Honestly, if you woke up this morning checking your banking app for a sudden drop in your credit card's APR, you might be a little disappointed. As of today, January 18, 2026, there hasn’t been a fresh interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The "big" news isn't a move that happened this morning—it’s the tense, high-stakes waiting game everyone is playing until the FOMC meets again on January 27–28.
Right now, the federal funds rate is sitting at a range of 3.50% to 3.75%.
That level was set back on December 10, 2025. It feels like forever ago in "Fed time," especially with the political circus currently surrounding Chairman Jerome Powell. You’ve probably heard the rumors: a criminal investigation into Powell, a new administration demanding deeper cuts, and a central bank trying to look like it isn’t being bullied.
But here’s the reality for your wallet. While the Fed hasn't moved today, the market has. If you’re looking at mortgages, things actually look kinda decent.
The Stealth Rate Cut: Mortgages are Already Dipping
You don't always need Jerome Powell to stand at a podium for your borrowing costs to change. Today, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are hovering right around 5.99%.
Finally.
Breaking that 6% psychological barrier is huge. Even though the "official" interest rate cut today is non-existent, lenders are already pricing in the expectation of future easing. Zillow Home Loans and other major trackers show that rates have actually dropped about 19 basis points over the last month.
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It’s a weird disconnect. The Fed is pausing, but the market is moving.
Why the drop? Investors are betting that the Fed will eventually have to cave, either to a softening labor market or the sheer weight of political pressure. We’re seeing a 10-year fixed rate at about 5.00% today, which is basically a signal from the banks saying, "We think the peak is long gone."
Why the Fed is Currently Clinging to a Pause
If you're wondering why they didn't just cut rates again to start the year, look at the December jobs report. It was... annoyingly good for the Fed.
Unemployment ticked down to 4.4%.
When more people have jobs, they spend money. When they spend money, inflation stays "sticky." Michael Feroli, the chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, recently noted that the case for a cut in the near term is looking pretty weak. He’s actually predicting the Fed might stay on hold for a huge chunk of 2026.
This isn't what the White House wants to hear.
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The Trump administration has been vocal—to put it mildly—about wanting rates much lower to juice the economy and offset the costs of new tariffs. There’s a real "showdown" vibe right now. The Fed wants to prove its independence. If they cut rates just because they were told to, they lose credibility. If they don't cut, they risk a recession or a full-blown legal war with the Department of Justice.
What Most People Miss About the "Dot Plot"
The Fed isn't a monolith. They’re a bunch of regional presidents and governors with wildly different ideas.
- The Doves: Some members, like FOMC Governor Stephen Miran, actually pushed for a 50-basis-point cut in December. They’re worried the labor market is more fragile than it looks.
- The Hawks: On the flip side, you have people like Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. She’s been pretty clear about wanting to hold steady until the spring to make sure inflation doesn't roar back.
What This Means for Your Money Right Now
Since we didn't get an interest rate cut today, you’re in a holding pattern. But a holding pattern doesn't mean you should do nothing.
High-yield savings accounts are still paying out remarkably well. If the Fed funds rate is at 3.64% (the effective rate today), you can still find accounts yielding north of 4.25% or 4.50%. That's essentially free money while the Fed stays indecisive.
On the debt side, it's a bit more "pick your poison."
If you’re carrying a balance on a credit card, you’re likely still seeing APRs in the 20% to 25% range. The Fed's tiny quarter-point cuts from late last year haven't trickled down to the average consumer in a meaningful way yet. It takes months—sometimes up to a year—for those changes to actually hit your monthly statement.
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Looking Ahead to the January 28 Decision
The world is watching that Wednesday afternoon in late January.
Market bettors on Polymarket and the CME FedWatch tool are divided. A few weeks ago, everyone was certain we’d get another 25-basis-point trim. Today? Most experts are leaning toward a pause.
The logic is simple: why move now when you can wait for one more month of inflation data?
If the Fed does pause on January 28, expect the markets to get a little cranky. Wall Street loves cheap money, and any delay in the "glide path" down to 3% usually causes a temporary dip in stocks.
Actionable Steps for the "No Cut" Reality
Since there was no interest rate cut today, here is how you should play your hand for the rest of the month:
- Lock in that mortgage or refi if you see 5.9%: Don't wait for the "perfect" bottom. If the January 28 meeting comes out hawkish, these rates could easily jump back above 6.2% overnight.
- Move cash to a CD: If you have a chunk of change sitting in a standard savings account earning 0.01%, you're losing. Grab a 6-month or 12-month CD now while rates are still anchored above 4%. Once the Fed starts cutting again in earnest (likely March or June), those yields will vanish.
- Audit your variable debt: If you have a HELOC or a variable-rate personal loan, check your latest statement. See how much your rate actually dropped after the December cut. If it didn't budge, call your bank.
- Ignore the "emergency" headlines: You'll see plenty of news about the Fed being "under fire." Unless they announce an unscheduled emergency meeting, the current 3.50%-3.75% range is the reality until the end of the month.
The bottom line? The Fed is trying to land a plane in a hurricane. They’re moving slowly on purpose. While we didn't get an interest rate cut today, the gradual trend is still toward lower rates—just maybe not as fast as your wallet would like.