You hear it all the time on the news or scrolling through social media. People get really fired up about the idea of a "migrant crime wave." It's one of those topics where the loudest voices usually drown out the actual data, making it super hard to tell what’s actually happening on the ground. Honestly, if you just looked at the headlines, you’d think the country was descending into chaos specifically because of border crossings.
But when you actually sit down and look at the hard numbers—the stuff researchers at places like the Cato Institute or Stanford have been digging into for years—the picture is kinda different. It's way more nuanced than a thirty-second soundbite.
Basically, the data shows that illegal immigrant crime rates are actually lower than those of native-born Americans. I know that sounds counterintuitive to some, but it's been a consistent finding for decades.
The Reality of Incarceration Numbers
If we want to get real about this, we have to look at who is actually behind bars. In April 2025, the Cato Institute released a pretty massive policy analysis looking at incarceration rates from 2010 through 2023. They found that for every 100,000 native-born Americans, about 1,221 were incarcerated. For illegal immigrants? That number was 613.
That is a huge gap. We are talking about half the rate.
It's not just a one-year fluke, either. Researchers like Elisa Jácome from Northwestern and Ran Abramitzky from Stanford have tracked this stuff all the way back to 1870. Think about that. For over 150 years, through world wars and depressions, immigrants—including those here without papers—have consistently been incarcerated at lower rates than people born here.
Why is this happening?
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Well, think about the stakes. If you’re here illegally, a run-in with the police isn't just a fine or a night in jail. It’s a one-way ticket out of the country. That "constant threat of deportation" acts as a massive deterrent. Most people coming here are looking for work and a better life; they aren't looking to throw it all away for a petty theft or a street fight.
What Texas Tells Us
Now, a common pushback is that national data is "fuzzy" because many states don't track immigration status in their criminal records. That's a fair point. But Texas is the exception. The Texas Department of Public Safety actually does track this, which makes their data the gold standard for anyone trying to debunk or prove the "migrant crime" narrative.
Recent studies of Texas arrest records found that undocumented immigrants were arrested at less than half the rate of native-born citizens for violent and drug crimes. When it comes to property crimes, they were arrested at about one-quarter of the rate.
- Native-born citizens: 213 arrests per 100,000 for violent crimes.
- Undocumented immigrants: 96.2 arrests per 100,000 for violent crimes.
These aren't guesses. These are actual fingerprints tied to DHS records.
Even with homicide—the most serious of all—the rate for undocumented individuals in Texas averaged less than half the rate of native-born Americans. It's just not the "wave" that’s often described on late-night TV.
Why the Perception is So Different
So, if the numbers are so low, why does it feel like there's a crisis?
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Part of it is just how news works. When an illegal immigrant commits a high-profile, tragic crime, it becomes a national story. It’s shocking. It feels like a preventable tragedy. Because that person "shouldn't have been here," the crime takes on a weight that a "standard" crime committed by a citizen doesn't.
But statistically, you have to look at the denominator. If you have millions of people in a group, some of them will commit crimes. That's just human nature. The question for public policy isn't "does any crime happen?" but "does this group make the community more or less safe than the existing population?"
The American Immigration Council pointed out in a 2024 report that as the immigrant share of the U.S. population doubled between 1980 and 2022, the total crime rate in the U.S. actually dropped by 60%.
Correlation isn't always causation, sure. But it definitely puts a dent in the idea that more immigrants equals more danger.
The "New Destination" Effect
Lately, we’ve seen a lot of news about migrants being bussed to cities like New York or Chicago. People are worried this will lead to a spike in local violence.
Actually, researchers from the University of Arkansas looked at over 1,000 places across the U.S. and found that each percentage point increase in the foreign-born population was associated with a 2.5% reduction in homicides and a 2% reduction in assaults.
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It turns out that when immigrants move into a neighborhood, they often revitalize local economies and strengthen social ties. They open shops, they walk the streets, they look out for each other. This "social integration" can actually make a neighborhood safer than it was before they arrived.
Practical Insights and Next Steps
If you're trying to make sense of the noise, here's how to look at illegal immigrant crime rates with a more critical eye:
Check the source of the "Crime Wave" claim. Is the person citing a specific study, or are they just pointing to one or two high-profile tragedies? Anecdotes are powerful, but they aren't data.
Distinguish between "Immigration Crimes" and "Common-Law Crimes." When you see reports of high "non-citizen" arrest numbers in federal court, keep in mind that nearly 90% of those are for the act of illegal entry or re-entry itself. That’s a federal misdemeanor or felony, but it’s not a violent crime against a person or property.
Look at the long-term trends. Crime is complicated. It's influenced by the economy, policing levels, and even the age of the population. Most immigrants are in their prime working years, a demographic that—across all groups—actually tends to be more law-abiding when they have stable employment.
Acknowledge the victims. One thing often missed is that immigrants themselves are frequently victims of crime but are terrified to report it. A 2025 Cato report found that when immigrants do feel safe reporting, they actually cooperate with police at higher rates than native-born citizens. Supporting witness protection for all residents, regardless of status, is a proven way to get more criminals off the street.
If you really want to dive deeper, I'd suggest looking at the Cato Institute’s 2025 Policy Analysis No. 994 or the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) papers. They lay out the 150-year history of this stuff in a way that’s hard to argue with, no matter what side of the political aisle you’re on.
Essentially, if we want to solve crime, we have to look at where it’s actually coming from—and the data says it’s rarely coming from the people crossing the border to find work.