You know that feeling when you pick up a book expecting a standard, steamy military romance but end up staring at a wall for twenty minutes after the final page? That’s the Rebecca Yarros effect. Most people found her through Fourth Wing and the dragon-riding chaos of Basgiath, but if you haven’t doubled back to her 2023 standalone, you're missing the rawest parts of her writing. In the Likely Event isn't just another "soldier meets girl" story. It is a decade-long exercise in emotional masochism.
Honestly, it's kind of wild how much this book mirrors the intensity of her fantasy work while being grounded in the terrifying reality of a plane crash and a war zone. If you’re looking for a light beach read, this isn't it. But if you want a story that basically treats your heart like a stress ball, you’ve come to the right place.
The 90-Second Meet-Cute That Ruined Everything
Let’s talk about that opening. Most romances start with a spilled coffee or an accidental bump in a hallway. Rebecca Yarros decides to start hers with a plane falling into the Missouri River.
Izzy Astor is an anxious flyer with a brain full of crash statistics. Nate Phelan is a guy on his way to basic training with nothing to lose. They have about ninety seconds of genuine, sparky connection before the engines fail and the world ends. It’s a brilliant narrative hook because it bonds them through trauma before they even know each other’s last names.
Why the Dual Timeline Actually Works
Usually, I’m the first person to complain about jumping back and forth in time. It often feels like a cheap way to build suspense, right? But here, the structure is the point.
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- The Past (2011–2018): We see the "chance encounters." They find each other in bars, on vacations, and in fleeting moments that never quite align. It’s the "right person, wrong time" trope turned up to eleven.
- The Present (2021): This is the high-stakes part. They’re in Kabul, Afghanistan, during the chaotic U.S. withdrawal. Nate is Special Forces, and his job is to protect Izzy, who is now a congressional aide.
The contrast is jarring. You go from a sun-drenched day in Palau to the dusty, terrifying tension of an embassy under siege. It makes you realize that while they were busy "finding themselves" or waiting for the perfect moment, the world didn't stop moving.
In the Likely Event Rebecca Yarros: The Controversy of the Setting
We have to address the elephant in the room. Setting a romance novel against the backdrop of the 2021 fall of Kabul is... bold. Some readers felt it was a bit too soon or perhaps "Americanized" the tragedy.
But here’s the thing: Yarros is an "army brat" and a military spouse. She knows this world. When she writes about the "burn bags" in the embassy or the specific brand of exhaustion that comes with a third deployment, it doesn't feel like she’s playing dress-up. She’s pulling from a culture she lives in.
Nate Phelan isn't your typical "alpha" hero who solves everything with a gun. He’s struggling. Hard. He’s got PTSD, he’s hallucinating, and he’s terrified that he’s not good enough for Izzy. It’s a much more nuanced look at military life than we usually get in contemporary romance.
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Is Izzy Actually Likeable?
I’ve seen a lot of reviews calling Izzy "selfish" or "stubborn." And yeah, she is. She’s obsessed with her sister Serena’s safety to the point of putting herself in ridiculous danger. She pushes Nate away because she’s terrified of being abandoned, thanks to her truly awful parents.
But isn't that more realistic? If you survived a plane crash at eighteen and then spent a decade pining for a guy who keeps disappearing into war zones, you’d probably have some sharp edges too. Their relationship is messy because they are messy people.
What Most Readers Missed in the Ending
If you’ve finished the book, you know about the "twist." No spoilers here, but it recontextualizes every single decision Nate made since 2018.
A lot of people think the book is just about a second chance at love. I’d argue it’s actually about the cost of service. Not just the physical cost, but the way it fractures your perception of reality. The fact that they get a Happily Ever After (HEA) feels earned because they both had to crawl through literal and metaphorical glass to get there.
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Actionable Takeaways for Readers
If you’re planning to dive into In the Likely Event, or if you just finished and are feeling that post-book void, here’s how to handle it:
- Check the Trigger Warnings: This book deals heavily with PTSD, combat, and plane crashes. It’s intense. If you’re in a sensitive headspace, maybe save it for later.
- Don't Skip the Flashbacks: It’s tempting to rush to the Kabul scenes because they’re so high-action, but the emotional payoff in the finale depends entirely on those small moments from 2014 and 2018.
- Look for the Symbols: Pay attention to the engagement ring and the "likely event" phrase itself. Yarros uses these as anchors throughout the ten-year gap.
- Explore Her Backlist: If the military aspect was your favorite part, go back and read the Flight & Glory series. It’s where she really honed her voice for this kind of "high-stakes" romance.
The beauty of this book is that it reminds us that love isn't always a straight line. Sometimes it's a series of crashes, near-misses, and 90-second conversations that somehow last a lifetime. Basically, if you want a story that makes you feel everything at once, this is the one.
Next Steps for the Yarros Obsessed:
To get the most out of your reading experience, compare the "Protective Hero" archetype in In the Likely Event to Xaden Riorson in Fourth Wing. You'll start to see a very specific, very compelling pattern in how Yarros writes about sacrifice and devotion. Grab a box of tissues, find a quiet corner, and prepare for the emotional wreckage. It’s worth it.