You’re staring at 14-Across. The clue says "Very likely," and you’ve got four empty boxes mocking you. Your brain immediately jumps to "PROB" or maybe "SOON," but then you realize the constructor is playing a different game. If you've spent any amount of time tackling the Grey Lady's grid, you know that in all probability nyt searchers aren't just looking for a dictionary definition. They are looking for the "Crosswordese" translation that turns a vague hunch into a completed Saturday puzzle.
Language is messy.
The New York Times Crossword, edited by Will Shortz and a rotating cast of brilliant constructors like Robyn Weintraub or Joel Fagliano, treats probability as a playground of synonyms. Words like ODDS, ASARELE, or the classic BELIKE (though that’s a bit archaic even for them) pop up constantly. Honestly, when people search for "in all probability," they are usually hunting for the elusive four-letter answer: ODDS. Or perhaps the more descriptive LIY.
No, wait. That's not right. It's almost always APROPOS or LIKELY.
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The Anatomy of the Likely Answer
Why does this matter? Because the NYT Crossword isn't just a test of vocabulary; it’s a test of pattern recognition. When a clue uses a phrase like "in all probability," it’s often a signal for a specific part of speech. If the clue is an adverbial phrase, the answer usually is too.
You’ve probably noticed that the difficulty ramps up as the week progresses. A Monday clue for "in all probability" might be a dead-simple LIKELY. By Friday, they’re hitting you with AS NOT (as in "as likely as not"). It’s frustrating. It’s brilliant. It’s why we pay for the subscription.
Let’s talk about the word ODDS.
In the context of probability, "odds" is the king of the three-to-four letter filler slots. But constructors are getting craftier. They’ll use "In all probability" to lead you toward MAYBE or PERHAPS, then pull the rug out with something like TEN TO ONE. That’s a common trick. They use a three-word phrase in the clue to justify a three-word phrase in the grid.
When "In All Probability" Becomes a Trap
I've seen it happen a thousand times. You get a "C" and an "E" and you're convinced the answer is CHANCE. It fits the vibe. It fits the "probability" theme. But the NYT loves to lean into the "in all" part of the phrase. This often points toward MOSTLY or CHANCES ARE.
Here’s the thing: crossword solvers often forget about the "Schrödinger’s Cat" of crosswords—the "Era" vs. "Are" or "Ere" problem. Probability clues have their own version of this. Is it APT? Is it LIAB (short for liable)?
Specifically, if you see "In all probability" and the grid requires six letters, you should immediately check for AS NOT. It’s a classic Shortz-era staple. It feels clunky in real conversation. "Will it rain?" "As not." Nobody says that! But in the world of 15x15 grids, it’s gold.
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The Math Behind the Grid
Probability isn't just a clue theme; it's how the puzzles are built. Modern constructors use software like Crossword Compiler or CrossFire. These programs suggest words based on letter patterns. When a constructor has a difficult corner with a lot of vowels, they search for words that fit.
This is why we see the same "probability" words over and over. PROB (3 letters), EST (3 letters, for estimated), LY (as a suffix).
If you’re stuck on a clue related to in all probability nyt, look at the intersections. If your "Down" clues are solid, the "Across" will reveal itself. Don't marry your first guess. If "LIKELY" doesn't work, try "PROBLY"—though the NYT usually avoids such informal abbreviations unless the clue specifically indicates slang with a word like "informally" or "to a homey."
The "Most Likely" Candidates
If you are looking for the most frequent answers for this specific clue type in the NYT archive, here they are:
- ODDS (The absolute favorite for 4-letter slots)
- LIKELY (The Monday/Tuesday standard)
- AS NOT (The mid-week trickster)
- CHANCES ARE (The long-form Friday/Saturday answer)
- PROBABLY (Rarely the answer because it’s too on-the-nose, but it happens)
- TENTONE (The numeric favorite)
Strategy for the Professional Solver
Stop looking at the clue in isolation. The NYT Crossword is a cohesive ecosystem. If the clue for in all probability nyt is at 1-Across, it sets the tone for the entire puzzle.
Usually, the "in all probability" clue is what we call a "linker." It connects two harder thematic elements. If you can't get it, move to the corners. The NYT loves to place common consonants like R, S, T, and L at the ends of these probability words. If the word is "LIKELY," that 'Y' is a gateway to a whole new section of the grid.
Kinda makes you realize how much we rely on these little linguistic crutches, doesn't it?
Actually, let's look at the actual stats. According to databases like XWord Info, the word "PROBABILITY" itself has appeared as a clue thousands of times, but the answer is rarely a direct synonym. It's often a meta-reference. For example, a clue might be "Probability's partner," leading to STATISTICS. Or "High probability," leading to A SURE THING.
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Practical Steps for Your Next Puzzle
- Count the squares first. It sounds basic, but in the heat of a Thursday rebus, people forget. If it's four letters and involves probability, pencil in ODDS lightly.
- Check for "As Not." If the clue is "In all probability" and you have _S _ O T, don't overthink it. It's the NYT's favorite weird phrase.
- Look for the "Indication." Does the clue end in a question mark? If it’s "In all probability?", the answer might be a pun. Maybe something like FAT CHANCE (which is actually the opposite of the literal meaning).
- Verify the tense. "In all probability" is present tense. Ensure your answer isn't LIKED or PROBABLE if the grid requires an adverbial form.
- Use the "Crossword Tracker" method. If you're truly stuck, look for the most common answers for that specific letter count in the NYT history. The archive doesn't lie.
Don't let a single clue ruin your streak. The NYT Crossword is meant to be a struggle, but it's a fair one. Usually. Except for those Saturdays when the clues feel like they were written in a different language. In those cases, in all probability, you just need to walk away for ten minutes and come back with fresh eyes. The answer is usually simpler than you think.