Honestly, if you're a Colts fan, you've probably spent the last few years waiting for the "big splash." We always hear about how much money Chris Ballard has to play with. But looking at the Indianapolis Colts salary cap situation for 2026, things are getting weird. It’s not just about having a pile of cash anymore. It’s about who is actually worth the check.
The team is heading into the 2026 offseason with roughly $54 million to $58 million in projected cap space, depending on where the final NFL threshold lands. Most experts, including those over at Spotrac and Over the Cap, are eyeing a league-wide cap of around $303 million to $305 million. That sounds like a lot of room. It isn't. Not when you realize the Colts only have about 39 players under contract and some massive individual cap hits are about to come due.
The Massive Hits No One is Talking About
We need to talk about the "Big Three" on this roster because their 2026 numbers are staggering.
First off, Michael Pittman Jr. is scheduled to carry a cap hit of $29 million. For a guy who just put up an 80-catch, 784-yard season, that is a tough pill to swallow. Then you have DeForest Buckner at $26.6 million and Quenton Nelson at $24.2 million.
🔗 Read more: New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks: What Most People Get Wrong
When three players take up nearly $80 million of your space, your "flexibility" evaporates. Basically, Ballard is staring at a situation where he either has to extend these guys to lower their immediate hits or start making some really unpopular cuts.
- Michael Pittman Jr.: Can you really pay a possession receiver $29 million? Probably not. An extension that drops his 2026 hit to the $15 million range feels like the only move.
- DeForest Buckner: He's 32. He's still a beast, but he only had four sacks last year. Paying him and Grover Stewart (who is also 32) a combined $40 million on the interior defensive line is roster-building suicide.
- Quenton Nelson: He’s still PFF’s darling, but he’s entering a contract year. He’ll likely want a deal near $23 million a year.
The Quarterback Quandary: Daniel Jones vs. Anthony Richardson
This is where it gets messy. The Anthony Richardson experiment hasn't exactly gone to plan. Between the injuries and the accuracy struggles, the Colts are in a spot where they’ve been leaning on Daniel Jones (who, let's be real, was a shock signing to begin with).
Richardson is still cheap—he's only a $10.8 million cap hit in 2026—and it's all guaranteed. You can't cut him. You can't really trade him because his value is at an all-time low. But Daniel Jones is a free agent. If the Colts want to keep Jones, they’re looking at a deal that probably starts at $40 million per year.
💡 You might also like: New Jersey Giants Football Explained: Why Most People Still Get the "Home Team" Wrong
If they pay Jones, the Indianapolis Colts salary cap suddenly looks very thin. You’d be looking at a roster where five or six players take up 60% of the total cap. That’s how you end up with no depth and a 7-10 record.
Cutting the Dead Wood
If Ballard wants to actually sign free agents—maybe a lockdown corner or another pass rusher—he has to find "easy outs." There are a few players who might be looking for new homes soon:
- Grover Stewart: Cutting or trading him saves $12.25 million. He’s the heart of the defense, but at 32, that's a lot of money for a run-stuffer.
- Braden Smith: His neck injury in 2025 was scary. If he decides to hang it up or if the team moves on to a younger guy like Jalen Travis, that clears up significant space.
- Kenny Moore II: He’s been a staple, but a post-June 1st cut could save nearly $10 million.
Why the Alec Pierce Breakout Changes Everything
Alec Pierce finally had the year everyone was waiting for. But now, he’s an unrestricted free agent. In the current market, a WR2 with his deep-threat ability is going to command $18 million to $20 million easily.
📖 Related: Nebraska Cornhuskers Women's Basketball: What Really Happened This Season
If the Colts keep Pittman and Pierce, that’s roughly $45 million a year tied up in two receivers. Is that a winning formula? Probably not, unless your quarterback is elite. It puts the front office in a "Sophie's Choice" situation: do you keep the veteran leader (Pittman) or the ascending deep threat (Pierce)?
Actionable Steps for the Colts Offseason
If you’re tracking the Indianapolis Colts salary cap, watch for these specific moves in March. These aren't just guesses; they are the financial levers the team must pull to survive.
- Monitor the 5th-Year Option: The team has to decide on Anthony Richardson’s 5th-year option for 2027 soon. Declining it is almost a certainty at this point, which tells you everything you need to know about his long-term future in Indy.
- Look for the "Buckner Restructure": If Buckner isn't traded by the draft, expect a two-year extension that adds "void years" to the end of his deal. This is the classic Ballard move to kick the can down the road.
- The Nick Cross Extension: He’s been a bright spot at safety. Expect a 4-year deal worth around $13 million annually. Locking him up now prevents his price from skyrocketing even further.
- Watch the Waiver Wire for Offensive Line Depth: With Braden Smith’s future uncertain and Quenton Nelson needing a new deal, the Colts will likely look for "budget" veterans to fill out the 53-man roster.
The reality is that the Colts aren't as "rich" as the raw cap space numbers suggest. They are a top-heavy team with aging stars and a massive question mark at the most expensive position on the field. The 2026 offseason isn't about spending; it's about surgery.
To keep an eye on these developments, check the official NFL transaction wire starting March 15, when roster bonuses for players like Michael Pittman Jr. become due. That’s the real deadline for when the "money magic" has to happen.