Buying into a company that’s over 140 years old feels a bit like investing in a legacy museum, doesn't it? But then you look at the 2025 performance of Imperial Oil Ltd stock, and the numbers start to tell a much more aggressive story than the "old oil" label suggests. Honestly, it’s kinda fascinating. While the rest of the world is obsessing over tech valuations and AI breakthroughs, this Calgary-based giant has been quietly printing cash and handing it back to shareholders like it’s going out of style.
You’ve probably seen the ticker IMO popping up on your screen more often lately.
The stock spent much of late 2025 hovering near the $85–$95 range on the NYSE American, showing a resilience that caught a lot of "bears" off guard. By January 2026, the market value was sitting around $65 billion. That’s not small change. But here is the thing most people get wrong: they think Imperial is just a proxy for the price of a barrel of Western Canadian Select. It’s not. It’s a massive, integrated machine that survives even when oil prices decide to take a nosedive.
The Exxon Connection and the IMO Advantage
You can’t talk about Imperial Oil Ltd stock without talking about the 800-pound gorilla in the room: ExxonMobil. They own about 69.6% of Imperial. Some investors hate this because they feel Imperial is just a "branch office" for Texas-based decisions. Others love it. Why? Because Imperial gets to use Exxon’s proprietary technology and global scale without paying the full bill for the R&D.
Take the Strathcona refinery near Edmonton. In August 2025, Imperial officially fired up Canada’s largest renewable diesel facility there. We’re talking about a $720 million investment that produces 20,000 barrels of renewable diesel a day. They’re literally turning canola oil into fuel. This isn't just a "green" PR stunt. It’s a strategic hedge against carbon taxes and changing fuel regulations in Western Canada.
It’s also a great example of how they leverage the parent company. They used a specific, proprietary process from ExxonMobil to get that plant running. If you're holding the stock, you're basically getting a slice of Exxon’s tech with a Canadian tax treatment and a purely Canadian asset base.
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What the Numbers Actually Say
Let’s look at the cold, hard data from the end of 2025. In the third quarter of 2025, Imperial beat earnings expectations by a solid 11%, even though their revenue missed the mark. That happens when you’re incredibly good at cutting costs.
- Net Income: Roughly $539 million in Q3 2025 (though that included a one-time hit for a campus impairment).
- Operating Cash Flow: A massive $1.8 billion in just three months.
- Production: They hit a 30-year high, pumping 462,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
The Kearl oil sands site is the star of the show. It averaged 316,000 barrels per day in late 2025. That’s huge. It’s also where they’ve managed to get cash costs down to about $15.13 per barrel. Think about that. If oil is at $70, they are making a massive spread.
The Dividend Machine: 31 Years and Counting
If you're into dividends, you probably already know that Imperial is a "Dividend Aristocrat" in the Canadian market. They’ve increased their payout for 31 consecutive years. For the first quarter of 2026, they’re paying out $0.72 per share.
But the real story isn't the dividend. It’s the buybacks.
In the third quarter of 2025 alone, they spent $1.47 billion buying back their own shares. They’ve retired about 31% of their shares since 2020. This is a massive tailwind for the stock price. When there are fewer shares to go around, each remaining share owns a bigger piece of that $1.8 billion cash flow. It’s basically a slow-motion leveraged buyout of themselves.
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Why 2026 Looks Different for Imperial Oil Ltd Stock
There’s a bit of a shift happening right now. For 2026, the company is guiding for capital spending between $2 billion and $2.2 billion. They aren't just sitting on their hands. They are pushing Kearl toward a 300,000-barrel-a-day target and Cold Lake toward 165,000.
However, it’s not all sunshine. Analysts are currently a bit "meh" on the stock, with a consensus rating of "Hold."
Part of the reason is a planned restructuring. They’re cutting about 20% of their roles by 2027 to save another $150 million a year. While that’s good for the bottom line, it creates some short-term noise and "transitional inefficiencies" that make some traders nervous. Plus, the refinery utilization is expected to dip slightly to the 91–93% range in 2026 due to big maintenance projects at Strathcona and Sarnia.
Is the "Old Oil" Label Fair?
Most people think of Imperial as a dinosaur. They see the smoke stacks and the bitumen mines and think it’s a dying business. Honestly, that’s a bit naive.
The world still runs on diesel and jet fuel. Imperial’s downstream segment—the refineries and the Esso-branded stations—is a cash-generating monster. Even if electric vehicles take over the passenger car market, we still need the chemicals and the heavy fuels that Imperial produces.
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The real risk isn't "the end of oil." It’s the "differential." Because most of Imperial’s oil is produced in Alberta, they have to deal with the price gap between Canadian oil and the global benchmark (WTI). If pipelines get clogged or refineries in the US go offline, that gap widens, and Imperial’s profits can shrink even if global oil prices are high.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're looking at Imperial Oil Ltd stock right now, you have to decide if you're a "yield pig" or a "growth hunter."
- Watch the Buybacks: If the company continues to aggressively buy back 5% of its shares every year, the floor for the stock price remains quite high.
- The $15 Goal: Keep an eye on Kearl’s unit costs. If they can stay near or below $15 per barrel, they are essentially "recession-proof" in almost any realistic oil price scenario.
- The Renewable Pivot: Watch the Strathcona renewable diesel ramp-up. If it hits full capacity of 20,000 barrels a day by mid-2026, it proves the company can evolve without blowing their budget.
Don't expect the stock to double overnight. It’s not a tech start-up. It’s a massive, slow-moving, cash-spewing utility disguised as an oil company. You’re buying it for the stability, the Exxon backing, and the fact that they seem committed to returning every spare cent to the people who own the shares.
Before you jump in, check the current "crack spreads"—the difference between the price of crude oil and the petroleum products produced from it. That's usually the secret signal that tells you whether the next earnings report will be a blowout or a bust. If the spreads are tightening in early 2026, the stock might trade sideways for a while, giving you a better entry point.