Smoke. That’s usually the first thing people look for when a pope dies or retires. They crowd into St. Peter's Square, craning their necks toward a tiny chimney, waiting for a signal that the 1.3 billion Catholics on the planet finally have a leader. But behind that smoke is a grueling, secretive process that functions more like a high-stakes political thriller than a Sunday Mass. You’d think picking a global spiritual leader would be about vibes or divine inspiration—and the Cardinals would tell you it is—but legally, it’s all about the math.
So, how many votes are needed to become pope?
Basically, you need a two-thirds majority. That’s the magic number. If there are 120 Cardinals locked in the Sistine Chapel, the winner needs 80 votes. If someone gets 79? No pope. Black smoke. We try again. It sounds simple, but the history behind that specific fraction is actually kind of wild, and the rules have changed more often than you might realize.
The Two-Thirds Rule and Why It Sticks
The Church didn't always have a strict "two-thirds" requirement. In the early days, things were messy. Sometimes the people of Rome just shouted for their favorite guy. Other times, local kings picked the pope. It wasn't until the Third Lateran Council in 1179 that the Church officially settled on the two-thirds rule. Why? Because they were tired of "antipopes"—guys who claimed to be the real pope because a small group of rebel Cardinals backed them. By requiring a supermajority, the Church ensured that whoever won actually had the broad support of the college.
It makes sense. You can't really lead a global institution if half the board of directors hates your guts.
For a brief window of time, things changed. In 1996, Pope John Paul II released a document called Universi Dominici Gregis. He added a weird little loophole: if the Cardinals were stuck for a long time (about 12 days of voting), they could vote to move to an absolute majority—just 50% plus one. It was a "break the glass" emergency measure. But Pope Benedict XVI saw that coming and said, "Nope." In 2007, he reversed it. He realized that if a simple majority was all you needed, a dominant faction could just wait out the clock and force their candidate through.
Today, the two-thirds rule is back in full force. No shortcuts. You win big, or you don't win at all.
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What Happens if Nobody Reaches the Number?
The Conclave is designed to be uncomfortable. That’s on purpose. The word "conclave" literally means "with a key" (cum clave). They lock the doors. They take away your phones. They sweep the room for bugs. Honestly, it’s a bit like a jury deliberation, but with way more silk and Latin.
If nobody hits that two-thirds mark on the first ballot, they keep going. Usually, there are four votes a day: two in the morning and two in the afternoon. If they go three days without a winner, they take a break for prayer and "informal discussion." That's code for "lobbying." They do this again after seven more votes, and again after another seven.
It’s a grueling cycle of voting, burning ballots, and praying.
If they hit a total of about 33 or 34 failed ballots, the rules shift slightly. Under the current law, they stop voting on everyone and focus only on the top two candidates from the last round. This is essentially a "runoff." But here’s the kicker: even in that runoff between the top two, the winner still needs that two-thirds majority. And those two candidates? They lose their right to vote for themselves in that final stretch.
Who Actually Gets to Vote?
You can’t just walk in and cast a ballot because you’re a devout Catholic. The "voters" are a specific group called the College of Cardinals. But even within that group, there’s an age limit. If you’re 80 or older on the day the papacy becomes vacant, you’re out. You can’t vote. You can watch on TV, but you don't get a seat in the Sistine Chapel.
The number of "cardinal electors" is capped at 120. Sometimes it’s a little less if someone died recently or aged out, but they try to keep it near that 120 mark. This is why the specific number of votes needed to become pope fluctuates slightly.
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- If there are 115 electors, you need 77 votes.
- If there are 120 electors, you need 80 votes.
- If there are 110 electors, you need 74 votes.
The math is always $V = \lceil \frac{2}{3} \cdot n \rceil$, where $n$ is the number of electors present.
The Scrutiny Process: How the Votes Are Handled
The voting process, called "Scrutiny," is incredibly formal. Each Cardinal gets a rectangular piece of paper. At the top, it says Eligo in Summum Pontificem ("I elect as Supreme Pontiff"). They have to disguise their handwriting so no one can tell who wrote what. Then, one by one, they walk up to the altar under Michelangelo’s Last Judgment and swear an oath before dropping the ballot into a chalice.
It’s intense.
Once the ballots are in, three "Scrutineers" count them. The third Scrutineer pierces each ballot with a needle through the word Eligo and strings them together on a thread. This way, they don't lose any. If the math doesn't add up—if there are 116 ballots but only 115 Cardinals—they have to burn them all immediately and start over.
Myths About the Vote
People often think the Pope has to be a Cardinal. Technically? No. Any baptized male Catholic can be elected. In theory, they could pick your neighbor or a local parish priest. If that happened, and the guy wasn't a bishop yet, they’d have to ordain him on the spot before he could officially take office.
But let’s be real. The last time they picked someone who wasn't a Cardinal was Urban VI in 1378. It didn't go well. It actually led to a massive schism. Since then, they’ve stuck to the "Princes of the Church."
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Another myth is that the vote is always a long, drawn-out affair. Pope Benedict XVI was elected in about 24 hours. Pope Francis took about 26 hours. These modern Conclaves are actually moving faster because the Cardinals usually have a good idea of the "front-runners" before the doors even lock. They talk during the "General Congregations" (the meetings held before the Conclave starts), so the actual voting is often just confirming what everyone already suspects.
Why the Number Matters for the Future
The "two-thirds" requirement is the ultimate stabilizer. It prevents a "radical" from taking over the Church unless they have massive support across different continents. Right now, the College of Cardinals is more international than it has ever been. You have voters from the Philippines, Brazil, Ghana, and Chicago all sitting in the same room. Getting 66% of that diverse group to agree on one man is a massive hurdle.
It forces compromise. It forces the "middle ground."
When you look at the math, you realize that being a "favorite" isn't enough. You have to be acceptable to almost everyone. If a candidate has 55% of the room, they aren't the next Pope—they are just a guy with a lot of enemies in the other 45%. That 45% can block him forever until a compromise candidate emerges. This is exactly how "dark horse" candidates often end up wearing the white cassock.
Key Takeaways for Following the Next Conclave
When the next Conclave happens, don't just look for the smoke. Keep these points in mind:
- Check the Number of Electors: Before the doors lock, news outlets will report the exact number of Cardinals entering. Divide that by three and multiply by two. That is the only number that matters.
- Watch for the "Third Day" Plateau: If no one is elected by the end of the third day, the "momentum" of the front-runner is likely dead. This is when the "compromise" names start leaking out.
- The Age Factor: Watch the Cardinals who are 78 or 79. They are in their last chance to vote. Often, these older Cardinals favor "stability" over "revolution," which heavily influences the two-thirds math.
- The 77% Margin: While 66.6% is the legal requirement, most Popes in the modern era aren't announced until they have an even higher percentage. Once a candidate nears the two-thirds mark, the remaining "holdouts" usually switch their votes in the final tally to show unity.
The process is designed to ensure that when the new Pope steps out onto that balcony, he doesn't just have a "win"—he has a mandate. Understanding the two-thirds rule explains why the Church moves so slowly, and why, despite all the political maneuvering, the final choice usually surprises everyone. It’s not just a vote; it’s a math-induced consensus.
To track this during a live event, always start by confirming the total number of cardinal electors present, as absences for health or travel can shift the exact threshold required for a valid election.