The world watches the chimney. That’s the image everyone has in their head when they think about the process for choosing a pope. You’ve got thousands of people packed into St. Peter’s Square, squinting at a tiny metal pipe, waiting for a puff of white smoke that tells them the 1.3 billion Catholics on the planet finally have a leader. It’s dramatic. It’s ancient. Honestly, it’s a bit of a media circus. But behind that smoke is a legal and spiritual machine that has been refined over roughly two millennia, and it’s a lot more complicated than just a secret vote in a pretty room.
The whole thing is called a Conclave. The word literally means "with a key" (cum clave), because back in the day, the authorities had to lock the cardinals in to force them to make a decision. There was a famous instance in the 13th century where the election took nearly three years. The local villagers eventually got so fed up they ripped the roof off the building and put the cardinals on a diet of bread and water just to hurry them up. We don't do that anymore, obviously, but the sense of urgency and total isolation remains.
When the Throne Becomes Vacant
Everything starts with the Sede Vacante. That’s the period when the See of Rome is vacant. This happens either because a pope dies or, as we saw with Benedict XVI in 2013, he resigns. The moment a pope passes away, the Camerlengo—the Chamberlain of the Holy Roman Church—has to officially verify the death. There’s an old legend that he hits the pope on the forehead with a silver hammer while calling his baptismal name, but the Vatican says that’s just a myth. What actually happens is more administrative. He seals the pope’s private apartments and breaks the Fisherman’s Ring.
Breaking that ring is a big deal. It’s the pope's official seal. Destroying it ensures that no one can forge documents or "fudge" official decrees during the transition. From that second until a new man is elected, the Church is essentially in a holding pattern. No new major laws. No changing the structure of the Vatican. It’s a caretaker government run by the College of Cardinals.
The Lockdown: Entering the Conclave
The process for choosing a pope really kicks into high gear about 15 to 20 days after the vacancy begins. This gives cardinals from all over the world—places like Manila, Nairobi, and New York—time to get to Rome. They stay in a place called the Domus Sanctae Marthae, which is basically a Vatican hotel. But once the Conclave starts, they aren't allowed to talk to anyone on the outside. No phones. No newspapers. No Twitter. The Vatican even uses signal jammers to make sure no one is sneaking a peek at what the pundits are saying on the news.
They walk into the Sistine Chapel under Michelangelo’s "Last Judgment." It’s heavy. They take an oath of secrecy. If a cardinal leaks what happens inside, they face automatic excommunication. That’s about as serious as it gets in the Catholic world.
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Who actually gets to vote?
Not every cardinal gets a ballot. You have to be under the age of 80. As of right now, there are usually around 120 "cardinal electors." If you hit your 80th birthday the day before the Pope dies, you’re out of luck. You can attend the preliminary meetings, known as General Congregations, but you aren't going into the Chapel for the vote.
The voting itself is a ritual of precision.
Each cardinal writes a name on a rectangular piece of paper. They try to disguise their handwriting so no one knows who voted for whom. Then, one by one, they walk up to the altar, hold the ballot up, and swear they are voting for the person they believe "before God" should be elected. They drop the ballot into a chalice.
The Math of the Holy Spirit
You can’t just win by a simple majority. To become the Bishop of Rome, you need a two-thirds majority. If there are 115 cardinals in the room, you need 77 votes. They vote once on the first afternoon, then twice every morning and twice every afternoon after that.
If they go three days without a winner, they take a break for prayer and informal chatting. This is where the real "politicking" happens, though cardinals hate that word. They’re looking for a consensus. They’re looking for someone who can bridge the gap between the "progressives" and the "conservatives," or someone who understands the administrative mess of the Roman Curia.
After several rounds of failed voting, the rules used to allow for a shift to a simple majority, but Pope Benedict XVI changed that back in 2007. He wanted to make sure the new pope had broad support, so it’s two-thirds or bust.
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Black Smoke, White Smoke, and Chemicals
This is the part everyone waits for. The ballots are tied together with a needle and thread, then burned. If no one is elected, they add a chemical compound (it used to be wet straw, but that was unreliable) to make the smoke black. Fumata nera.
