Ever tried to get a straight answer about the population of a specific group in a region as massive and complicated as Xinjiang? It's not as simple as checking a live counter. Honestly, if you're asking how many Uyghurs in China are living there right now, you’ve probably seen two very different stories. One side gives you a clean, rising line on a graph. The other talks about a demographic crisis that’s changing the face of Central Asia.
Basically, the "official" number sits at around 11.77 million. That's from the 2020 Chinese National Census. But demographics in a place like Xinjiang—officially the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR)—are about way more than just a headcount. It’s about who is moving in, who is being moved out, and why the birth rates in the southern oases suddenly plummeted a few years back.
The Official Count: Breaking Down the 11.7 Million
According to the Seventh National Population Census conducted by Beijing in 2020, there were 11,624,257 Uyghurs in Xinjiang. If you add in the small communities living in other parts of China—like the Taoyuan Uyghurs in Hunan or the migrant workers in coastal factory hubs—the total climbs to roughly 11.8 million.
For context, the total population of Xinjiang is about 25.85 million.
This means Uyghurs make up about 45% of the region’s people. It’s a huge shift from 1953, when they were nearly 75% of the population. What happened? Well, Han Chinese migration into the region has been massive. Back in the 50s, the Han population was only around 6%. Today? It’s over 42%, nearly equal to the Uyghur population. You’ve got cities like the capital, Ürümqi, which are now majority Han, while the southern regions like Kashgar and Hotan remain the Uyghur heartland.
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Why the Numbers Get Complicated
You’ve probably heard the reports from the UN and various human rights groups about "re-education camps." This is where the math gets messy. Researchers like Adrian Zenz and organizations like Amnesty International have estimated that since 2017, anywhere from 1 million to 1.8 million Uyghurs and other Turkic minorities have been held in these facilities.
When people ask "how many Uyghurs in China," they aren't just asking for a total. They’re asking where they are.
- In Prisons/Camps: While China says these people have "graduated" or were in "vocational centers," many independent researchers say a huge chunk of the adult male population has been funneled into the formal prison system.
- Forced Labor Transfers: Thousands of Uyghurs have been moved to factories in provinces like Guangdong or Jiangsu. They’re still in the "total count," but they aren't in their homes.
- The Birth Rate Cliff: Between 2017 and 2019, birth rates in some Uyghur-majority areas dropped by over 60%. That is an insane statistical anomaly. It’s usually caused by war or famine, but here, experts point to state-mandated sterilizations and strict birth control quotas.
Life in the Oases: Beyond the Statistics
If you were to walk through the streets of Old Kashgar (or what’s left of it after the "modernization" projects), you’d see a culture that is Turkic, not Chinese. They speak a language closely related to Uzbek. They eat polu (pilaf) and nan bread.
But the population is under what’s arguably the most intense surveillance on earth.
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There’s this program called "Unite as One Family." Basically, over a million Han Chinese officials were assigned to live in Uyghur homes. They stay for days, eating with the families and watching if they pray, if they have a Quran, or if they act "extremist." Imagine trying to get an accurate census count in a home where a government monitor is sleeping on your couch. People are understandably scared to self-identify or speak up.
The Diaspora Factor
There are also a lot of Uyghurs who aren't in the China count anymore.
- Kazakhstan: Home to over 300,000.
- Turkey: Estimates say around 50,000 to 100,000.
- The West: Smaller but vocal communities in the US, Germany, and Australia.
Many of these people have lost contact with their families back in Xinjiang. Since 2017, phone lines have gone dead. If you call your cousin in Kashgar from a US area code, you might just get them sent to a camp for "suspicious foreign ties."
What the 2026 Outlook Looks Like
So, where does that leave us? As of 2026, the official growth of the Uyghur population has slowed to a crawl. The Chinese government points to "improved healthcare" and "voluntary family planning" as the reason. They argue that the population is still growing, just more "rationally."
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Critics see it differently. They see a deliberate attempt to dilute the Uyghur identity until the "Autonomous Region" is autonomous in name only.
The reality? The number of Uyghurs is likely still hovering around that 12 million mark, but the concentration of the population is being broken up. Between "labor transfers" to the coast and the influx of Han settlers into new apartment blocks in the north, the traditional Uyghur way of life is being physically moved.
Actionable Insights for the Informed Reader
If you want to track this issue beyond just a single number, here is what you should actually look for:
- Follow the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China: They release annual data, but look specifically at the natural growth rate in Xinjiang compared to other provinces.
- Check Satellite Imagery Projects: Groups like the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) use satellites to track the footprint of detention centers. If these are growing, the "free" population is effectively shrinking.
- Support Diaspora Documentation: Projects like the Uyghur Victim Database track individual names of the missing. It’s a way to humanize the data points.
The question of how many Uyghurs in China isn't just about a census. It's a look into a shifting demographic battleground where numbers are used as both a shield and a weapon.
To get the most accurate picture, you have to look at the space between the official white papers and the testimonies of those who have managed to leave. The truth usually lives somewhere in that uncomfortable gap.