If you look at the headlines lately, it feels like we’re back in 2020 or 2016, with everyone shouting over each other about who’s actually "winning." But since we’re sitting here in early 2026, the question how much is trump winning by has two very different answers depending on if you’re looking at the history books or the current mood of the country.
People are obsessed with margins. In the 2024 election, Donald Trump didn’t just squeak by in the Electoral College; he pulled off something a Republican hadn’t done in twenty years by actually taking the popular vote too. That’s the "win" that put him back in the Oval Office. But honestly, if you look at the approval ratings hitting the news wires this January, the "winning" streak looks a lot more complicated.
How Much Is Trump Winning By: Breaking Down the 2024 Victory
To understand where we are now, you have to look at the scoreboard from November 2024. Trump finished with 312 Electoral College votes compared to Kamala Harris’s 226. He swept all seven of the major swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
But the number that really shocked the pundits was the popular vote. Trump pulled in 77,303,568 votes, which was roughly 49.8% of the total. Harris trailed with 75,019,230 votes (about 48.3%).
That 1.5% margin might sound small. In a country of 330 million people, it is. But in the context of modern American politics, it was a seismic shift. For the first time since George W. Bush in 2004, a Republican candidate could claim they were the choice of the majority of voters who showed up.
📖 Related: Sweden School Shooting 2025: What Really Happened at Campus Risbergska
Why the Margin Mattered
- The Diverse Coalition: Trump actually won 48% of the Hispanic vote, according to Pew Research. That’s nearly parity.
- The Youth Shift: While Harris still won younger voters, the gap closed significantly compared to Biden’s 2020 run.
- The "Non-Voter" Factor: Interestingly, of the people who didn't vote in 2020 but showed up in 2024, Trump won that group 54% to 42%.
The 2026 Reality Check: Approval Ratings and the Midterm Shadow
Winning an election is one thing. Staying "on top" is another beast entirely. Now that we’re in 2026, the honeymoon period—if there ever was one—is long gone.
As of January 9, 2026, the polling averages from RealClearPolitics and Gallup show a pretty stark decline. Trump’s net approval rating has dipped into the negatives. We’re talking about an average 44.3% approval against a 52.5% disapproval.
Wait. Didn't he just win?
Yeah, but the "how much is trump winning by" question gets messy when you look at the 2026 midterms. Democrats are currently holding a lead in the "generic ballot"—that's the poll where they ask you if you'd vote for a random Democrat or a random Republican. According to Quinnipiac, about 47% of voters want Democrats to take the House, while only 43% want Republicans to keep it.
👉 See also: Will Palestine Ever Be Free: What Most People Get Wrong
Issues Weighing Down the Numbers
It’s not just one thing. It’s a pile-up.
- The Economy: Despite the campaign promises, only about 31% of people in a recent December poll approved of his handling of inflation and prices.
- Foreign Policy: Tensions in Venezuela and the ongoing debates over Ukraine have split the base.
- The "Power" Perception: More than half of Americans—54%, to be exact—told pollsters they think the administration is pushing the limits of presidential power too far.
Is He Still Winning in the Polls?
If "winning" means being the most popular person in the room, then no, not really. Gallup’s December 2025 data put his approval at 36%. That’s a massive drop from the 49.8% he got at the ballot box.
But politics isn't always about being liked. It's about the "floor." Trump’s floor remains incredibly solid with Republicans. About 84% to 86% of Republicans still back him. The problem for the GOP heading into the 2026 midterms is the Independents. Support among self-identified Independents dropped by 21 percentage points over the last year.
That’s a huge red flag for the incumbents. In places like Texas, we’re seeing a "rush to the exits" with nearly a quarter of the House delegation retiring or looking for other jobs. They see the "blue wave" forming and they don't want to be the ones standing on the beach.
✨ Don't miss: JD Vance River Raised Controversy: What Really Happened in Ohio
What to Watch Next
The narrative of how much is trump winning by is going to shift every week as we get closer to the 2026 primaries. Watch the special elections. Watch the consumer price index.
If you want to track the real-time "win" margin, don't just look at the President's Twitter (or Truth Social) posts where he claims 64% approval. Look at the non-partisan aggregators like Cook Political Report. They are currently tracking how redistricting and the "Donroe Doctrine" are affecting the map for November.
The 2024 margin was 1.5%. The 2026 "margin" is currently a deficit of about 8 to 12 points in net approval.
Actionable Steps for Staying Informed
- Check the Generic Ballot: This is the best predictor for the 2026 midterms. If the gap between "D" and "R" stays wider than 5 points, the GOP is in trouble.
- Ignore Single Polls: A single poll from one university might show a 10-point swing. Look at the averages over a 30-day period to see the actual trend.
- Monitor Independent Voters: This is the "swing" group. If Trump's approval with Independents stays below 30%, it’s almost impossible for his party to win the House back in November.
The numbers don't lie, but they do change. Right now, the victory of 2024 is meeting the reality of 2026, and the "winning" margin is thinner than it's been in years.