You’ve seen the headlines. One day Alaska is an "oil-depleted" relic of the 70s, and the next, it’s the frontline of a massive energy war. Honestly, the answer to how much oil is in Alaska isn't just one number you can find on a dusty spreadsheet. It’s a moving target.
Between what’s already being pumped, what’s sitting in "proved" reserves, and the billions of barrels hidden under federal permafrost, the scale is honestly staggering. We’re talking about a state that has already produced over 18 billion barrels and still has people arguing over whether the "big stuff" is even gone yet.
Let's get into the weeds.
How Much Oil Is in Alaska Right Now?
If you want the hard, technical data, you look at "proved reserves." According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Alaska holds about 3.4 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves as of early 2026. This is the stuff we know is there, we can get to it, and it makes economic sense to pump it.
But that's just the tip of the iceberg.
Total production for 2026 is actually expected to hit around 477,000 barrels per day. That’s a 13% jump from last year. It might not sound like much compared to the Permian Basin in Texas, but for Alaska, it’s the biggest annual increase since the 1980s.
Why the sudden spike? Two words: Nuna and Pikka.
ConocoPhillips started the Nuna project late in 2024, and it’s finally hitting its stride. Then you have Pikka Phase 1, owned by Santos and Repsol. This thing is a beast. It’s slated to reach a peak of 80,000 barrels per day by mid-2026. These aren't your grandpa's oil wells. While 78% of older Alaskan wells struggle to put out 400 barrels a day, these new spots are averaging closer to 480.
The Phantom Barrels: Undiscovered Resources
Now, this is where it gets controversial. There is a massive difference between proved reserves and technically recoverable resources. The latter is the stuff we're pretty sure is there based on geology, but nobody has a permit to drill for it—or it’s physically locked away in a protected area.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) dropped a bombshell report recently suggesting that U.S. public lands—much of which are in Alaska—could hold upwards of 29.4 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil.
- ANWR (Arctic National Wildlife Refuge): The "Coastal Plain" here is basically the holy grail of untouched oil. Estimates range from 4.25 billion to 11.8 billion barrels.
- NPR-A (National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska): This is a 23-million-acre chunk of land where the massive Willow project lives. The USGS thinks there’s about 896 million barrels of conventional oil still waiting to be found here.
- Central North Slope: Experts think there’s another 3.6 billion barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of natural gas just chilling in conventional accumulations.
The Willow Project and the Next Decade
You can't talk about how much oil is in Alaska without mentioning Willow. ConocoPhillips is betting big on this. The project is designed to tap into roughly 600 million barrels of oil.
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At its peak, Willow could churn out 180,000 barrels per day.
Think about that. If Willow hits those numbers by 2029, Alaska’s total production could effectively triple when combined with other new developments. It’s a massive logistical nightmare to build—moving 200-foot-long drill rigs over ice roads that only exist for three months a year—but the payoff is billions in revenue for the state and the federal government.
Is the North Slope Running Dry?
People have been predicting the death of the North Slope since the 90s. And yeah, the "Big Three"—Prudhoe Bay, Kuparuk, and Alpine—are definitely old.
Prudhoe Bay was originally estimated to have 25 billion barrels of oil in place. It’s already spit out over 12 billion. Wikipedia and industry reports suggest maybe 4 billion barrels of recoverable oil remain there with current tech.
It’s mature. It’s tired. But it’s not dead.
The real story isn't that we're "running out." It's that the oil is getting harder and more expensive to reach. We’ve moved from the "easy" oil of the 70s to the "high-tech" oil of the 2020s. Using things like passive thermosyphons (which are basically giant heat pipes to keep the permafrost frozen while the oil stays hot) is now standard.
The Economic Reality
Alaska’s economy is basically a three-legged stool where two of the legs are made of oil.
In FY 2026, oil is expected to generate roughly $1.7 billion in unrestricted revenue for the state. That comes from taxes, royalties, and rents. When production goes up, the Permanent Fund (which pays out those yearly checks to residents) gets a boost.
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But there’s a catch.
The state’s Department of Revenue is forecasting an average price of around $70 per barrel for 2026. If the global market crashes or OPEC decides to flood the world with cheap crude to kill off US competition, Alaska feels it first. High production costs in the Arctic mean that if the price drops too low, those 29 billion "undiscovered" barrels stay exactly where they are: in the ground.
Actionable Insights: What This Means for You
If you're watching the energy sector or curious about Alaska's future, keep these points in your back pocket:
- Watch the 477k mark. If Alaska hits 477,000 barrels per day in 2026, it confirms that the North Slope "renaissance" is real and not just a fluke.
- Monitor Pikka and Willow. These are the barometers for the industry. If Pikka hits its 80,000-barrel peak on schedule mid-year, it’s a green light for more investment.
- The "Proved vs. Possible" Gap. Don't confuse the 3.4 billion barrels we're currently pumping with the 30+ billion barrels that might exist. The latter requires massive political shifts and infrastructure that doesn't exist yet.
- Follow Federal Policy. With the recent rollbacks of drilling limits and executive orders like "Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential," the legal landscape is shifting.
Alaska isn't out of the game. Not by a long shot. It’s just playing a more complicated, expensive, and high-stakes version of it than it did forty years ago.