Look, if you’re waiting for a classic, Currier & Ives blanket of white to cover the Garden State this week, you might want to manage those expectations. Everyone wants to know exactly how much snow will NJ get whenever the sky turns that specific shade of "winter gray," but the reality on the ground right now—mid-January 2026—is a lot more nuanced than a single number on a weather app.
Honestly, it’s a weird year. We are currently sitting in the middle of a weak La Niña pattern that’s supposed to be fading out. Usually, that means "warmer and drier," but if you've stepped outside today, Friday, January 16, you know the "warmer" part is a joke. It’s freezing. Wind chills are dipping into the single digits and teens.
The short answer for this weekend? Most of us are looking at a "nuisance" snowfall rather than a "bread and milk" emergency. We have two separate systems moving through—one on Saturday and a trickier coastal one on Sunday—and neither looks like a blockbuster.
The Weekend Breakdown: Saturday vs. Sunday
Let’s get into the weeds. Saturday is the more straightforward of the two. A weak system is sliding in, and it’s mostly going to be a northern New Jersey event. If you live in Sussex, Passaic, or Morris County, you’re likely seeing between 1 to 2 inches of the white stuff. It’ll start as snow early Saturday morning but will probably transition to a messy rain-snow mix as temperatures "warm up" (if you can call 38 degrees warm).
Down in Central Jersey and along the I-95 corridor? You might get a coating to an inch. Basically, enough to make the driveway look pretty for twenty minutes before it turns into slush.
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Sunday is the wildcard. Meteorologists like Dan Zarrow and the team at the National Weather Service are keeping a close eye on a coastal storm developing offshore. This is what we call the "wiggle factor." If that storm wobbles just 50 miles closer to the coast, southern and eastern Jersey—places like Atlantic City, Toms River, and Cape May—could get clipped by some heavy snow bands. Right now, the forecast is leaning toward a coating to 2 inches for the shore, but a "plus" sign is attached to that. If it moves closer, you could easily see 3 or 4 inches.
Why NJ Snow Totals are So Hard to Pin Down
New Jersey is a meteorological nightmare. You’ve got the influence of the Atlantic Ocean, the Delaware Bay, and the Appalachian foothills all fighting for dominance.
A single degree makes the difference between a scenic snowfall and a miserable, cold rain. When the temperature is 33°F, you get nothing but wet pavement. At 31°F, you’re shoveling. This weekend is a classic example of that "battleground" weather.
Seasonal Outlook: Is the Big One Still Coming?
So, looking past this weekend, what does the rest of the 2025-2026 winter look like? If you’re a snow lover, the data from NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center is... well, it’s okay.
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We are currently in a weak La Niña, but the models suggest we’ll transition to "ENSO-neutral" (basically normal conditions) by February or March. Here is the reality of what that means for our seasonal totals:
- Northern NJ (North of I-78): Usually averages about 35-50 inches a season. So far, we’re lagging behind, but the "active" part of the jet stream is shifting.
- Central NJ: We’ve seen more rain than snow so far this January.
- South Jersey/Jersey Shore: Joe Martucci and other local experts noted that this season is likely to have more coastal storms than last year. Even if the totals aren't massive, the frequency of "nuisance" snow is higher.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac and several long-range models have been pointing toward late January and February as the "real" winter. We’re seeing hints of more frequent Arctic air masses moving in. This means that while this weekend is a minor event, the pattern is finally "primed" for something bigger toward the end of the month.
The "Snow Drought" is Real
It’s worth noting that much of the Northeast has been in a bit of a snow drought over the last few years. In 2026, we are seeing a continuation of that trend where it's "cold enough" but "not wet enough," or "wet enough" but "too warm."
For example, Newark typically expects about 7 inches in January. We’ve had nowhere near that yet. The "snow water equivalent"—which is basically how much water is in the snow—has been low across the East Coast this year.
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What You Should Actually Prepare For
Stop looking at the 10-day forecast and thinking it's gospel. It isn't. Instead, focus on the immediate impacts of this weekend's double-header.
Watch the "Mixing Line"
The biggest danger this weekend isn't the depth of the snow; it’s the ice. On Saturday, as that snow turns to rain, it’s going to create a layer of slush that will freeze solid on Saturday night when temperatures drop back into the 20s.
Check the Sunday "Wobble"
If you’re in South Jersey, don’t ignore the Sunday storm just because the "totals" look low now. Coastal storms are notorious for "back-building." If you wake up Sunday and the radar shows dark blue over the ocean, get ready.
Actionable Next Steps for NJ Residents
- Treat your surfaces Friday night: Since the first flakes fall early Saturday, getting some brine or salt down now will prevent that first inch from bonding to your sidewalk.
- Monitor the I-95 corridor: This is the dividing line. If you are west of 95, expect more snow. East of 95, expect more slush and rain.
- Keep the gas tank full: Even a 2-inch snow event in NJ can turn the Garden State Parkway into a parking lot because people forget how to drive the second a snowflake hits the windshield.
- Ignore the "Hype" Maps: If you see a map on Facebook showing 12 inches of snow for Tuesday, check the source. If it isn't the NWS or a reputable local meteorologist, it’s likely a "rogue" model run that won't happen.
The bottom line is that New Jersey isn't getting buried this weekend, but the "constant companion" of cold air and frequent snow showers is finally here to stay for the rest of January. Keep the shovel handy, but you probably don't need the heavy-duty snowblower just yet.