It’s January 2026, and if you live in Illinois, you’ve probably already seen the ads. The 2026 Illinois race for governor is officially in high gear, and honestly, it’s shaping up to be one of the weirdest political cycles we've seen in years. We aren't just talking about the same old "Chicago vs. Downstate" drama. There’s a lot more moving parts this time around.
People keep asking: is JB Pritzker actually going to finish a third term if he wins? It’s a fair question. He’s already the longest-serving Democratic governor in state history. If he pulls off a win on November 3, 2026, he’ll be the first person since Jim Thompson in 1982 to get elected to a third term. That’s a massive "if," but honestly, the early numbers look pretty good for him.
But there’s a massive shakeup on his ticket. Juliana Stratton, the current Lieutenant Governor, isn't running with him. She’s gunning for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Dick Durbin. That left Pritzker needing a new partner. He’s tapped Christian Mitchell, a former state representative and deputy governor. It’s a safe, "insider" pick, but it definitely changes the vibe of the campaign.
The Republican Primary: A Four-Way Cage Match
On the other side of the aisle, things are getting crowded. And a bit tense.
✨ Don't miss: The CIA Stars on the Wall: What the Memorial Really Represents
The Republican primary is set for March 17, 2026. Right now, Darren Bailey—the guy who lost to Pritzker by about 12.5% in 2022—is back for a second helping. He’s still the frontrunner in the GOP camp, but he’s not exactly coasting. An Emerson College/WGN-TV poll from earlier this month (January 3–5, 2026) shows Bailey with 34% of the likely primary vote.
That sounds okay until you see that 46% of voters are still undecided. Basically, nearly half of the Republican base is still window shopping.
Here is who is currently on the stage:
🔗 Read more: Passive Resistance Explained: Why It Is Way More Than Just Standing Still
- Darren Bailey: He’s leaning hard into the "Illinois DOGE" idea—basically a state-level version of the Department of Government Efficiency. He wants to slash spending and is currently promising to withhold funds from sanctuary cities.
- Ted Dabrowski: The former Wirepoints president. He’s the "numbers guy" in the race. He’s polling around 8% right now and is making the case that Bailey can’t win the Chicago suburbs. He’s probably right about the math, but whether he can get the MAGA base to care is a different story.
- James Mendrick: The DuPage County Sheriff. He’s running primarily on the SAFE-T Act and crime. He’s got the "law and order" lane mostly to himself, but he’s stuck at 5% in the polls.
- Rick Heidner: A real estate developer and video gambling mogul. He’s the wild card. He says he wants to run the state like a business, but Dabrowski has already started attacking him for donating to Democrats in the past.
Why This Race is Different This Time
The "Sanctuary State" status is the elephant in the room. During the Tazewell County GOP forum on January 15, 2026, every single Republican candidate hammered Pritzker on immigration. It’s the issue that’s actually uniting the different factions of the GOP right now. They’re claiming the state has brought in 700,000 people without a plan to pay for them.
Pritzker, meanwhile, is leaning into his record. He’s touting balanced budgets and credit rating upgrades. But the GOP is calling those "bloated" and "fake" fixes fueled by high taxes.
The Money Problem
You can't talk about the Illinois race for governor without talking about the cash. Pritzker is a billionaire. He can outspend almost anyone. But Rick Heidner has his own deep pockets, and Bailey has shown he can tap into small-donor networks across rural Illinois.
💡 You might also like: What Really Happened With the Women's Orchestra of Auschwitz
The Victory Research poll from late November 2025 showed Pritzker leading Bailey 54% to 34% in a hypothetical head-to-head. That’s a 20-point gap. For a Republican to win, they have to figure out how to peel off at least 10% of those "undecided" suburbanites who hate their property taxes but might be scared off by Bailey’s hardline social stances.
Actionable Insights for Illinois Voters
If you’re trying to make sense of the noise before the March primary, here’s how to actually track what’s happening:
- Watch the "Illinois DOGE" website: Bailey is using this to name-and-shame state spending. It’s a clever digital strategy that’s gaining more traction than traditional TV ads.
- Follow the suburban polling: Don't just look at the statewide number. If the GOP nominee isn't polling at least 40% in the "collar counties" (DuPage, Lake, Will, Kane, McHenry) by summer, the race is effectively over.
- Check the Senate ripple effect: Because Juliana Stratton is running for Senate, the resources of the Democratic party are split. This might be the first time in a decade the GOP actually has a "resource parity" window, even if it’s small.
The March 17 primary will tell us if the Republican party wants to double down on the 2022 strategy or try something new with a guy like Dabrowski or Mendrick. Either way, the road to the Governor's Mansion still runs directly through the I-55 corridor.
To stay ahead of the curve, you should verify your voter registration status by February 17, 2026, which is the deadline for mail-in registration. You can also monitor the official Illinois State Board of Elections website for the finalized list of candidates after any remaining petition challenges are cleared. If you're planning to vote in the Republican primary, pay close attention to the candidates' specific proposals for property tax reform, as this remains the top issue for 43% of GOP primary voters.