The rivalry between the Indianapolis Colts vs Jaguars shouldn't be this lopsided. On paper, it makes no sense. You have a franchise in the Colts that has historically been the gold standard of the AFC South, and a Jaguars team that, until very recently, was basically the league's basement dweller.
Yet, here we are in 2026, and the "Jax Curse" is still the weirdest thing in professional football.
If you're a Colts fan, the flight to Jacksonville probably feels like a trip into the Bermuda Triangle. It doesn't matter who the quarterback is. Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Carson Wentz, or the bizarre 2025 cameo from a 44-year-old Philip Rivers—the result usually involves a lot of humid frustration and a loss.
The 2025 Season: A New Low for Indy
The most recent chapter of Indianapolis Colts vs Jaguars was particularly brutal for the horseshoe. The two teams met twice in late 2025, and Jacksonville didn't just win—they looked like the superior program.
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On December 7, 2025, at EverBank Stadium, the Jags basically dismantled Indy 36-19. It was wet, it was cold (by Florida standards), and it was a total mess for the Colts. Daniel Jones, who had been starting for Indy after Anthony Richardson’s orbital fracture earlier in the year, went down with a season-ending Achilles tear in the first half.
Enter Riley Leonard. He tried. He really did. But the Jaguars' defense, led by Liam Coen’s aggressive schemes, forced three turnovers. Travis Etienne Jr. ran through the Colts' front like they were a high school JV squad, racking up two scores.
Then came the rematch on December 28. This one was at Lucas Oil Stadium, where the Colts usually have the upper hand. They didn't. Trevor Lawrence didn't even throw a touchdown, and the Jags still won 23-17.
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Indy brought Philip Rivers out of a five-year retirement for that game. Talk about desperation. Rivers looked every bit of 44, throwing a late interception to Antonio Johnson that effectively ended the Colts' playoff hopes and kept their losing streak alive.
Why the Jaguars Own This Matchup
Honestly, it’s about the trenches. For years, the Colts have tried to build around high-ceiling athletes, while the Jaguars have focused on mean-spirited defensive ends. Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker have made a hobby out of terrorizing whoever is playing quarterback for Indianapolis.
In that December 2025 win, Hines-Allen even notched a sack-safety. That's the kind of play that just demoralizes a locker room.
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- The Travel Factor: There’s something about the humidity in Jacksonville that seems to zap the Colts' energy.
- Defensive Identity: The Jags have consistently ranked top-tier in run defense, specifically neutralizing Jonathan Taylor. In their last meeting, they held him to just 3.3 yards per carry.
- Quarterback Stability: Trevor Lawrence has finally turned into the "generational" talent everyone promised. He’s 12-4 as a starter this year.
Looking Ahead to 2026
The 2026 schedule is already set, and the Indianapolis Colts vs Jaguars series will be the focal point of the AFC South once again. Indy is finishing third in the division, meaning they have a slightly easier "crossover" schedule, but they still have to face a Jags team that finished 13-4 and won the division.
Anthony Richardson is the massive "if" here. He spent most of 2025 on IR. If he can stay healthy, his mobility changes the math for the Jaguars' pass rush. You can't just pin your ears back and chase the QB if Richardson can break off a 60-yard run at any second.
Indy also has to fix their secondary. They got shredded by Brian Thomas Jr. in the last matchup. If they don't find a way to cover the deep ball, 2026 is going to look a lot like 2025.
Actionable Strategy for Following the Rivalry
If you're betting or just analyzing these teams, stop looking at the overall roster talent and start looking at the venue. The "Home Field Advantage" in this specific rivalry is one of the strongest statistical anomalies in the NFL.
- Watch the Injury Report for the Trenches: The Jaguars' success against Indy is almost entirely dependent on Josh Hines-Allen's health. If he's out, the Colts' offense suddenly breathes.
- Monitor Anthony Richardson’s Training Camp: By summer 2026, we’ll know if he’s back to 100%. His presence is the only thing that breaks the Jaguars' defensive script.
- Respect the December Slide: Historically, the Colts struggle in late-season divisional games. If the rematch is in December again, edge toward the Jags.
The Jaguars have officially moved past being the "little brother" in this relationship. With a division title in their pocket and a 13-win season, they are the hunted now. The Colts have a long offseason to figure out how to stop the bleeding before the 2026 kickoff.