If you’re checking your portfolio this Sunday morning, January 18, 2026, you’re probably seeing a whole lot of nothing. That's because the markets are closed for the weekend, but the silence is deceptive. Honestly, the "how’s the stock market today" question is less about a ticker moving and more about the massive, tectonic shifts happening under our feet before the opening bell rings on Tuesday. (Don’t forget, Monday is a holiday, so we’ve got a long weekend to overthink things.)
We are currently sitting in a weird pocket of the seventh bull market since 1990. The Nasdaq has been on an absolute tear—up roughly 54% since this run kicked off in April 2025. But if you talk to anyone on the floor or the "fin-fluencers" on your feed, the vibe isn’t exactly celebratory. It’s more of a "waiting for the other shoe to drop" kind of energy. Why? Because the market is grappling with a bizarre cocktail of AI-driven euphoria, a government that’s playing hardball with the Federal Reserve, and a retail sector that is somehow still spending money like it's going out of style.
The Reality of the "Flat" Finish
Friday didn't exactly set the world on fire. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped about 80 points—basically a rounding error these days—to close at 49,363. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were essentially flat. It’s like the whole market decided to take a collective nap while waiting for more clarity on who is going to be running the Fed.
One day, Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner for Fed Chair; the next, President Trump signals he might keep Hassett in an advisory role, and suddenly Kevin Warsh is back in the lead. This matters more than just "who gets the office." It’s about whether the Fed stays independent or starts taking direct orders from the White House to slash rates.
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The Big Gainers and Losers From Friday’s Session
Even in a flat market, there are always some outliers that make you look twice.
- ImmunityBio (IBRX): This thing went parabolic, up nearly 40% on Friday. It’s a biotech play, so it’s volatile by nature, but that kind of volume is a massive signal.
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): Up over 16%. The crypto-mining space is getting a second wind as Riot secured a major AMD data center lease.
- Salesforce (CRM): On the flip side, Salesforce dragged the Dow down, falling nearly 3%.
- UnitedHealth (UNH): Another laggard, dropping over 2%, which shows the ongoing sensitivity in the healthcare sector to policy shifts.
Why How’s the Stock Market Today Matters for Your 2026 Strategy
If you’re looking at the big picture, the S&P 500 is flirting with the 7,000 mark. That was a "maybe" a year ago; now it's the baseline. Experts like Lori Calvasina at RBC Capital Markets are even eyeing 7,750 within the next year.
But here’s the kicker: we aren't looking at "multiple expansion" anymore. In plain English, that means stocks aren't getting more expensive just because people are excited. They’re getting expensive because they are actually making more money. Earnings growth is projected at 13–15% for the next two years. That’s the engine. If that engine coughs, the whole car stops.
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The AI Supercycle: Bubble or Boom?
There’s a lot of talk about an "AI reckoning." We’ve seen this movie before—think 1999—but this time it feels... different? Nvidia is still the king of the mountain with a $4.5 trillion market cap. Every time someone says the bubble is about to burst, a company like TSMC comes out and reports record-breaking profits ($16 billion in a single quarter!) and the rally starts all over again.
However, there is a new wrinkle: power. The Trump administration is pushing to make tech giants pay for their own power plants. The idea is that these massive data centers are sucking the grid dry, and the government wants them to bid on 15-year electricity contracts. Surprisingly, Microsoft and Meta shares actually ticked up on the news. Investors seem to think that if these companies own their power source, they are even more "un-killable."
The Fed's "Will They, Won't They" Drama
Let’s talk about interest rates. Everyone wanted six cuts this year. Now? We might be lucky to get one. J.P. Morgan’s Michael Feroli basically said, "Don't hold your breath."
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The economy is too strong. Retail sales are climbing, and unemployment is hovering around 4.4%. If the Fed cuts rates now, they risk reigniting inflation that has finally started to behave.
| Index | Closing Price (Jan 16, 2026) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 49,363.00 | -0.16% |
| S&P 500 | 6,960.40 | +0.08% |
| Nasdaq | 23,515.39 | -0.06% |
Actionable Insights for the Week Ahead
So, what do you actually do with this information?
- Watch the Retail Reports: We’re waiting on delayed reports for housing starts and durable goods. If those come in hot, forget about a March rate cut.
- Tech Diversification: If you’re heavy on the "Magnificent Seven," it might be time to look at the "AI Power" plays—the utilities and infrastructure companies that are building the actual grid these data centers need.
- Biotech Volatility: Companies like ImmunityBio show that the "small-cap rotation" is real. Money is looking for places to go that aren't already trading at 40x earnings.
- Mind the Geopolitics: Tensions with Iran and the bizarre ongoing conversation about Greenland (yes, that’s still a thing) are creating "headline risk." Keep your stop-losses tight.
Basically, the stock market today is a coiled spring. We’re in a period of high concentration where a few names move the whole index. It’s been a winning strategy for three years, but history says a fourth year of 20%+ returns is a long shot. Stay nimble.
Next Step: You should review your portfolio's exposure to the "Mag 7" and check if you have any defensive positions in utilities or financials, as these sectors are showing improved "breadth" even when the big tech names stall.