Whenever a high-profile shooting hits the news, social media usually explodes within minutes. You've probably seen the posts. They often claim there is a "rising tide" of violence from the transgender community. But honestly, if you look at the raw numbers from the people who actually track this stuff—like the FBI or the Gun Violence Archive—the reality is a lot different from the viral tweets.
So, how many trans shooters have there actually been?
The short answer is: almost none.
Breaking Down the Hard Numbers
If we look at the last decade of data, the numbers are tiny. According to the Gun Violence Archive, which tracks every single incident where four or more people are shot, there have been over 5,700 mass shootings in the United States since 2013. Out of those thousands of tragedies, exactly five involved shooters who were confirmed to be transgender or non-binary.
That is less than 0.1% of all mass shootings.
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For a little perspective, about 0.5% to 1.6% of the U.S. adult population identifies as transgender. This means trans people aren't just "not prone to violence"—they are actually statistically underrepresented as perpetrators of these crimes.
The Myth of the "Trans Shooting Trend"
You might remember the 2023 Nashville school shooting. It was a horrific event, and because the shooter was a trans man, it became a massive talking point for months. People pointed to it as evidence of a "new phenomenon."
But one case doesn't make a trend.
The Violence Project, a non-partisan research center that maintains one of the most comprehensive databases of mass shooters since 1966, has analyzed over 200 public mass shootings. Their database shows that 97.5% of these shooters are cisgender men. Only 2% are cisgender women. And less than 1%—historically just a single individual in their specific public mass shooting dataset—was transgender.
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Why do people think the number is higher?
Basically, it comes down to how information spreads. In the immediate aftermath of a shooting, before a suspect is even named, there’s often a rush to find a "motive." In recent years, several shooters were falsely labeled as trans by social media "sleuths."
- Uvalde (2022): Photos of a random trans woman from the internet were circulated, claiming she was the shooter. She wasn't.
- Lakewood Church (2024): Initial rumors claimed the shooter was trans. Law enforcement later confirmed she was a cisgender woman with a history of using various aliases.
- Philadelphia (2023): Rumors spread that the suspect was trans because of photos of them in a dress, but police later clarified the suspect did not identify as transgender.
When these false reports go viral, they leave a lasting impression. Even after the facts come out, the "feeling" that there are many trans shooters sticks around.
The Reality of Violence and the Trans Community
It's kinda wild when you look at the data on who is actually at risk. While the narrative focuses on trans people as perpetrators, they are far more likely to be the victims.
Research from the Williams Institute at UCLA School of Law found that transgender people are over four times more likely than cisgender people to be victims of violent crime. This includes rape, sexual assault, and aggravated assault.
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When we talk about guns specifically, the Everytown for Gun Safety Research & Policy group found that between 2017 and 2022, there were at least 228 homicides of transgender people in the U.S. Most of these victims were Black trans women.
Expert Take: Is Gender Identity a Factor?
Dr. Ragy Girgis, a clinical psychiatry professor at Columbia University and an expert on mass murders, has been pretty clear about this. He notes that being transgender is not a "causative factor" in shootings.
Basically, mass shootings are a complex cocktail of factors: social isolation, history of trauma, access to firearms, and often a desire for notoriety. Being trans just doesn't fit into the profile of why these things happen.
If you want to understand the "why" behind gun violence, the data points much more strongly toward things like domestic violence history or "leakage" (where a shooter tells someone about their plans beforehand).
Practical Steps for Finding Real Information
Next time you see a headline or a post about a shooter's identity, here is how to verify it:
- Wait 48 hours. Initial reports are almost always wrong about something. Whether it’s the body count, the weapon used, or the shooter’s identity, the first hour is "the fog of war."
- Check the Source. Look for statements from local law enforcement or the FBI rather than political commentators.
- Consult Databases. The Gun Violence Archive and The Violence Project are the gold standards for historical data. They don't have a political dog in the fight; they just count.
- Look for Retractions. If a major news outlet makes an error, they will post a correction. Viral social media accounts rarely do.
Understanding the actual statistics helps move the conversation away from scapegoating and toward real solutions for public safety. Relying on verified data from the FBI and non-partisan researchers ensures that we are tackling the problem of violence based on facts, not fear-based narratives.