeds of what people are actually seeing on their loan estimates today.
- 30-Year Fixed: The national average is hovering around 6.20%, but top-tier borrowers are seeing quotes as low as 5.8%.
- 15-Year Fixed: This is sitting at about 5.56%. It’s a bit of a climb from last week, but still a solid option if you want to crush your debt fast.
- Jumbo Loans: These are still the "expensive" kids on the block, averaging about 6.53% to 6.64%.
- Refinance Rates: If you're looking to swap out an old loan, 30-year refis are averaging about 6.52% APR.
The Inflation "Wildcard" and the Fed
Inflation is the ghost that won't stop haunting the market. This morning, the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report dropped. Prices rose 2.7% over the last year.
It’s not perfect—the Fed wants 2%—but it’s stable. Since it wasn't a "shocker" report, the bond market didn't freak out. That stability is exactly what’s allowing mortgage lenders to get a little more aggressive with their pricing.
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But there’s a catch. The labor market is starting to look a bit shaky. We only added about 50,000 jobs in December, which was lower than the 73,000 everyone expected. Unemployment is sitting at 4.4%.
Usually, a weakening job market is bad news for the economy but "good" news for mortgage rates. Why? Because it forces the Fed to consider deeper rate cuts to keep people employed. Goldman Sachs economists are already whispering that we might see a pause in January, followed by cuts in March and June.
What Most People Get Wrong About Refinancing
I see this all the time: people waiting for the "bottom." They want that 3% rate from 2021.
Kinda hate to be the bearer of bad news, but those rates were a once-in-a-lifetime anomaly. Experts like Ted Rossman at Bankrate and the team at Fannie Mae are pretty much in agreement that 5.5% to 6.0% is the "new normal" for 2026.
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If you bought your house back in 2023 or 2024 when rates were pushing 7.5% or 8%, today is actually a huge day for you. A drop from 7.5% to 6.2% on a $400,000 loan saves you roughly $350 a month. That’s a car payment. Or a lot of groceries.
The Conflict at the Top
There's a lot of drama behind the scenes right now regarding who will lead the Federal Reserve next. Jerome Powell’s term is winding down, and names like Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh are being tossed around.
The markets are a little jumpy about this because they want to know if the Fed will stay independent or if it’ll start taking direct orders on interest rates from the administration. This political "tug-of-war" is part of the reason why rates are bouncing around so much instead of just dropping in a straight line.
Real-World Advice: Should You Lock Now?
If you're under contract or seriously looking, the "wait and see" game is getting dangerous. Inventory is still low. As rates dip below 6%, a whole wave of buyers who were sitting on the sidelines is going to jump back in.
More buyers means more competition. More competition means home prices go up. You might save 0.25% on your interest rate by waiting three months, but if the house price jumps $15,000 in that time, you actually lost money.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check your current rate: If you are at 6.8% or higher, call a lender today to run a "break-even" analysis on a refinance.
- Get a localized quote: National averages are just that—averages. Your credit score and your specific zip code can swing your actual offer by half a percentage point.
- Watch the Jan 28 Fed meeting: Keep an eye on the "dot plot" they release. It will tell us exactly how many more cuts they’re planning for the rest of 2026.
- Don't ignore the 15-year: If you can swing the higher monthly payment, the interest savings over time are staggering compared to the 30-year.