If you’re sitting there wondering exactly how many electoral votes does Illinois have right now, the number is 19.
But honestly, that number is a bit of a moving target. If you had asked me this back in 2020, I would’ve told you 20. If you’d asked in the nineties, the answer would have been 22. It feels like Illinois is on a slow, steady diet when it comes to political clout, and the reasons why are kinda fascinating—and a little frustrating depending on who you talk to.
Basically, every ten years, the federal government does a massive head count called the Census. They look at who’s living where, and then they play a high-stakes game of "Musical Chairs" with the 535 seats in Congress (plus DC’s three). Since your electoral count is just your two Senators plus your House members, Illinois losing a seat in the House meant losing a vote in the Electoral College.
Why the Number Changed and Why It Matters
Illinois has been losing people. Or, more accurately, other states like Texas and Florida are growing way faster. When the 2020 Census wrapped up, the data showed that Illinois’ population had dipped just enough to trigger a "reapportionment." That’s just a fancy word for saying the government took one of our microphones away and handed it to someone else.
For the 2024 and 2028 elections, Illinois is locked in at 19 electoral votes.
It’s easy to think, "So what? It’s just one vote." But in a close election, one vote is everything. Look at the history. Back in the 1940s, Illinois had 29 electoral votes. We were a massive, undeniable powerhouse. Now? We’re still a heavy hitter, but we’ve dropped below states like Pennsylvania (also 19) and we're miles behind Florida’s 30.
The Math Behind the 19 Votes
It isn't some secret formula. It’s actually pretty simple addition:
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- 2 Senators: Every state gets two. No matter what.
- 17 Representatives: This is where the population decline hit us. We used to have 18.
- Total: 19
How Illinois Actually Casts Those Votes
Illinois is a "winner-take-all" state. Kinda harsh, right? If a candidate wins the popular vote by just one single person, they get all 19 votes. There’s no splitting them up like they do in Maine or Nebraska.
This is why you don't see presidential candidates spending a ton of time in Peoria or Rockford during the general election. They basically assume the Chicago metro area will carry the state for the Democrats—which it has done consistently since 1992—and they move their campaign buses to places like Wisconsin or Michigan instead.
Honestly, it makes Illinois feel like a "safe" state, which can be a bit boring for political junkies. But don't let that fool you. The sheer volume of 19 votes still makes Illinois one of the top 6 most influential states in the entire country.
A Quick Look at the Downward Trend
To give you some perspective on how much things have shifted, check out how the count has dwindled over the decades:
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- 1940s: 29 votes (The peak)
- 1970s: 26 votes (Starting to slide)
- 1990s: 22 votes (The big drop)
- 2010s: 20 votes (Holding steady-ish)
- 2020s: 19 votes (Where we are now)
It’s a bit of a bummer to see the influence slide, but it’s the reality of how the U.S. population is shifting toward the Sun Belt. People are moving for jobs, better weather, or lower taxes, and the political power follows them.
Does 19 Votes Make Illinois a "Blue State" Forever?
Most experts, including folks over at Cook Political Report or Sabato’s Crystal Ball, consider Illinois "Solid Democratic." In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by about 17 points. In 2024, the margin was similar.
But here’s the nuance: if you look at a map of Illinois by county, it’s a sea of red. Most of the state’s geography votes Republican. However, the Electoral College doesn't care about acres; it cares about people. Because the Chicago area is so densely populated, its 19 electoral votes almost always end up in the Democratic column.
Some people argue this "winner-take-all" system silences the voices of millions of voters in rural downstate Illinois. Others argue that it’s the only way to ensure the majority of the state’s actual residents are represented. It’s a debate that’s been going on since the Constitutional Convention, and it’s not going away anytime soon.
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What Happens if the Population Keeps Dropping?
If the 2030 Census shows another decline, Illinois could easily drop to 18 or even 17 votes. That would be a huge blow. It would mean less federal funding for our roads, schools, and hospitals, because those things are also tied to the Census.
Basically, the electoral vote count is like a thermometer for the state's health. When the number goes down, it’s usually a sign that people are leaving.
Actionable Insights: What You Can Do
If you’re a voter in Illinois, your 19 electoral votes are powerful, but they only work if you use them. Here’s what you should keep in mind for the next cycle:
- Register Early: Don't wait until November. Make sure your registration is current, especially if you've moved between Chicago and the suburbs or downstate.
- Understand the "Winner-Take-All" Rule: Realize that your vote for President in Illinois is essentially a vote for a "slate" of electors who have promised to vote for a specific candidate.
- Watch the 2030 Census: It sounds boring, but participating in the Census is the only way to stop the "vote drain." If people aren't counted, Illinois loses more seats and more influence.
- Local Matters: Since the presidential race in Illinois is often a foregone conclusion, your real power often lies in local and state-wide races where one vote can actually flip a seat.
Illinois might have fewer votes than it used to, but 19 is still a massive number that can swing an entire national election. Whether you’re in the heart of the Loop or out in a cornfield in Galena, those votes represent you.
To stay ahead of how these numbers might shift again, you should keep an eye on the mid-decade population estimates released by the Census Bureau. They give us a "preview" of whether we're going to lose another seat in 2030. You can check these updates on the official Census website or through local news outlets like the Chicago Tribune or Illinois Policy Institute, which track these trends closely.