The water came in the middle of the night. It wasn't a slow rise; it was a wall. On July 4, 2025, the Guadalupe River in the Texas Hill Country transformed from a scenic vacation spot into a violent, debris-filled monster. By the time the sun came up, families were frantically calling 911 from rooftops, and the state was facing one of its worst natural disasters in a generation.
Even now, months later in January 2026, the question of how many people are missing in Texas flood zones still haunts the community. Honestly, the numbers have been a moving target from the start. Chaos makes for bad math. When the first reports hit, the "missing" list in Kerr County alone topped 160 people. It felt like the region had just swallowed an entire town.
But a lot of those people weren't actually gone. They were just... elsewhere. They were at shelters without cell service or stuck on the "wrong" side of a washed-out bridge.
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The Current Count: Where Things Stand Today
Right now, the official count for the missing has dropped significantly from those terrifying July peaks. According to recent updates from the Kerr County Sheriff’s Office and the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS), the number of people still unaccounted for is down to two individuals, including an 8-year-old girl.
That sounds like progress, and it is. But for the families of those two people, "progress" isn't the word they’d use.
Why the numbers changed so much
- Double Counting: In the first 48 hours, a mother might call the police, a father might call the Red Cross, and a friend might post on Facebook. One person becomes three missing entries.
- Communication Blackouts: Cell towers in Hunt and Ingram went dark almost immediately. People were "missing" simply because they couldn't send a text.
- The "Mystic" Factor: At Camp Mystic, a century-old girls' camp, the confusion was total. Early texts between officials showed they weren't sure if 30 kids were missing or just stranded. Sadly, we now know 25 campers and two counselors perished there, but the initial "missing" list for the camp was much higher until survivors were accounted for.
Basically, search teams spent weeks "finding" people who were already safe. They had to cross-reference thousands of names against shelter rosters and hospital intakes. It was a massive, messy, manual data project conducted in 90-degree heat.
The Search Effort: Drones, Dogs, and Debris
You’ve probably seen the footage of the Black Hawks. The Texas National Guard and teams from as far away as Colorado and Mexico poured into the Hill Country. They weren't just looking for people; they were moving mountains of debris.
The Guadalupe River didn't just flood; it rearranged the landscape. It swept away cars, entire cabins, and thousands of cypress trees. Searchers like Jason Kester, a deputy fire chief who deployed with a K9 team, described it as a "difficult search climate." The dogs had to sniff through piles of mud and twisted metal that were ten feet high in some places.
The Grim Reality of Recovery
It’s tough to talk about, but search and rescue eventually becomes search and recovery. As of early 2026, the confirmed death toll across Texas from the July floods stands at 135 people. The majority of those losses—119 lives—happened in Kerr County.
The river peaked at over 35 feet in Kerrville. That's a staggering amount of water. It moved so fast that it caught many people in their sleep. Many victims were found miles downstream from where they were last seen. This is why the missing list stayed high for so long; the search area covered dozens of miles of rugged, debris-choked riverbank.
What Most People Get Wrong About Missing Person Lists
When you see a headline about how many people are missing in Texas flood events, there’s a natural tendency to assume they are all deceased.
But natural disaster lists are different from criminal missing person cases. Most people on a disaster list are found within 72 hours. The "long-term" missing are the ones who were likely swept into areas that are physically impossible to reach quickly. Think deep silt, tangled logjams, or submerged vehicles.
Recently released text messages between Kerr County leaders show just how much confusion there was behind the scenes. They were arguing over whether to focus on evacuating the living or searching for the missing. It’s easy to judge from a couch, but when the 911 calls are coming in every ten seconds and the roads are literally gone, there is no "perfect" response.
Lessons for the Next One
The 2025 flood was more severe than the "100-year" event FEMA planned for. It proved that our old maps are kind of useless now.
If you live in or travel through "Flash Flood Alley"—that stretch of Central Texas from San Antonio up through the Hill Country—you need to know that the warning systems failed last time. Many people never got the "Code Red" alert because they hadn't signed up for it or the towers were already down.
Actionable Steps for Texans:
- Sign up for local alerts: Don't wait for a viral post. Go to your county's emergency management site and register your phone number now.
- Get a NOAA Weather Radio: It sounds old school, but when the cell towers die, these things still work.
- Know your elevation: Don't just look at a flood map. Know how many feet you are above the nearest creek.
- If you think someone is missing: If you reported someone in 2025 who was later found, make sure you followed up with the Kerrville Police or DPS to take them off the list. That keeps resources focused on the two families still waiting for answers.
The search for the final missing victims continues, even as the region tries to rebuild. It's a slow, quiet process now—mostly specialists and volunteers walking the banks as the water levels stay low. We might not have a final answer for those last two families for a long time, but the effort hasn't stopped.
If you are looking for specific records or want to help with the ongoing recovery efforts, the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) remains the best point of contact for official volunteer coordination and victim resources. Check their local regional portals for the most current survivor assistance documents.