January hits different in the NHL. The holiday buzz has faded, the Winter Classic is in the rearview mirror, and suddenly, general managers are staring at the standings with a mix of genuine hope and absolute dread. We’re deep enough into the 2025-26 season that the "it’s still early" excuse has officially expired.
Honestly, the league looks nothing like what the experts predicted back in October. If the NHL playoffs were today, we’d be looking at some absolute chaos. Imagine a world where the Detroit Red Wings are leading the Atlantic and the Colorado Avalanche are playing at a level that feels almost illegal. It's wild.
The current landscape is a mess of tiebreakers and surging wildcards. Here is exactly how the bracket would shake out if the season ended this afternoon.
The Eastern Conference: Chaos in the Atlantic
Forget what you thought about the "Big Three" in the Atlantic. The standings have been a blender for the last three weeks.
The Top Seeds and Brutal Matchups
As of January 15, 2026, the Detroit Red Wings (60 points) hold the top spot in the Atlantic by a hair. They’ve been remarkably consistent, finding ways to win games that they probably should have lost. If the puck dropped for the postseason right now, they’d be facing the Toronto Maple Leafs, who currently occupy the first Wild Card spot with 53 points.
Think about that rivalry for a second. Original Six. High stakes. The city of Detroit might actually vibrate off the map.
Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Lightning (59 points) have been on an absolute tear, recently riding an 11-game winning streak. They are sitting in the second Atlantic spot and would be locked into a divisional battle against the Montreal Canadiens (58 points). The Habs have been the biggest surprise of the year. Most people expected them to be lottery-bound, but they’ve transformed into a defensively stout, annoying-to-play-against group that refuses to go away.
The Metropolitan Side of the Bracket
The Metro is a bit more top-heavy, but the race for the third spot is a total bloodbath.
- Carolina Hurricanes (1st Metro): They lead the division with 60 points. They are the model of "boring but effective" hockey. Their reward? A matchup with the Buffalo Sabres (52 points), who are currently holding onto the second Wild Card.
- New York Islanders (2nd Metro): With 55 points, they’ve carved out a solid identity. They’d be facing the Philadelphia Flyers (52 points), who have managed to stay in the third Metro spot despite a recent slide.
The most heartbreaking part? The Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins are sitting right outside looking in. Alex Ovechkin is chasing 900 goals, but he might be doing it while watching the playoffs from his couch if the Caps don't fix their power play.
The Western Conference: Colorado vs. The World
If you haven't been watching the Colorado Avalanche, you’re missing something historic. They have 74 points. Read that again. They’ve only lost four games in regulation all season. If the NHL playoffs were today, the West would essentially be a tournament to see who gets the privilege of being dismantled by Nathan MacKinnon in May.
Central Division Dominance
The Central is currently the strongest division in hockey, hands down.
The Avalanche would face the Los Angeles Kings, who are clinging to the second Wild Card spot with 49 points. It’s a mismatch on paper, but the Kings have that veteran "one last run" energy with Anze Kopitar in what many believe is his final season.
In the 2 vs. 3 matchup, we’d get the Dallas Stars (63 points) against the Minnesota Wild (61 points). This is arguably the best first-round matchup in this hypothetical scenario. These two teams genuinely dislike each other, and with Quinn Hughes anchoring the Wild's blue line, the skill level would be off the charts.
Pacific Division: The Desert Heat
Over in the Pacific, it’s a two-horse race that has basically become a game of chicken.
- Vegas Golden Knights (1st Pacific): They have 56 points and have regained their "Golden Misfits" swagger after Mitch Marner’s arrival. They’d be slated to play the San Jose Sharks (49 points). Yes, the Sharks. Macklin Celebrini has single-handedly dragged this franchise back to relevance faster than anyone thought possible.
- Edmonton Oilers (2nd Pacific): Connor McDavid is doing McDavid things. They have 54 points and would face the Seattle Kraken (51 points), who have settled into a very comfortable third-place spot in the division.
Why These Matchups Matter Right Now
The phrase "if the NHL playoffs were today" isn't just a fun exercise for fans; it dictates how GMs approach the trade deadline.
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Take the Boston Bruins. They are currently tied with the Sabres at 52 points but lose the tiebreaker. Do they sell? Do they go all-in? They’re getting 50-goal-pace production from Morgan Geekie, which is something nobody had on their bingo card. If they were in a playoff spot, they’d be buyers. Since they aren't, the vibes in the locker room are... tense.
Then you have the Utah Mammoth. They’re only one point out of a playoff spot in the West. For an expansion-adjacent franchise, making the dance in year two would be massive for the market. You can bet they’re looking at the trade market for a veteran defenseman to leapfrog the Kings or Sharks.
What to Watch Before the Real Postseason
We still have the Olympic break coming up in February, which is going to throw a massive wrench into everything.
Players are going to Italy, playing high-intensity hockey, and then coming back to finish the NHL season. Injuries are almost a guarantee. The teams that look like locks today—like the Lightning or the Golden Knights—could look very different in April if their stars come back from Milano with "lower-body injuries."
Actionable Insights for the Second Half:
- Watch the Schedule: Teams like the Sabres and Islanders have a lot of games in hand. Points percentage is a better metric than raw points right now.
- The "Habs" Regression: Keep an eye on Montreal. Their advanced stats suggest they are overachieving. If their goaltending cools off, the Capitals or Penguins will jump them in a heartbeat.
- The Colorado Factor: If you’re a betting person, the Avalanche are the only safe bet in the league. Everyone else is fighting for scraps.
The road to the Stanley Cup is never a straight line. If the NHL playoffs were today, we’d have a bracket full of surprises, but there are still 30-plus games for everything to go sideways. Check the standings every morning; at this rate, the matchups will probably change by Tuesday.
Invest in a good pair of skates or a comfortable couch. It's going to be a long winter.
Next Steps for Hockey Fans:
Check the official NHL standings tonight after the West Coast games wrap up. Pay close attention to the "Games Played" column—the disparity between teams like Detroit and Buffalo is where the real playoff race is hidden.