If you’re looking at your calendar and wondering how’s the election going right now, you aren't alone. It’s early January 2026, and depending on where you live, the answer ranges from "we’re just getting started" to "it’s total chaos."
Honestly, the "quiet" start to the year is a bit of an illusion. While the big U.S. Midterms aren't until November 3, 2026, the gears are already grinding. We’ve got primary filing deadlines hitting in weeks, and globally, countries like Uganda and Portugal are literally heading to the polls as we speak.
The Global Scene: It’s Not Just About Washington
People tend to forget that 2026 is a massive year for democracy outside the States. For example, Uganda just held its general election on January 15. President Yoweri Museveni, who has been in power since 1986, faced a landscape where opposition groups reported significant harassment. It’s a tense situation.
Then you have Portugal. Their presidential election is set for January 18. It’s a big deal because it marks the end of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s term.
Why January feels different this year
The world feels a bit more fragmented. Lazard Geopolitical Advisory recently pointed out that 2026 is becoming the year of "Economic Nationalism." Basically, governments are acting less like referees and more like players. This shifts how elections are run because candidates aren't just talking about social issues; they’re promising to protect local supply chains from global shocks.
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The U.S. Midterms: The Shadow of the Second Term
In the U.S., the big question is how the 120th Congress will look. This is the first midterm since 1894 to take place during a non-consecutive second presidential term. That’s a weird historical quirk that political junkies are obsessing over.
Currently, Republicans hold a slim majority in both the House and Senate. But history is a fickle beast. The party out of power usually gains ground during midterms. Polling from groups like Decision Desk HQ and RealClearPolitics shows Democrats with a slight edge in the generic ballot—somewhere around +4% to +5%—but that doesn't account for the massive redistricting battles happening in Texas, North Carolina, and Ohio.
The "Retirement Wave"
We’re seeing historic retirements. Nancy Pelosi’s exit has left a massive vacuum in California, and it’s turned the June primaries there into a bit of a free-for-all.
- House of Representatives: All 435 seats are up.
- Senate: 35 seats are on the line, including special elections in Ohio (to fill J.D. Vance’s old seat) and Florida (for Marco Rubio’s seat).
- Gubernatorial Races: 36 states are electing governors. Watch Arizona closely; Katie Hobbs is in for a fight against Trump-endorsed Andy Biggs.
What’s Actually Happening Today?
Today, January 16, 2026, the "election" isn't just about ballots. It's about the climate of the country. A new survey from PRRI dropped today showing that 67% of Americans believe political leaders’ failure to condemn violent rhetoric is the top driver of political violence. That’s a heavy backdrop for any campaign.
There's also some weird drama with AI. About 64% of people are worried that AI-generated misinformation is going to wreck the 2026 cycle. We're already seeing "deepfake" ads in local races that are scarily convincing.
The redistricting factor
If you want to know how's the election going in terms of who will actually win, you have to look at the maps. Texas and North Carolina redrew their maps mid-cycle to favor Republicans. On the flip side, California passed Prop 50, which helped Democrats counter some of those gains. It’s basically a high-stakes game of Tetris with voter blocks.
Real Examples of the 2026 Heat
Take a look at Minnesota. Governor Tim Walz isn't running for a third term. Now, Senator Amy Klobuchar is reportedly eyeing the seat. That one move could trigger a special election for her Senate seat, potentially flipping the entire math for the Senate majority.
In New York, the political landscape shifted on January 1st when Zohran Mamdani was sworn in as the first Muslim and Asian American mayor. His win is being viewed as a template for how progressives might try to run in the 2026 midterms—focusing on local infrastructure and housing rather than just national culture wars.
How to Track the 2026 Election Without Losing Your Mind
It's easy to get overwhelmed by the "horse race" coverage. To actually stay informed, you need to look at specific milestones.
- Primary Filing Deadlines: These are happening now. If a strong challenger doesn't file by the end of February in states like Texas or Illinois, the incumbent is basically safe.
- Special Elections: Watch the ones in Georgia (District 14) and California (District 1). These are early "vibes" checks for the national mood.
- Local Issues: Don't just watch the Senate. The 26 Secretary of State races are where the rules for the next presidential election in 2028 will be written.
Surprising Details Most People Miss
One thing nobody is talking about? The impact of the "New START" treaty expiration. With global security feeling shaky, candidates in 2026 are being forced to have an actual foreign policy platform. It’s no longer enough to just talk about the border or inflation.
Also, the "Epstein Files" drama in the House, led by Rep. Thomas Massie, has created a weird rift in the Republican party. Trump is actively trying to oust Massie in the May 19 primary. It’s a test of whether a "Trump endorsement" still carries the same weight it did two years ago.
The Bottom Line on the 2026 Outlook
Right now, the 2026 election cycle is in its "infrastructure phase." Parties are raising money, maps are being finalized in court, and the first wave of international elections is setting the global tone. If you feel like nothing is happening, you're just looking at the surface. Underneath, the 2026 midterms are shaping up to be a total reset of the American political order.
Actionable Next Steps for Staying Informed
Instead of just refreshing news feeds, here is how you can actually engage with how the election is going:
- Check your voter registration now. Several states, including Minnesota and Ohio, have updated their registration rules for 2026. Don't wait until October to find out your status changed.
- Look up your new district. If you live in Utah, Ohio, Missouri, or North Carolina, your congressional district has likely changed since 2024. Use a tool like Ballotpedia to see who your actual representative is now.
- Follow local Secretary of State news. These offices handle the actual mechanics of the vote. Knowing their stance on mail-in ballots or drop boxes will tell you more about the 2026 outcome than any national poll.
- Monitor the "toss-up" list. Keep an eye on the 18 House races currently ranked as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. These few seats will decide who holds the gavel in 2027.
The 2026 cycle is moving fast, even if it doesn't feel like it yet. Staying ahead of the primary dates is the only way to ensure you're not caught off guard when the November 3rd general election finally rolls around.