Ever wonder what actually happens when that black or white smoke drifts over St. Peter’s Square? Most people think it’s just a bunch of guys in red hats praying until they agree. Honestly, it’s way more technical than that. It’s a high-stakes, ancient election with very specific math. If you've ever asked yourself how many votes do you need to become pope, the short answer is a two-thirds majority.
But "two-thirds" is just the surface.
The rules have shifted over centuries, moving from simple majorities to strict mandates, and even back again for a brief, controversial moment under Pope John Paul II. To understand the threshold, you have to understand the Conclave—a word that literally means "with a key." They lock these men in the Sistine Chapel for a reason. They aren't leaving until someone hits that magic number.
The Magic Number: Why Two-Thirds Matters
Since the 1179 Third Council of the Lateran, the Church has been obsessed with the two-thirds requirement. Why? Because it prevents a tiny, slim majority from forcing a candidate on a massive, global institution. If you only needed 51%, the Church could end up permanently fractured. By demanding two-thirds, the law ensures that the new Pope has broad, undeniable support across different continents and theological camps.
Right now, the maximum number of "Cardinal Electors"—those under the age of 80—is capped at 120.
If all 120 show up, you do the math. $120 \times \frac{2}{3} = 80$. You need 80 votes.
But here is where it gets tricky. If the total number of cardinals isn't divisible by three, you need two-thirds plus one. For example, in a scenario with 115 electors (which was the case when Pope Francis was elected in 2013), the math works out to 76.66. You can't have two-thirds of a human being. So, the requirement scales up to the next whole number. In 2013, the winner needed 77 votes.
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The John Paul II "Loophole" That Disappeared
There was a moment in recent history where the answer to how many votes do you need to become pope almost changed forever. In 1996, Pope John Paul II released a document called Universi Dominici Gregis. It was a massive overhaul of the vacancy rules.
Deep inside that document, he added a controversial clause. He suggested that if the Cardinals were deadlocked for about 12 days (roughly 33 or 34 ballots), they could vote to change the rules. They could decide, by an absolute majority, to elect the next Pope with just a simple majority (50% plus one).
Critics hated this.
They argued it would lead to "strategic holding." A faction could just sit tight, refuse to budge, and wait out the two weeks until they could ram their candidate through with a simple majority. It took away the incentive to compromise. Benedict XVI saw the danger here. In 2007, he issued a Motu Proprio (a fancy Latin term for "on his own impulse") that struck down the majority rule. He restored the traditional two-thirds requirement, regardless of how long the Conclave lasts.
So, as it stands today, it's two-thirds or nothing. No shortcuts.
Inside the Sistine Chapel: How the Voting Actually Works
It’s not a digital poll. There are no iPads. It is incredibly analog.
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Each Cardinal receives a rectangular piece of paper. At the top, it says Eligo in Summum Pontificem ("I elect as Supreme Pontiff"). Below that, they write the name. But they are told to disguise their handwriting. Seriously. The goal is total anonymity so no one can be bullied or pressured based on how they voted.
They fold the ballot twice. They walk up to the altar, hold it up, and swear an oath. Then they drop it into a chalice.
The Counting Process
Three "Scrutineers" are chosen by lot to manage the count.
- The first Scrutineer shakes the chalice to mix the ballots.
- The second Scrutineer starts the count. If the number of ballots doesn't match the number of Cardinals, you burn them immediately and start over.
- The third Scrutineer reads the names aloud and pokes a needle through the word "Eligo" on each ballot, threading them onto a string to keep them organized.
If no one hits the two-thirds mark, the ballots are burned with a chemical additive to create black smoke. If someone hits the mark, and they accept the job, the papers are burned to create white smoke. This happens four times a day—two in the morning, two in the afternoon—until the requirement is met.
What Happens During a Deadlock?
If they hit a wall, they don't just keep voting until they pass out. After three days of unsuccessful voting, they take a break. A full day for prayer, "informal discussion," and probably a decent amount of espresso. They are allowed to talk, lobby, and figure out who the "compromise candidate" might be.
If they still can't reach two-thirds after seven more ballots, they take another break. This cycle repeats. Eventually, if they are well into the process, the rules allow for a "run-off" between the two candidates who received the most votes in the previous ballot. However, even in a run-off, the winner still needs a two-thirds majority. The two people in the run-off are stripped of their right to vote in that specific round to prevent someone from voting for themselves to clinch the win.
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The Human Element: Why the Math Fails
You’d think with such a clear number, the process would be fast. It rarely is. In 1268, the Cardinals took nearly three years to choose a Pope. The locals got so frustrated they literally tore the roof off the building to "let the Holy Spirit in" (and to let the rain in, which was probably more effective).
In modern times, Conclaves are much shorter.
- Pope Benedict XVI (2005): 4 ballots (2 days).
- Pope Francis (2013): 5 ballots (2 days).
- Pope Pius XII (1939): 3 ballots (1 day).
Usually, once a candidate starts gaining momentum and approaches that two-thirds threshold, the "swing voters" move quickly to join the winning side. Nobody wants to be the one holding up the process once the writing is on the wall. It’s a psychological tipping point as much as a mathematical one.
The Impact of Age and Geography on the Vote
The pool of voters is always changing. Since 1970, Cardinals over 80 can't vote. This was Paul VI’s way of ensuring the "electors" were somewhat in touch with the modern world, though "modern" is a relative term in the Vatican.
The geographic makeup is the real story. In the past, Italian Cardinals dominated the vote. It was almost impossible for a non-Italian to hit two-thirds because the local bloc was so strong. That changed with John Paul II (Polish). Then Benedict (German). Then Francis (Argentinian).
Today, the College of Cardinals is more diverse than ever. You have voters from Tonga, Ethiopia, and Mongolia. This makes hitting how many votes do you need to become pope much harder to predict. You can't just win the "Italian bloc" or the "European bloc" anymore. You need a coalition that spans the Global South and the West.
Actionable Takeaways for Following the Next Conclave
When the next Sede Vacante (the period when the see is vacant) occurs, don't just watch the smoke. Look at the numbers.
- Check the Elector Count: Find the total number of Cardinals under 80 on the day the Pope dies or resigns. Divide by three and round up if there's a remainder. That is your "Golden Number."
- Watch for the "Third Day" Shift: If no one is elected in the first two days, look for news of the "break day." This is when the real deals are made.
- Ignore the "Papabile" Lists: History shows that he who enters the Conclave a Pope, leaves a Cardinal. The person everyone expects to win often fails to hit two-thirds because they are too polarizing.
- Monitor the Smoke Times: Smoke usually goes up around 12:00 PM and 6:00 PM Rome time. If white smoke appears earlier, it means the vote happened on the first ballot of that session, indicating a massive, quick consensus.
Understanding the vote count is about more than just trivia. It’s about seeing how a 2,000-year-old institution balances tradition with the brutal reality of political math. It is the only election in the world where the voters are locked in a room, the ballots are burned, and the winner is expected to hold the job until they die. The two-thirds rule is the only thing keeping that process from descending into total chaos.