If you’ve been watching the news lately, it feels like every other headline is about a "historic" or "massive" deportation operation. It’s loud. It’s chaotic. And honestly, it’s kinda confusing because the numbers being tossed around—1 million, 13 million, 600,000—rarely seem to match up.
So, how many people will Trump deport, really?
As we sit here in January 2026, the first year of the second Trump administration is officially in the books. We don't have to guess about "campaign promises" anymore; we have a year of hard data, court rulings, and actual ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) flight logs to look at. The reality is a strange mix of record-breaking detention surges and logistical brick walls that even a $170 billion budget can't always break through.
The Big Goal vs. The Ground Reality
During the 2024 campaign, the "target" was often cited as the entire undocumented population—roughly 11 to 14 million people. Once Tom Homan was appointed "Border Czar" and Kristi Noem took over at DHS (Department of Homeland Security), that rhetoric shifted toward a more "manageable" but still staggering goal: 1 million deportations per year.
But did they hit it in 2025? Not quite.
According to recent data from the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) and DHS’s own year-end reports, the administration claims to have deported about 622,000 people in 2025.
Now, there’s a bit of "creative accounting" happening here. Critics, including the Brookings Institution, argue the real number of forced removals is closer to 310,000. The administration gets to that higher 622,000 figure by including "voluntary departures" and people turned away at the border.
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Even if you take the lower number, it's still a significant jump. For perspective, during the last full year of the Biden administration (FY 2024), there were about 271,484 removals. Trump’s first year saw a roughly 7% to 15% increase in actual physical removals, depending on whose data you trust.
Where the 1.9 Million "Self-Deportations" Come From
You might have heard the White House mention that nearly 2 million people "self-deported" in 2025. This is the "attrition through enforcement" strategy that Stephen Miller has championed for years. Basically, the idea is to make life so difficult—through workplace raids and the threat of arrest—that people just leave on their own.
Whether that 1.9 million figure is accurate is highly debated. We do know that net migration was negative in 2025 for the first time in about fifty years. People are leaving, but it’s hard to tell if they’re going back to their home countries or just moving further "underground" into the shadows of American cities.
Who is actually being targeted?
Early on, the talk was all about "criminals and gang members." In March 2025, for instance, the administration used the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to deport about 250 alleged members of the Tren de Aragua gang to El Salvador.
But as the year progressed, the net widened. Fast.
- No Criminal Record: By November 2025, nearly 74% of people in ICE detention had no criminal convictions.
- Workplace Raids: ICE revived large-scale "audits" and raids at construction sites and meatpacking plants.
- TPS and Parolees: The administration stripped protections from roughly 1.5 million people, including Venezuelans, Haitians, and most recently, Somalis.
The Logistics Problem: Why 1 Million is Hard to Hit
If the government has the money—and they do, thanks to the "One Big Beautiful Bill" that gave ICE and Border Patrol $170 billion—why aren't they hitting the 1 million mark?
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It turns out, you can’t just snap your fingers and move a million people.
First, there’s the "Bed Space" issue. When Trump took office in January 2025, there were about 39,000 people in detention. By the end of the year, that surged to over 65,000. They want to get to 108,000 beds by the end of 2026, but cities like Kansas City are fighting back, passing moratoriums to block the construction of "mega-centers" or "warehouse" staging areas.
Second, there’s the "Air Lift" problem. To deport a million people, you need a massive fleet of planes. ICE flight operations increased by 129% last year, jumping to about 1,000 flights per month. But even at that rate, you're only moving a fraction of the target population.
Third, Diplomacy. Not every country wants to take people back. The U.S. had to strike a deal with Nayib Bukele in El Salvador to house some deportees in their "Terrorism Confinement Center" at a cost of $6 million a year because their home countries refused them.
The Cost to the Taxpayer
Honestly, the price tag is eye-watering. The American Immigration Council estimates that to actually find, detain, and deport 1 million people a year, it costs about $88 billion annually.
Most of that money isn't spent on the actual flight; it's spent on:
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- Arrests: Hiring 30,000+ new agents.
- Detention: Building and staffing hundreds of new facilities.
- Legal Processing: Paying for the judges and lawyers (though the administration has been pushing for "expedited removal" to skip the courtrooms entirely).
What to Expect in 2026
If 2025 was the "ramp up" year, 2026 is when the administration expects the "numbers to explode," according to Tom Homan. They have the funding now. The "sensitive locations" policy—which used to keep ICE away from schools and churches—is gone.
However, the legal battles are just getting started. While the Supreme Court has greenlit the revocation of status for groups like Venezuelans, they’ve been more hesitant about allowing the National Guard to be used for interior enforcement or allowing agents to enter homes without warrants—a tactic Attorney General Pam Bondi tried to authorize in early 2025.
Actionable Insights: What This Means for You
Whether you support these policies or oppose them, the "mass deportation" era is no longer a theory. It’s a functioning government machine with specific priorities.
- For Employers: If you work in construction, agriculture, or hospitality, expect increased scrutiny. The "I didn't know" defense is getting harder to use as I-9 audits become more frequent.
- For Mixed-Status Families: About 12 million U.S. citizens live in a household with at least one undocumented person. Knowing your rights—specifically regarding warrants and "know your rights" cards—remains the most practical step for many.
- For Communities: Keep an eye on local zoning boards. The federal government is actively looking for large industrial warehouses to convert into processing centers. As seen in Kansas City, local government is often the first line of resistance or cooperation.
The number of people Trump will deport depends less on a single "master plan" and more on the tug-of-war between record-breaking federal funding and the logistical reality of moving human beings across borders. We're looking at a year where removals will likely climb toward that 700,000 or 800,000 mark, even if the "one million" goal remains a bridge too far.
Next Steps:
If you want to track the actual number of removals in your specific state or city, you should monitor the monthly data releases from TRAC (Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse) at Syracuse University. They provide the most granular breakdown of ICE arrests and "Notice to Appear" filings, which is often more reliable than the broad estimates provided in White House press briefings.