It's been a wild ride. If you’ve been watching the news lately, you probably feel like the world is geting more dangerous by the second. But honestly, the hard data tells a different story. For a long time, the question of how many murders per year in the united states was a source of pure anxiety. We saw a massive spike in 2020—the kind of jump that keeps criminologists up at night—and for a while, it didn't look like it was going to stop.
The good news? The tide has turned.
We are currently witnessing what many experts are calling a historic decline. In 2024, the FBI reported a staggering 14.9% drop in homicides compared to the year before. That isn't just a minor statistical "blip." It's one of the largest single-year decreases we've ever seen in modern American history. And based on early 2025 data, that downward trend is picking up speed.
Tracking the Numbers: How Many Murders Per Year in the United States?
If you want the raw numbers, the picture is getting clearer. In 2023, there were roughly 19,000 homicides across the country. By the end of 2024, that number dropped significantly. Jeff Asher, a leading crime data analyst and co-founder of AH Datalytics, has been tracking these shifts in real-time. He noted that by late 2024, the murder rate had fallen to about 5 per 100,000 people.
To put that in perspective, at the peak of the pandemic violence in 2020, that rate was 6.7.
Early reports from the first half of 2025 show that murders fell by another 17% to 20% in many major cities. It's almost weird to say, but we are approaching levels of safety that look a lot more like 2014—which was a historic low—than the "war zone" narratives often pushed on social media.
What happened in the big cities?
Urban centers are usually where the highest volumes occur, so they drive the national average. Here is how some specific spots fared in the latest 2024-2025 window:
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- Philadelphia: Once struggling with record highs, Philly saw a massive decline, with some estimates showing a drop of over 20% in 2024.
- Baltimore: This city managed one of the most incredible turnarounds, with homicides dropping nearly 30% in a single year.
- Chicago: Murders fell by about 28%, a huge relief for a city that is often the poster child for violent crime discussions.
- Birmingham: In a shocking twist, Birmingham reported a 49% reduction in murders through late 2025.
It’s not just a "blue city" or "red state" thing. The decline is happening in the Midwest, the South, and the Northeast. It's everywhere.
Why did the rates spike and then crash?
The "why" is always more complicated than the "how many." Most experts, including those at the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), point to a perfect storm that hit in 2020. You had the pandemic, which shattered social safety nets and kept kids out of school. You had a massive rupture in trust between police and communities after the murder of George Floyd. Plus, there was a record-breaking surge in gun sales.
Basically, the "social glue" that keeps society stable just... dissolved for a bit.
Now, that glue is drying. Programs that were paused during COVID-19 are back. Violence intervention groups—the people who actually walk the streets to mediate beefs before they turn into shootings—are getting funded again.
The nuance of the data
We have to be careful with the word "homicide." Sometimes you'll see people use "murder" and "homicide" interchangeably, but technically, the FBI tracks "murder and non-negligent manslaughter." This excludes things like self-defense or accidental killings.
Also, while the national average is down, some places are still struggling. Little Rock, Arkansas, and Virginia Beach saw increases in early 2025. It’s a reminder that crime is hyper-local. Just because the national average looks great doesn't mean every neighborhood feels that way.
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Understanding the "Clearance Rate" Problem
One thing people often overlook when asking about how many murders per year in the united states is how many of those cases actually get solved. This is known as the "clearance rate."
In the 1960s, the clearance rate for murder was over 90%. By 2021, it had plummeted to about 50%.
That’s a terrifying thought. It means half of the people who committed a murder were getting away with it. However, 2024 data shows this is finally starting to tick back up. The FBI reported a clearance rate of 61.4% recently. It’s not back to where it was in the "good old days," but it’s moving in the right direction. When more crimes are solved, it creates a deterrent. It sends a message that you can't just walk away.
The Role of Firearms
You can't talk about U.S. murder stats without talking about guns. Roughly 78% to 80% of all homicides in the U.S. involve a firearm. This is significantly higher than in other developed nations.
Interestingly, while the number of murders is dropping, the number of "aggravated assaults"—basically serious fights where someone gets badly hurt but doesn't die—is staying "stubbornly high," according to Jeff Asher. This suggests that people are still being violent, but perhaps medical technology or just plain luck is keeping the death count from being even higher.
Moving Forward: Actionable Insights
So, what do we do with this information?
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First, take the headlines with a grain of salt. If you're feeling scared, check the actual local police dashboard for your city. Often, the "vibe" of crime is much worse than the reality.
Second, support Community Violence Intervention (CVI) programs. These are the non-police initiatives that are actually moving the needle in cities like Richmond and Los Angeles. They focus on the tiny percentage of the population—often less than 0.5%—who are responsible for the vast majority of the violence.
Lastly, pay attention to local elections. District Attorneys and Police Chiefs have more impact on these numbers than any President ever will. Look for leaders who prioritize both accountability and the clearance of cold cases.
The drop we’re seeing in 2025 is a massive win for public health and safety. It shows that the 2020 spike wasn't a "new normal." It was a tragedy that we are finally, slowly, moving past.
Next steps for staying informed:
- Check your city’s "Real-Time Crime Index" if they provide one to see how your specific zip code is trending.
- Look up the "clearance rate" for your local police department to see how effectively they are closing cases.
- Follow data-driven analysts like AH Datalytics for monthly updates rather than waiting for the annual FBI reports, which often lag by a year or more.