The question isn't just a matter of curiosity anymore; for millions of families, it’s the most pressing concern in the country. Since Donald Trump returned to the White House in early 2025, the rhetoric surrounding immigration has shifted from campaign promises to aggressive federal action. You’ve probably heard various numbers thrown around—1 million, 11 million, maybe even 20 million. It’s a lot to process, and honestly, the math can get a bit dizzying.
Basically, the Trump administration has signaled an intent to target the entire unauthorized population in the United States. Depending on which estimate you look at—Pew Research recently pegged the number at 14 million as of late 2023—that is a staggering pool of people. But wanting to do something and actually having the planes, buses, and agents to do it are two very different things.
How Many People Does Trump Want to Deport? Breaking Down the Numbers
During the 2024 campaign, Trump frequently cited a goal of removing 15 to 20 million people. Now that we are into 2026, the official "stretch goal" from the White House remains at least 1 million removals per year. That would be a massive leap from historic norms. To put that in perspective, even during high-enforcement years under previous administrations, the system rarely topped 400,000 to 500,000 formal removals annually.
Here is the current state of play as of early 2026:
- The administration claimed that by December 2025, roughly 2.5 million people had "left" the country.
- However, that 2.5 million figure is a bit of a mix. It includes about 605,000 to 622,000 actual forced deportations.
- The rest—about 1.9 million—are what the government calls "self-deportations."
The Trump team is leaning heavily on this idea of self-deportation. They even launched a "CBP Home" app, which reportedly offers people a free flight and $1,000 to leave voluntarily. Critics and data analysts at places like the Migration Policy Institute have been skeptical of these self-deportation numbers, noting that the administration hasn't provided much hard evidence to back up the 1.9 million figure.
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The Target List: Who is Actually Being Picked Up?
Early on, the talk was all about "the worst of the worst"—criminals, gang members, and "bad hombres." But once the executive orders started flying in January 2025, the scope widened significantly. The administration basically scrapped the old "priority" system. Now, if you are in the country without papers, you are a priority. Period.
This has led to a 2,450% surge in the arrest of people with no criminal record. We are seeing more "at-large" arrests, where ICE agents pick people up at their homes, worksites, or even while they are showing up for routine immigration court hearings. It's a "dragnet" approach that aims to maximize the numbers, even if the individuals have lived here for decades.
The Massive Logistics of a 10-Million-Person Goal
You can’t just snap your fingers and move millions of people across a border. It’s a logistical nightmare that costs an absolute fortune. Some estimates from the American Immigration Council suggest that a full-scale operation to deport all 13-14 million unauthorized immigrants could cost over $900 billion over a decade.
Think about what that requires:
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- Housing: ICE detention capacity has already jumped from about 40,000 beds to over 66,000. They are building massive temporary camps to hold people while they wait for flights.
- Personnel: The government is trying to hire tens of thousands of new agents. They've even discussed using the military and the Insurrection Act to help with "apprehension."
- The Courts: There is a backlog of nearly 4 million cases in immigration court. To get around this, the administration is trying to expand "expedited removal," which lets them bypass judges entirely for certain groups.
- The "Big Beautiful Bill": Trump has pushed for $168 billion in new funding specifically for this "crushing" enforcement machinery.
The Economic Ripple Effect
It's not just about the cost of the planes. If the administration actually hits its goal of 1 million deportations a year, the economy is going to feel it. Undocumented workers make up about 5% of the U.S. workforce. In industries like construction, hospitality, and agriculture, that number is much higher.
Economists are warning that mass removals could shrink the GDP by anywhere from 1.2% to 7.4%. We’re talking about potential labor shortages that drive up the price of your groceries and your rent. There’s also the tax issue—undocumented immigrants paid nearly $100 billion in federal, state, and local taxes in 2022 alone. Losing that revenue is a big pill for the Treasury to swallow.
What Most People Get Wrong About the "Mass" in Mass Deportation
A lot of people assume "mass deportation" means a single, giant sweep. In reality, it looks more like a steady, high-pressure grind. The administration's strategy isn't just about catching everyone; it's about making life so difficult and scary that people choose to leave on their own.
By ending "Temporary Protected Status" (TPS) for hundreds of thousands of people from countries like Haiti or El Salvador, the administration is effectively "creating" more people who are eligible for deportation. They aren't just looking for people hiding in the shadows; they are targeting people who were previously here legally under "parole" programs.
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Real-World Impact and Limitations
Despite the aggressive goals, the administration has hit some walls. Local "sanctuary" jurisdictions still refuse to cooperate in many areas, and the legal battles over using the military for domestic policing are ongoing.
Furthermore, some countries simply won't take their citizens back. If a country refuses to accept a deportation flight, the U.S. is stuck holding that person in a detention center indefinitely, which is both legally questionable and incredibly expensive.
Moving Forward: Actionable Insights for the Concerned
If you or someone you know is navigating this landscape, "knowing the numbers" is only the first step. The situation is moving fast, and the rules change with almost every new executive order.
- Stay Informed on Legal Status: Programs like TPS and Humanitarian Parole are being systematically terminated or not renewed. Check the status of these programs monthly.
- Know Your Rights: Regardless of status, individuals in the U.S. have certain constitutional protections. Organizations like the ACLU and the American Immigration Council provide "Know Your Rights" cards that can be vital during an encounter with ICE.
- Document Everything: For those hoping to fight a removal case, having a paper trail of your time in the U.S., your tax payments, and your community ties is more important than ever.
- Consult Experts: Avoid "notarios" or unlicensed consultants. With the surge in enforcement, the risk of falling for a scam is high. Stick to reputable immigration attorneys or DOJ-accredited representatives.
The goal of 1 million deportations a year is the administration's North Star. Whether they actually reach it depends on the courts, the budget, and how many people are scared into "self-deporting" by the sheer scale of the operation.