Tensions between India and Pakistan are kinda like a dormant volcano. You know it’s there, you see the steam, and every few years, it just blows. Right now, in January 2026, we’re living in the fallout of the massive May 2025 explosion.
Honestly, the "handshake in Dhaka" between S. Jaishankar and Ayaz Sadiq earlier this month has everyone talking. Was it just a polite gesture? Or is it the first crack in the ice after a year that saw missiles flying across the border?
The Year South Asia Almost Burned
To understand why a simple handshake is news, you've got to remember the absolute chaos of last year. In April 2025, a brutal attack in Pahalgam killed 26 people. India didn't just issue a "strongly worded statement" this time. They went for the jugular.
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New Delhi did something previously unthinkable: they suspended the 60-year-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).
If you aren't a policy nerd, here is the gist: that treaty is Pakistan's lifeline. It governs the rivers that feed their farms. By putting it "in abeyance," India essentially signaled that the old rules of engagement are dead. Pakistan called it an act of war.
Then came May. Operation Sindoor.
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India launched missile strikes targeting what they called militant infrastructure. Pakistan retaliated with its own strikes. For four days, the world held its breath. It was the most serious military confrontation since the 1999 Kargil War.
Cricket: The Only Thing We Still Share?
Even the pitch wasn't safe from the politics. Last February, during the ICC Champions Trophy 2025, India and Pakistan faced off in Dubai. It’s basically the only place they play now—neutral ground.
Virat Kohli—classic Kohli—hit an unbeaten 100 to lead India to a six-wicket win. But even that victory felt heavy. While fans were cheering in the stands, diplomats were back home shredding agreements.
The tournament ended with India lifting the trophy after beating New Zealand in the final, but the real story was the "neutral venue" policy. The BCCI and PCB finally had to admit that India won't be traveling to Pakistan, and Pakistan won't be heading to India anytime soon.
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What’s Happening Right Now?
So, where does that leave us today, January 17, 2026?
- The Water War is Real: Pakistan’s Minister Rana Tanveer is currently at a conference in Hyderabad (the one in Sindh), begging the international community to help save the Indus Waters Treaty. They see India’s suspension of the treaty as an existential threat.
- The Afghan Factor: Here’s a twist nobody saw coming. India just confirmed that a Taliban-appointed diplomat has started work at the Afghan embassy in New Delhi. Why does this matter for Pakistan? Because Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban is currently in the toilet. India is basically moving into a space that used to be Islamabad’s backyard.
- The Trump Effect: President Trump’s return to the White House has flipped the script. He’s been surprisingly warm toward Pakistan’s military leadership, even authorizing a $686 million F-16 upgrade. At the same time, he’s slapped 50% tariffs on Indian goods. It’s making New Delhi very nervous.
Is a Thaw Actually Possible?
Some analysts, like Mustafa Hyder Sayed in Islamabad, think 2026 could be the year of "minimal engagement." We aren't talking about peace treaties and hugs. We’re talking about the bare minimum—setting up guardrails so another Pahalgam doesn't lead to a nuclear exchange.
But the hurdles are massive. India still says "terror and talks don't go together." Pakistan says "give us our water and talk about Kashmir."
It’s a deadlock.
What You Should Watch For
If you’re trying to keep track of this, don’t look at the big speeches. Look at the small stuff.
- The Indus Waters Commission: If the two sides meet to talk about water data, that’s a huge win.
- Trade Figures: Watch the border at Wagah. If a single truck of onions or sugar crosses, it means someone is talking behind the scenes.
- Consular Access: Are they releasing elderly prisoners or fishermen? That’s usually the first sign of a "thaw."
Next Steps for Staying Informed:
The best way to track this is to follow the official Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) briefings in India and the Foreign Office (FO) transcripts in Pakistan. They usually drop on Thursdays. Also, keep an eye on the "Indus Waters" headlines—in 2026, water is becoming more explosive than land.