Ranking high school runners isn't just about who crossed the finish line first on a random Tuesday in October. If it were that simple, we wouldn't need speed ratings, complex databases, or the endless debates that keep parents awake at night.
Honestly, the "time" on the scoreboard is often the biggest lie in the sport. A 15:10 on a flat, paved course in California is basically incomparable to a 15:50 at Holmdel Park in New Jersey where the "Bowl" eats PRs for breakfast. That’s why hs cross country rankings are such a fascinating, messy puzzle.
The National Heavyweights: Who's Actually Winning?
As we look at the wrap-up of the 2025 season and the transition into 2026, the names at the top of the list aren't there by accident. Jackson Spencer from Herriman (UT) pretty much cemented his legacy this past December. Winning a historic double—both Nike Cross Nationals (NXN) and the Brooks XC Championship—isn't just "good." It's legendary.
He didn't do it alone, though. The battle for that No. 1 spot was a dogfight. Marcelo Mantecon, a junior out of Belen Jesuit in Florida, pushed Spencer to the absolute brink at Brooks. Mantecon took second there after a fourth-place finish at NXN. If you're looking for a preseason favorite for 2026, he’s basically the guy with the target on his back.
Then you have the teams. Niwot (CO) has turned into a factory. Led by Quinn Sullivan and Hunter Robbie, the Niwot boys secured back-to-back NXN team titles. Think about that. In a sport where a single twisted ankle or a head cold can ruin a season, they stayed perfect on the biggest stage.
On the girls' side, the narrative has been dominated by Addison Ritzenhein of Niwot. When your last name is Ritzenhein, people expect big things, and she has delivered. But the depth in the 2025-2026 cycle is wild. Marissa Ferebee from Pella (IA) and Lily Alder from Timpview (UT) have been trading blows in the rankings all year.
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Why Your PR Doesn't Matter (As Much as You Think)
Let’s talk about the thing that drives everyone crazy: Speed Ratings.
If you look at MileSplit or DyeStat, you’ll see these numbers that aren't times. Most of the elite world relies on the methodology pioneered by people like Bill Meylan of TullyRunners. Basically, they take the results of a race and compare them to a "standard" race.
Why? Because a "5K" course is rarely exactly 5,000 meters. One might have wheel slippage during measurement. Another might have a hill that adds 20 seconds to everyone's time.
"A speed rating is just a corrected race time. It allows speed comparison of any race to another race... it's nothing more than that!" — Bill Meylan.
One point in a speed rating is generally equal to three seconds. So, if Runner A has a 190 rating and Runner B has a 187, Runner A is theoretically 9 seconds faster, regardless of what the clock said at their respective meets. This is how recruiters and rankers compare a kid in rural Oregon to a kid in suburban Florida.
The Regional Grinds
The national rankings are flashy, but the real heart of hs cross country rankings is in the regional dogfights.
- Southwest: Utah and Colorado are currently the center of the XC universe. Between Niwot, Herriman, and American Fork, the talent density is just unfair.
- California: It's a different world. You have the Woodbridge Classic, where times are lightning fast, followed by the brutal hills of Mt. SAC. Jesuit (CA) has been the team to beat here, moving back to No. 1 in the state after a massive showing at Clovis.
- Northeast: This is where the "strength" runners live. Christian Brothers Academy (NJ) is a perennial powerhouse. They don't always post the fastest 5K times in September because they’re busy grinding out wins on the "toughest course in the country" at Holmdel.
The Freshman Phenom Factor
Every year, some eighth-grader shows up at a varsity meet and destroys a field of seniors. We saw it with Isabella Vasquez (El Diamante, CA) this past fall, who started clocking sub-18:10 times as a freshman.
Rankers hate and love this. It's hard to rank a 14-year-old because they haven't faced the "November slump" yet. High school cross country is a long season. Many kids who look like world-beaters in September are burnt out by the time State or Regionals roll around.
What Most People Get Wrong About Rankings
The biggest mistake? Treating rankings as a prediction of the future.
Rankings are a snapshot of past performance. They don't account for the "taper." A coach like Niwot’s or Southlake Carroll’s (shoutout to Caden Leonard for a monster comeback season) knows how to peak their athletes for exactly one day in December.
A kid ranked 50th in October could easily be Top 10 by the time the national championships hit because their training was designed to "arrive" late.
Actionable Steps for Navigating the Rankings
If you're a runner, parent, or coach trying to make sense of the noise, here is how you should actually use this data:
- Stop chasing PRs on flat courses. College coaches look at speed ratings and performance in high-pressure meets (like the Manhattan Invitational or Desert Twilight). A win in a muddy, slow tactical race is worth more than a fast time in a solo time trial.
- Watch the "Three-Mile" vs "5K" split. Some states (like Illinois and California) still love the 3-mile distance. Don't compare a 3-mile time directly to a 5K. Use a conversion tool or look for the speed rating to see how that performance actually stacks up.
- Monitor the "referral runners." If you want to know how good a new runner is, look at who they beat. If they finish within 5 seconds of a known "Top 100" athlete, they are effectively in that same tier, regardless of their official rank.
- Check Athletic.net and MileSplit frequently, but with a grain of salt. These sites are great for raw data, but their "automated" rankings often miss context, like a runner who was pacing a teammate or returning from an injury.
The 2026 season is already shaping up to be a transition year. With seniors like Jackson Spencer and Caden Leonard moving on to the college ranks, the door is wide open for the next generation of underclassmen to rewrite the hs cross country rankings entirely.
Keep an eye on those regional meets in September—that's where the real story begins.
Next Steps for Tracking Performance
To get the most out of the upcoming season's data, you should create a "watch list" of 5-10 athletes in your specific region on Athletic.net. Focus on their Speed Rating trends rather than their raw times. If you see a runner's rating steadily climbing by 2-3 points per meet, they are on track to peak perfectly for the championship season. This is a much more reliable indicator of potential than a single fast "PR" on a short course.
Check the results of major early-season invitationals like the Woodbridge Classic or the Nightfall Classic to see which programs have the most depth in their 4th and 5th runners, as team rankings are almost always decided by the "gap" rather than the frontrunner.