You’ve probably seen the headlines lately. People keep asking, honestly, how many points does donald trump have right now as we roll into 2026? It’s a messy question. Polling isn’t a video game where you just look at a scoreboard and see a single number. Instead, you're looking at a fractured landscape of approval ratings, favorability scores, and head-to-head matchups that change faster than a social media feed.
Right now, the numbers aren't exactly pretty for the White House.
If we look at the hard data from January 2026, most major aggregators like RealClearPolitics and Decision Desk HQ have Trump sitting with an approval rating somewhere between 36% and 42%. That’s a pretty wide gap, but the trend is undeniably downward. When he took the oath again in January 2025, he was riding high around 50%. A year later? The "honeymoon" hasn't just ended; it's basically been evicted.
Tracking the Numbers: How Many Points Does Donald Trump Have in 2026?
To understand where he stands, we have to look at the "net" score. This is basically the math of Approve minus Disapprove. According to recent Gallup data from late 2025 and early January 2026, Trump’s approval hit a second-term low of 36%. Meanwhile, his disapproval shot up to 60%.
That gives him a net score of -24 points.
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But wait. If you switch over to Ballotpedia’s Polling Index, they show him a bit higher at 42% approval. Why the difference? It comes down to who they’re asking. Polls that look at "Registered Voters" usually give Trump a few more points than polls that just talk to "All Adults."
It's kinda wild how much the demographic split matters here.
- Republicans: He’s still the king. About 84% to 91% of the GOP still backs him.
- Independents: This is where the floor fell out. His support here dropped about 21 points over the last year, landing him around 25% to 29%.
- Democrats: Pretty much non-existent, hovering at 3% to 6%.
The "Points" That Actually Matter for the Midterms
When political junkies ask about "points," they’re often talking about the Generic Congressional Ballot. This is the big one for the 2026 midterms. If the election were held today, how many points would the GOP have versus the Democrats?
Right now, the Democrats are leading by about 4.5 to 5.3 points in most national surveys. According to the Cook Political Report, this shift has already moved 18 competitive House seats toward the "Blue" column. It’s not a "blue wave" yet, but it’s definitely a rising tide.
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Why the Numbers Are Moving
So, why the slide? Honestly, it’s the economy. Even though Trump argues that "inflation has stopped," the average person at the grocery store doesn't seem to feel it. Brookings Institution recently noted that 66% of Americans cite the economy, inflation, or healthcare as their top concern.
On those specific "point" totals, Trump is struggling:
- Economy Approval: Roughly 36% to 39%
- Inflation Handling: 36%
- Healthcare Policy: 30% (his lowest score)
Strangely enough, he still gets decent marks on things like Crime (43%) and Foreign Affairs (41%), but those aren't the issues keeping people up at night right now. People care about the price of eggs more than they care about Greenland or Venezuela.
The Real-World Impact of -24 Points
When a president is 24 points underwater, things get difficult in Washington. We’re starting to see this with the 2026 midterm forecasts. Analysts like Charles Tien are already predicting the GOP could lose around 28 seats in the House this November.
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If that happens, Trump becomes a "lame duck" only two years into his term.
But there is a silver lining for the Trump camp. About 40% of the electorate says they are still willing to change their minds. If the economy actually does see that "boom" he's been promising before the summer, those approval points could bounce back just as fast as they dropped.
Actionable Insights for Following the Polls
If you're trying to keep track of how many points does donald trump have without getting lost in the noise, keep these three things in mind:
- Watch the "Net" Number: Don't just look at approval. Look at the gap between approval and disapproval. A 40% approval sounds okay until you realize disapproval is at 55%.
- Focus on Independents: Since the GOP and Democrats are locked in, the only points that move the needle are the Independent voters. If that 25% number starts climbing back toward 40%, he's in a much stronger position.
- Check the "Right Direction" Track: Currently, only about 36% of Americans think the country is headed in the right direction. Until that number moves, individual approval ratings are likely to stay stagnant.
The best way to stay updated is to check multi-poll aggregators like FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics at least once a week, as a single poll is often just a statistical outlier.