Virginia is a tough nut for Republicans to crack lately. If you’ve been following the political trajectory of the Old Dominion, you know the vibe. It's shifted from a reliable red stronghold to a deep shade of blue over the last two decades. So, when the Hung Cao election results started rolling in on November 5, 2024, everyone was watching to see if the retired Navy captain could actually pull off an upset against a titan like Tim Kaine.
Spoiler: He didn't win. But the raw numbers tell a story that's a lot more nuanced than just "the Republican lost."
The Final Tallies and the 9-Point Gap
Honestly, the margin was closer than a lot of the late-summer polls predicted. When the dust settled, Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine walked away with 2,417,115 votes, which gave him about 54.37% of the total. Hung Cao pulled in 2,019,911 votes, sitting at 45.44%.
That’s roughly a 9-point difference. For context, some folks in the GOP were hoping for a "Youngkin effect"—referencing Governor Glenn Youngkin's 2021 win—where a Republican could squeeze out a victory by over-performing in the suburbs. Cao didn't quite get there. He did, however, manage to move the needle in places where Republicans have been struggling.
The money gap was also massive. Kaine’s campaign was a fundraising juggernaut, spending over $21 million. Cao, by comparison, spent about $9.5 million. Basically, Kaine was outspending him two-to-one, and in the world of modern politics, that’s a mountain that is incredibly hard to climb.
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Why the GOP Base Loved Him (and the Suburbs Didn't)
Cao’s path to the general election was a breeze. He absolutely crushed the Republican primary back in June, snagging nearly 62% of the vote in a five-way race. He had the "Trump energy" that the base craves. With an endorsement from Donald Trump and a background as a Navy Special Operations officer who fled Vietnam as a refugee, his "only in America" story resonated deeply with rural voters and the MAGA faithful.
But then came the general election.
The Geography of the Loss
If you look at the map, Cao dominated the "red sea" of Virginia. He swept the southwest, the Shenandoah Valley, and much of the Southside. In places like Augusta County, he was pulling over 70% of the vote. But Virginia isn't won in the mountains; it’s won in the "Golden Crescent"—the corridor stretching from Northern Virginia (NOVA) down through Richmond and over to Virginia Beach.
- Fairfax County: Kaine got 393,906 votes; Cao got 186,266.
- Arlington: It wasn't even a contest. Kaine took over 100,000 votes while Cao stayed under 28,000.
- Loudoun County: This was supposed to be Cao's home turf (he lives in Purcellville), but Kaine still won it by 40,000 votes.
You just can't lose NOVA by that much and expect to wake up a Senator.
The "Podunk" Controversy and Other Stumbles
Political junkies will tell you that Cao’s campaign had some... let’s call them "colorful" moments. He didn't exactly play the traditional "moderate for the suburbs" game. At one point, he called a local newspaper in Staunton "podunk." He also took heat for suggesting that Abingdon was basically too far of a drive for a debate.
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You’ve gotta realize that in Virginia, regional pride is huge. Rural voters want to feel respected, and suburban voters want to feel like you’re one of them. By leaning so hard into the national culture war—sparring over DEI in the military and COVID mandates—he solidified his base but likely alienated the "wine track" Republicans in Henrico or Chesterfield who might have been looking for an excuse to jump ship from Kaine.
Hung Cao's Surprising Next Chapter
Most candidates who lose a Senate race by 9 points fade into a "where are they now?" list or go back to their day jobs. Cao didn't.
Because of his loyalty to the Trump brand and his undeniable military credentials, the loss in November was just a pivot. In early 2025, Donald Trump nominated Cao to be the Under Secretary of the Navy.
It was a bruising confirmation process. In October 2025, the Senate confirmed him in a 52–45 vote. Interestingly, it was almost a straight party-line vote, which is pretty rare for Navy leadership roles. Every Republican voted "yes" (except Lisa Murkowski), and nearly every Democrat voted "no." It goes to show that even after the Hung Cao election results were finalized, he remained one of the most polarizing figures in Virginia politics.
Actionable Insights: What This Means for Virginia's Future
If you're looking at these results to figure out where Virginia is headed, here are the real takeaways:
- The Trump Endorsement is a Double-Edged Sword: It guarantees a primary win in Virginia, but it currently creates a ceiling in the general election that sits right around 45-46%.
- The "Golden Crescent" Rules All: To win statewide, a Republican has to find a way to lose Fairfax by "only" 20 points instead of 30+. Cao couldn't find that gear.
- Candidate Quality Matters: Cao was a great "on-paper" candidate with a hero's backstory, but his rhetorical style was tailored for a national audience, not necessarily a Virginia one.
If you want to keep an eye on how these trends affect the next cycle, start by looking at the 2025 gubernatorial race. Whoever the GOP nominates will have to decide if they want to follow the Cao "base-first" model or the Youngkin "suburban-squeeze" model.
Keep an eye on the official Virginia Department of Elections website for the final certified precinct-level data if you really want to nerd out on the micro-trends of this race.
Next Steps for You: You can track Hung Cao’s current performance in his role as Under Secretary of the Navy by following the Department of Defense’s official press releases. If you’re interested in the next big shift, start looking into the early polling for the 2026 midterms, as the "Cao effect" is likely to influence how Virginia Republicans vet their next batch of statewide candidates.