Ever watched the thin wisp of smoke curling out of the Sistine Chapel chimney and wondered what's actually happening behind those locked doors? It’s not just a bunch of guys in red hats chatting about theology. It is a high-stakes, hyper-regulated numbers game. If you’ve ever found yourself asking exactly how many votes to elect a pope, the answer is deceptively simple: two-thirds.
But, as with anything involving a 2,000-year-old institution, "simple" is a relative term.
The Magic Number: The Two-Thirds Rule
Basically, for a cardinal to become the Bishop of Rome, he needs to secure a two-thirds majority of the votes from the cardinal electors present.
This isn't just a suggestion. It’s the law. Specifically, it’s laid out in the Apostolic Constitution Universi Dominici Gregis, which was updated by Pope Benedict XVI in 2007. Before that, there was a brief period where things could have shifted to a simple majority after a long deadlock, but Benedict nixxed that. He wanted to ensure that whoever leads 1.3 billion Catholics has broad, undeniable support. No "squeaking by" with 51% allowed.
Doing the Math
Let’s look at the current landscape in 2026. If the College of Cardinals has the maximum allowed 120 electors (those under the age of 80) inside the conclave, the winner needs 80 votes.
If the number of electors is different—say, 115, which was the case when Pope Francis was elected in 2013—the math shifts slightly. You take the total number of cardinals present, multiply by two, divide by three, and if there’s a fraction, you round up to the next whole number.
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- 120 electors = 80 votes needed.
- 115 electors = 77 votes needed.
- 133 electors (if the 120 cap is exceeded, which sometimes happens before the conclave starts) = 89 votes needed.
Why Can’t They Just Use a Simple Majority?
You might think that after a week of being locked in a room with no Wi-Fi and limited sunlight, the cardinals would just want to go home and settle for a simple majority. Honestly, they used to have that option.
Pope John Paul II actually introduced a rule in 1996 that said if the cardinals were deadlocked after about 12 or 13 days (or roughly 33 or 34 ballots), they could vote to move the threshold down to a simple majority (50% + 1).
Benedict XVI changed it back. He felt—and many traditionalists agreed—that a Pope elected by only half the College would be a "weak" Pope. He didn't want the Church to be split down the middle like a political party. By forcing a two-thirds majority, the rules basically force the different factions (the progressives, the conservatives, the "wait-and-see" types) to actually talk to each other and find a candidate they can all live with.
What Happens if They Get Stuck?
If no one gets the required how many votes to elect a pope requires after the first few days, they don't just keep banging their heads against the wall. There is a very specific schedule of "cooling off" periods.
- The First Three Days: They vote. One ballot on the first afternoon, then four ballots a day (two morning, two afternoon).
- The First Pause: If no one is elected, they stop for a day. No voting. Just prayer, informal chatting, and probably a lot of espresso.
- The Seven-Ballot Cycles: They go back for seven more ballots. If that fails? Another pause.
- The Run-Off: If they hit a total of 33 or 34 unsuccessful ballots, the rules change. They move to a run-off between the top two candidates from the previous vote.
Even in this "sudden death" round, the winner still needs a two-thirds majority. Plus, the two guys being voted on? They lose their right to vote in that round. It prevents someone from casting the deciding vote for themselves.
The Secret Ballot Process (The "Scrutiny")
The actual voting is a bit of a production. It’s called the scrutiny, and it happens in three phases.
First, the Pre-Scrutiny. Every cardinal gets a rectangular piece of paper. On the top half, it says Eligo in summum pontificem—which means "I elect as supreme pontiff." They have to write the name of their choice in a way that disguises their handwriting. No signatures. No "Love, Cardinal Richelieu."
Then comes the Scrutiny itself. One by one, in order of seniority, they walk up to the altar under Michelangelo’s Last Judgment. They hold their ballot up, swear an oath that they are voting for the person they think God wants, and drop it into a chalice.
Finally, the Post-Scrutiny. Three "scrutineers" (think of them as the election judges) count the ballots. The third scrutineer reads the names out loud. As he reads them, he pierces each ballot with a needle through the word Eligo and strings them all together on a thread. This keeps the count organized and prevents any "oops, I dropped one" scenarios.
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From Black Smoke to White Smoke
Once the votes are counted and checked, the papers are burned.
If nobody reached the magic number, they toss in some chemicals (traditionally anthracene and sulfur, though the Vatican is cagey about the modern recipe) to make the smoke black. That’s the "try again" signal.
If someone finally hits that two-thirds mark? They burn the ballots alone (or with different chemicals) to produce the white smoke. That is the moment the world knows. The bells of St. Peter’s start ringing, and someone has to go ask the winner, "Do you accept?"
Why This Matters in 2026
With the shifting demographics of the College of Cardinals—more voices from Africa, Asia, and South America—hitting a two-thirds majority is arguably harder than it was fifty years ago. The College isn't just a club of Europeans anymore. You have cardinals from different cultures who have very different priorities.
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This diversity makes the two-thirds rule even more critical. It ensures that the next Pope isn't just the "European candidate" or the "American candidate," but someone who has garnered support across the global spectrum.
If you're following Church news, keep an eye on the "papabile" (the guys most likely to be elected). They usually fall into two or three camps. The winner is rarely the person who starts with the most votes; it’s the person who can convince the other camps to join them to reach that elusive 66.6% threshold.
Key Takeaways for Your Next Trivia Night:
- The magic number is two-thirds.
- If the count isn't divisible by three, you round up.
- Run-offs only happen after 33 or 34 failed ballots.
- Even in a run-off, you still need two-thirds.
To truly understand the current state of the College of Cardinals, you should look into the most recent "consistories" (the meetings where new cardinals are created). Knowing who appointed the current voters—whether it was Pope Francis or his predecessors—gives you a much better roadmap of where those two-thirds might eventually land.