Whenever a tragedy involving a firearm makes the national news, the same question starts swirling around social media almost instantly: who was the shooter? Lately, that question has been followed by a very specific, often politically charged claim. You've probably seen it. Someone posts that there's an "epidemic" or a "surge" of a certain demographic behind the trigger. Specifically, people are asking how many transgender shooters have there actually been?
It’s a heavy topic. Honestly, the noise around this makes it hard to find a straight answer. Between viral tweets and cable news segments, the facts often get buried under a pile of narrative-pushing. If you're looking for the actual numbers—not the talking points—you have to look at the databases that professional criminologists use.
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Breaking Down the Actual Numbers
So, let's get into it. According to the Gun Violence Archive (GVA), which is one of the most cited independent research groups tracking gun violence in the U.S., the numbers are incredibly low. From 2013 through late 2025, there were over 5,700 mass shootings recorded in their database. Out of those thousands of incidents, the GVA confirmed exactly five cases involving a transgender shooter.
That is less than 0.1% of all mass shootings in that timeframe.
Wait, why do some people say the number is seven or eight? This usually comes down to how you define a "mass shooting." The GVA defines it as four or more people shot, regardless of whether they died. Other groups, like The Violence Project, use a much stricter definition: four or more people killed in a public place, excluding the shooter, and not related to gang or drug activity.
The Criminology Perspective
When you use that stricter "mass public shooting" definition, the number of transgender perpetrators drops even further. James Densley and Jillian Peterson, the researchers behind The Violence Project, have noted that out of hundreds of mass shooters in their historical database dating back to 1966, only one individual was confirmed as transgender.
That single case was the 2023 shooting at a school in Nashville.
Most of the time, the data shows a very different pattern. About 97.5% of mass shooters are cisgender men. That’s just the reality of the statistics. Transgender people make up roughly 0.5% to 1.6% of the U.S. population, but they are significantly underrepresented among those who commit these crimes.
Why the Misinformation Spreads So Fast
If the numbers are this low, why does it feel like we hear about this all the time? Basically, it's a mix of high-profile cases and some flat-out hoaxes.
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In the immediate aftermath of a shooting, social media often goes into a frenzy. For example, during the 2022 Uvalde shooting, photos of a random transgender woman from the internet were circulated with claims that she was the shooter. She wasn't. It was a total lie. Similar hoaxes happened after the 2024 Abundant Life Christian School shooting and the Lakewood Church incident.
- The Nashville Case (2023): This was a real event involving a trans man, and because it was so high-profile, it became the primary "proof" used by people claiming a trend exists.
- The Colorado Springs Club Q Case (2022): This one is tricky. The shooter's defense lawyers claimed their client was nonbinary, but many victims and prosecutors argued this was a legal tactic to avoid hate crime charges, given the shooter's history of anti-LGBTQ rhetoric.
- The Aberdeen/Highlands Ranch Cases: There have been a few other incidents over the last decade involving individuals who identified as trans or nonbinary, but they represent a tiny fraction of the thousands of shootings that happen every year.
Experts like Dr. Ragy Girgis, a professor of clinical psychiatry at Columbia University, have been pretty clear: being transgender is not a "causative factor" in violence. There is no evidence that gender identity leads to mass shootings.
The Reality of Violence and the Trans Community
While the public focus is often on the perpetrator, the data on victims tells a much more frequent story. Transgender people, especially Black trans women, are statistically far more likely to be the victims of gun violence than the ones behind the gun.
According to the Williams Institute at UCLA, LGBTQ+ individuals are more than twice as likely to be victims of violent crime compared to their cisgender, straight peers. In 2026, the data continues to show that nearly 20% of all hate crimes in the U.S. are motivated by bias against sexual orientation or gender identity.
It's also worth noting that transgender youth face massive rates of bullying and threats at school. About 29% of trans youth have been threatened with a weapon on school grounds, which is more than four times the rate of their cisgender classmates.
What the Data Teaches Us
Focusing on the rare instances of transgender shooters often distracts from the broader, more consistent risk factors that criminologists actually worry about.
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- History of Domestic Violence: A huge number of mass shooters have a history of abusing partners or family members.
- Crisis Points: Most shooters are in a noticeable state of crisis or are suicidal before an attack.
- Access to Firearms: Legal or illegal access to high-capacity weapons remains the most direct commonality.
When we talk about how many transgender shooters there are, the answer is "very few." It’s a handful of cases in a sea of thousands.
Actionable Next Steps
If you want to stay informed and help lower the temperature of these conversations, here is what you can do:
- Verify before sharing: If you see a claim about a shooter's identity within the first 24 hours of an event, wait for a police report or a reputable news outlet (like AP or Reuters) to confirm it.
- Check the database: Use tools like the Gun Violence Archive or The Violence Project to look up demographics yourself rather than relying on social media graphics.
- Focus on the commonalities: Instead of focusing on gender identity, look at the documented risk factors like "leakage" (where a shooter tells someone about their plans) or previous records of domestic abuse.
Ultimately, the math is simple: the "surge" of transgender shooters is a narrative that isn't supported by the actual numbers. Staying grounded in the statistics helps us focus on real solutions rather than being led by fear or misinformation.