If you’ve been watching the semiconductor space lately, you know the vibe around Intel has shifted. For years, "Chipzilla" was the punching bag of Silicon Valley. Everyone—literally everyone—was obsessed with Nvidia’s sky-high margins or TSMC’s manufacturing dominance. Intel? They were the guys who couldn't get their process nodes right and kept losing ground to AMD in the data center.
But it’s 2026 now. Things look different.
Honestly, the narrative has flipped so fast it’s giving people whiplash. Since the start of January 2026, Intel stock has already jumped over 30%. While the rest of the market is just sort of mulling around with 1% gains, Intel is behaving like a high-growth AI darling.
So, is intel stock a buy right now, or are you just chasing a ghost of a rally? Let’s get into the weeds of why this turnaround is actually sticking this time.
The 18A Node is No Longer a Myth
The biggest thing you have to understand is the 18A process node. This was the "make or break" moment for the company. For a long time, critics said Intel would never hit high-volume manufacturing (HVM) on a 1.8nm-class node. They were wrong.
As of this month, Intel has successfully ramped up 18A production. This isn't just a technical win; it’s a structural shift. They’ve managed to beat TSMC to the punch on two specific technologies: RibbonFET (their version of Gate-All-Around transistors) and PowerVia (backside power delivery).
Why does this matter to your portfolio? Because for the first time in nearly a decade, Intel actually has a "feature lead."
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The Panther Lake Effect
At CES 2026, we saw the launch of Panther Lake. This is the first consumer chip built entirely on the 18A process. It’s targeting the "Premium AI PC" market with a built-in NPU that hits 180 TOPS. Basically, it makes last year’s laptops look like calculators.
When you look at the financials, the Client Computing Group (CCG) is still Intel’s bread and butter, making up about 60% of their revenue. In late 2025, that segment saw 5% year-over-year growth, hitting $8.5 billion. With Panther Lake hitting the shelves, that number is expected to accelerate.
The "National Champion" Hedge
There’s a political reality here that most analysts were too scared to price in two years ago. Intel has effectively become the "National Champion" for U.S. semiconductor manufacturing.
With the shift toward "Sovereign AI" and geographic resiliency, the U.S. government has essentially backstopped Intel’s success. We aren't just talking about CHIPS Act grants anymore. We’re talking about equity investments and a clear mandate to bring advanced manufacturing back to American soil.
Lip-Bu Tan, who took the reins as CEO in early 2025, has been a godsend for the stock. Unlike his predecessor, Pat Gelsinger—who was the visionary architect—Tan is the "builder." He’s a finance-first guy. He’s been slashing the "engineering at any cost" culture and replacing it with "manufacturing for profit."
Institutional investors love this.
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- Vanguard and BlackRock significantly increased their stakes in late 2025.
- Nvidia even dropped $5 billion into Intel’s packaging capacity.
- SoftBank and the Trump administration have both signaled or made equity-based support moves.
When Nvidia—your supposed arch-rival—is giving you billions to use your factories, you know the "foundry" story is becoming a reality.
Examining the Intel Stock a Buy Argument
Let's talk numbers. Intel’s gross margins were in the toilet in 2024, dipping as low as 15% at one point. It was ugly. But the Q4 2025 numbers show a jump to 38.2%.
The company is finally profitable again. They posted $0.90 per share in GAAP earnings recently, which is a massive swing from the multi-billion dollar losses they were posting just eighteen months ago.
Currently, the stock is trading at a forward P/E of roughly 22x 2026 earnings. Is that cheap? No. But it’s a hell of a lot cheaper than the 70x+ multiples people are paying for other AI plays. You're buying a turnaround that has already survived the "emergency room" phase.
The Bear Case Isn't Dead
I’m not going to sit here and tell you it’s all sunshine. There are still huge risks.
- The 14A Gamble: Intel is already looking at the 1.4nm node (14A). They’ve said they won’t build the capacity for it unless they get firm external customer commitments. If they don’t land a whale like Apple or Qualcomm by late 2026, that could stall the momentum.
- AMD is Still Eating Lunch: In the server space, AMD’s "Venice" EPYC chips are still very hard to beat. Intel is gaining ground with Clearwater Forest, but they aren't the kings of the data center yet.
- The Yield Curve: While 18A is in HVM, yields are reportedly between 65% and 75%. For Intel to be "TSMC-level" profitable, they need to push that past 80%.
What Most People Get Wrong
People think Intel is still a "PC company." It’s not.
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Intel is now two companies in a trench coat: a chip designer and a merchant foundry. The foundry side is the one that will drive the stock to $60 or leave it at $40.
The backlog for the foundry business is now over $15 billion. That’s real money. Microsoft and AWS are already in the door for custom AI silicon. If you’re asking if intel stock a buy, you’re really asking if you believe they can become the "TSMC of the West."
Actionable Steps for Investors
If you're looking to play the Intel comeback, don't just dive in head-first. The stock has run up a lot in the last few weeks.
- Wait for the January 22nd Earnings: Intel is set to report full-year 2025 results. The market is expecting $13.37 billion in revenue. If they beat that and raise guidance for 18A production, the stock could fly.
- Watch the Foundry Wins: The next "Buy" signal isn't a technical chart pattern; it’s a press release. Keep an eye out for an "anchor customer" for the 14A node. That is the final seal of approval.
- Check the Yield Reports: If news leaks that 18A yields have hit 80%, the valuation gap between Intel and its peers will likely close even further.
Intel isn't the "safe dividend play" your grandpa owned. It’s a high-stakes, government-subsidized, technological turnaround. It’s risky, sure. But for the first time in a decade, the "Buy" argument is based on actual silicon, not just empty promises.
Next, you should monitor the January 22, 2026 earnings call transcript specifically for mentions of external 18A customer volume commitments.