Everyone spent months shouting about polls and "too close to call" margins. Then election night actually happened. Honestly, if you’re looking for the simple answer to how many points did trump win by, the national popular vote spread ended up at roughly 1.5 percentage points.
But that's just the tip of the iceberg.
Politics in 2024 wasn't just about a single number. It was about a map that turned almost entirely red—even in places where Democrats usually sleep soundly. Trump pulled in 312 Electoral College votes compared to Kamala Harris’s 226. That’s a 58% share of the electoral map. To put it simply: he swept every single one of the seven major swing states. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all went his way.
The Raw Numbers Nobody Talks About
Let’s get into the weeds for a second because the raw vote totals are kinda wild. Trump didn't just win; he became the first Republican to win the popular vote since George W. Bush did it back in 2004. He racked up 77,303,568 votes (about 49.8%). Harris finished with 75,019,230 votes (48.3%).
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When you look at the gap, it’s about 2.3 million votes. That sounds like a lot, right? Well, compared to historical landslides, it’s actually pretty tight. If you compare it to 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote by about 4.5 percentage points. So, while Trump's win was decisive in the Electoral College, the national mood was still split pretty close to the middle.
What’s truly fascinating is where those votes came from. Trump didn't just hold his old base. He actually expanded it into groups that used to be "off-limits" for Republicans.
- Hispanic Voters: This was the shocker. Trump battled to near parity, winning about 48% of the Hispanic vote. For context, he only got 36% in 2020.
- Younger Men: Among men under 50, Trump actually pulled ahead or stayed neck-and-neck with Harris, a massive swing from the double-digit lead Biden had in that group.
- Urban Areas: Even in deep blue cities like New York and Chicago, the "red shift" was real. He didn't win them, but he lost them by much smaller margins than before.
Why the Electoral College Margin Mattered More
You’ll hear some people say a 1.5-point win is "narrow." Technically, they’re right. It’s the fourth smallest popular vote winning margin since 1960. But in the Electoral College, a win is a win. By taking all seven battlegrounds, he effectively shut the door on any path for the Democrats.
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Take Pennsylvania. That was the big prize. Trump won it by about 1.7 points (50.4% to 48.7%). It wasn't a blowout, but it was enough to flip 19 electoral votes. In Michigan, the margin was even tighter—just about 1.4 points. These aren't huge gaps, but they all tipped in the same direction.
Comparing 2024 to 2016 and 2020
People love to compare Trump to... well, Trump.
In 2016, he won 306 electoral votes but lost the popular vote by about 2.1 points. In 2020, he lost both. 2024 was basically his strongest performance across the board. He won more electoral votes (312) than he did in 2016 and finally secured that popular vote win he’d been chasing.
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One big reason? Turnout. It was high, but not "2020 high." About 64% of eligible voters showed up. What really changed was who stayed home. A lot of folks who voted for Biden in 2020 simply didn't turn out for Harris. Pew Research found that about 15% of Biden's previous voters sat this one out, while Trump kept 89% of his 2020 supporters active and voting.
Key Takeaways for the Future
Basically, the 2024 election proved that the "Blue Wall" is a lot shakier than people thought. If you’re trying to understand the impact of how many points did trump win by, don't just look at the 1.5%. Look at the fact that he improved his standing in 49 out of 50 states.
Even in California and New York, the margins shifted toward the GOP by 4 to 6 points. That doesn't mean those states are turning red tomorrow, but it does mean the "urban-rural divide" is getting a bit more complicated.
Next Steps for Your Research:
- Check out the official certified results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if you want the final, down-to-the-last-digit count.
- Look into the Exit Poll data from Edison Research to see exactly how specific counties in your state shifted compared to four years ago.
- Review the Cook Political Report for a breakdown of how "ticket-splitting" affected House and Senate races in the same districts where Trump won big.