IHSA Girls Basketball Rankings: Why the AP Poll Often Gets It Wrong

IHSA Girls Basketball Rankings: Why the AP Poll Often Gets It Wrong

So, you’re looking at the latest IHSA girls basketball rankings and wondering why your local powerhouse is sitting at number seven while a team they beat by twelve points is somehow top three. Welcome to the club. Rankings in high school sports are a beautiful, messy, and often infuriating science that keeps Illinois gyms packed and Twitter—or X, or whatever we call it today—absolutely buzzing every Wednesday afternoon.

Whether you're following the Associated Press (AP) writers' poll or the cold, hard math of MaxPreps computer rankings, the middle of January is when things get weird. The holiday tournaments are over. Teams are deep into conference play. Injuries are starting to take a toll. Basically, the pretenders are being separated from the contenders as we hurtle toward the state finals at CEFCU Arena in early March.

The 4A Power Vacuum: Why Benet Academy is Still the Standard

In the big school division, it’s Benet Academy’s world and everyone else is just trying to find a seat in it. As of the January 14, 2026 update, Benet holds the top spot in the AP poll with 59 points. They’ve got the record (16-1) and they’ve got the pedigree. But look closely at Waubonsie Valley. They’re sitting at 18-0. Undefeated. Yet, they’re still trailing Benet in the voting.

Why? It’s the "strength of schedule" argument. Voters love a team that travels to find trouble, and Benet has played a gauntlet. However, the computer rankings often favor the zeros in the loss column.

Class 4A Top Dogs (Current AP Standings)

  • Benet Academy (16-1): The consensus #1 with 5 first-place votes.
  • Waubonsie Valley (18-0): The undefeated threat breathing down their necks.
  • Loyola Academy (18-2): Always a bridesmaid in the rankings but a nightmare in the playoffs.
  • DePaul Prep (16-2): Surging into the top five after a dominant early January.
  • Nazareth Academy (15-3): Don’t let the three losses fool you; they play everyone.

Naperville Central, led by the phenomenal Trinity Jones, is another team hovering in that 6-9 range. Honestly, 4A is so top-heavy this year that any of these top six could win a state title on a lucky Saturday. Maine South and Alton are also lurking at the bottom of the top ten, just waiting for someone above them to slip up.

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The 3A Shocker: Morton Reclaims the Throne

If you want to talk about drama, look at Class 3A. For weeks, Washington was the undisputed queen of the hill. They were 17-1 and looked untouchable. Then, the January 14 poll dropped, and Morton (15-3) jumped from #3 to #1.

How does a three-loss team jump a one-loss team? It’s nuance. Morton has been playing out-of-state giants and picking up massive "quality wins." The voters rewarded the difficulty of their journey. Galesburg (18-1) is right there too, sitting at #3. It feels like the Mid-Illini conference is basically a mini-state tournament every Tuesday night.

Glenwood and Providence Catholic are rounding out the top five, but keep an eye on Peoria Notre Dame. They weren't even ranked a week ago. Now they’re at #8. That’s the kind of volatility you see when teams start clicking right before the February 5 seeding deadline.

Small Town, Big Stakes: 1A and 2A Battles

Down in Class 2A, Breese Central and Nashville are locked in a Southern Illinois slugfest for the #1 spot. Breese Central currently holds a slim lead (72 points to Nashville’s 71). We are talking about a single point difference in the eyes of the media. That is wild.

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Meanwhile, Teutopolis—a program with more history than most history books—fell from the top spot to #3 after a couple of tough games. They’re 17-2. In most states, that's a lock for #1. In Illinois 2A? It’s barely enough for the podium.

Over in 1A, Brownstown-St. Elmo (18-1) is the team to beat. They’ve been rock solid, but Brown County and Deer Creek-Mackinaw are making massive jumps. "Dee-Mack" actually climbed from #8 all the way to #3 in a single week. If you aren't paying attention to the small schools, you're missing the best pure basketball in the state.

Computer vs. Human: The Great Ranking Debate

Here’s where it gets kinda complicated. The IHSA girls basketball rankings you see in the newspaper (the AP poll) are subjective. It’s a group of sports editors and broadcasters across the state voting on who they think is best.

MaxPreps, on the other hand, uses a proprietary algorithm. It doesn't care about "tradition" or "gut feelings." It looks at:

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  1. Winning Percentage: Obviously.
  2. Opponent Strength: Who did you play?
  3. Opponent's Opponent Strength: Who did the people you played play?

Sometimes these two lists match up perfectly. Often, they don't. A team like Fremd might be ranked #7 in the AP poll but #3 in the computer rankings because the math sees their schedule as a literal minefield.

What the Rankings Actually Mean for February

At the end of the day, a #1 ranking in January is a nice trophy for the school's social media page, but it doesn't guarantee a trophy in March. The IHSA uses an online team seeding process. On February 5, coaches will log in and seed the teams in their own sectional.

The rankings definitely influence the coaches' minds, but it's the head-to-head matchups that carry the most weight. If you're ranked #2 but lost to the #10 team last week, expect that #10 team to be seeded higher than you when the brackets come out.

The regional quarterfinals start on February 14. That’s less than a month away. The rankings will likely shift two or three more times before then.

Actionable Next Steps for Fans and Coaches:

  • Track the "Others Receiving Votes": Teams like Hope Academy (1A) or Johnsburg (2A) are right on the edge. They are usually the "bracket busters" that ruin a top seed's season in the regional final.
  • Watch the Scoreboard: If you’re a coach, the January 21 entry list deadline is huge. Make sure your MaxPreps scores are 100% accurate before the seeding window opens.
  • Attend a Sectional Preview: Look for matchups between ranked teams in the final two weeks of January. These are essentially "unofficial" playoff games that determine who gets the home-court advantage in the regionals.

The road to Normal is officially open. Whether the rankings say you're the best or you're the underdog, the only thing that matters is who's leading when the clock hits zero in the fourth quarter.