When someone finally hits that two-thirds mark, they burn the ballots with a different chemical to produce white smoke—fumata bianca. They also ring the bells of St. Peter’s because, let’s be honest, sometimes the smoke looks a bit grey and everyone gets confused. In 2005, when Benedict was elected, the bells were the only way people knew for sure.
Once the vote is settled, the junior cardinal deacon calls the Secretary of the College of Cardinals into the chapel. The Dean of the College asks the winner: "Do you accept your canonical election as Supreme Pontiff?"
If he says "Accepto," he is officially the pope at that exact moment. He then chooses a papal name. This is a huge statement of intent. If he picks "Francis," he’s signaling a focus on the poor. If he picks "Pius," he’s likely signaling a more traditional, hardline approach.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Process
People think the cardinals are just picking their favorite friend. In reality, the process for choosing a pope is heavily influenced by the "General Congregations" that happen before the lockdown. This is where the cardinals give speeches about the state of the Church.
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They talk about the Vatican bank. They talk about sexual abuse scandals. They talk about the growth of the Church in the Global South. By the time they actually enter the Sistine Chapel, they usually have a "shortlist" of papabili—men who are considered "pope-able."
- The "Great Campaigner" Fallacy: There is no official campaigning. If a cardinal starts openly asking for votes, it usually backfires. There’s an old Roman saying: "He who enters the Conclave a pope, leaves it a cardinal." Basically, if you think you’re a shoo-in, you’re probably not.
- The Nationality Factor: For centuries, it was always an Italian. That streak broke with John Paul II (Polish) in 1978, then Benedict XVI (German), then Francis (Argentinian). The "home-field advantage" for Italians is mostly gone because the College of Cardinals is now more international than it has ever been.
From the Sistine Chapel to the Balcony
Before the world sees him, the new pope goes into a small room off the Sistine Chapel called the "Room of Tears." It’s called that because, supposedly, the weight of the office hits the man and he breaks down. He changes into his white cassock—they keep three sizes ready (small, medium, and large) because they don't know who’s going to win.
Then comes the "Habemus Papam" announcement. The senior Cardinal Deacon walks onto the central balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica and says the famous words: "Annuntio vobis gaudium magnum: Habemus Papam!" (I announce to you a great joy: We have a Pope!)
Why the Process Matters for the Future
The process for choosing a pope isn't just about religious tradition. It’s a geopolitical event. The Pope is the only absolute monarch in the West. He controls the diplomatic corps of the Holy See, which has a seat at the UN and influence in almost every country on earth.
As we look toward the next Conclave, whenever that may be, the "math" of the College of Cardinals is the most important thing to watch. Pope Francis has appointed the vast majority of the current electors. These men tend to share his vision of a "poorer church for the poor." However, the Conclave is famous for surprises. The Holy Spirit, as the cardinals say, has a way of upending the best-laid plans of men.
If you want to understand where the Church is going, don't just look at the smoke. Look at the list of cardinals being created every year. That is the real indicator of the future.
Practical Insights for Following the Next Conclave
- Monitor the "Consistories": This is when the Pope creates new cardinals. Watch for how many come from the "peripheries" (Asia, Africa, Latin America) versus the "center" (Europe and North America). The more diverse the College, the more unpredictable the vote.
- Study the "General Congregations": When the Sede Vacante begins, pay attention to the themes mentioned by cardinals in interviews. If multiple cardinals mention "transparency" or "evangelization," that’s the job description they are writing for the next guy.
- Watch the "Kingmakers": Often, the person who becomes Pope isn't the one who started with the most votes, but the one who the "kingmaker" cardinals (those with high influence) eventually throw their weight behind after the third or fourth ballot.
The process for choosing a pope remains one of the world's last great mysteries. It’s a mix of high-stakes politics and deep-seated faith, played out in a room where the doors are literally locked from the inside. It’s a system designed to survive for centuries, and so far, it has.