If you’re looking for a single, clean number to answer how many missiles Russia has in 2026, I have to be honest: anybody giving you one static figure is probably making it up. The reality is a moving target. It’s a constant tug-of-war between a massive industrial machine running 24/7 and the sheer, staggering rate at which these weapons are being used on the battlefield.
As of early 2026, the best estimates from intelligence outfits and defense analysts suggest Russia is sitting on a stockpile of roughly 4,300 to 4,500 cruise missiles and somewhere in the neighborhood of 800 to 900 ballistic missiles.
But those numbers don't tell the whole story. You’ve got to look at the "burn rate." In late 2025, specifically October, we saw a massive spike where Moscow launched nearly 150 ballistic missiles in a single month. That was a record. It showed the world that despite years of sanctions intended to cripple their high-tech manufacturing, the Kremlin has figured out how to keep the assembly lines moving.
The Production Paradox: Why Sanctions Didn't Stop the Flow
There was this idea back in 2022 and 2023 that Russia would "run out" of precision missiles because they couldn't get Western microchips. Honestly, that hasn't happened. Instead, they’ve gotten really good at what analysts call "sanction-busting" or "parallel imports."
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A recent deep dive into wreckage found in Ukraine revealed that a single Kh-101 cruise missile—Russia’s premier long-range air-launched weapon—contains at least 53 types of foreign-made electronic components. We’re talking chips from companies like Intel, Texas Instruments, and STMicroelectronics. They aren't buying them directly from the factory, obviously. They’re getting them through third-party distributors in countries that haven't signed onto the embargoes.
Breaking Down the Inventory
To understand the scale, you have to split the "missile" category into a few buckets. Not all missiles are created equal.
- The Workhorses: The Kalibr (sea-launched) and the Kh-101 (air-launched) are the cruise missiles Russia uses most. These are the ones that fly like small, unmanned airplanes. Production for these has actually stabilized. By late 2025, Russia was reportedly churning out about 40 to 50 of these a month.
- The "Unstoppables": Then you have the Iskander-M and the Kinzhal. These are ballistic or "hypersonic" (though that term gets debated a lot by engineers). They are much harder to shoot down. The Kinzhal is basically an Iskander strapped to a fighter jet. Production of these is slower—maybe a dozen or so a month—but they are the "silver bullets" in the arsenal.
- The New Kid: In late 2024 and throughout 2025, we started hearing about the Oreshnik. It’s an intermediate-range ballistic missile that can carry multiple warheads. It’s a scary piece of hardware designed more for psychological impact and strategic signaling than day-to-day tactical use.
The Nuclear Elephant in the Room
We can't talk about how many missiles Russia has without mentioning the big stuff. The strategic nukes.
Right now, in early 2026, we are at a bit of a terrifying crossroads. The New START Treaty, which was the last major agreement limiting how many long-range nuclear missiles the U.S. and Russia could have, is expiring on February 4, 2026.
Under the treaty limits, Russia was capped at:
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- 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine missiles, and heavy bombers.
- 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads.
But here is the catch—the treaty only limits deployed weapons. It doesn't say anything about the thousands of warheads and missiles sitting in warehouses or "tactical" nukes meant for the battlefield. Some experts, like those at the National Institute for Public Policy, have warned that Russia could technically ramp up to 8,000 warheads by the end of this year if the treaty isn't replaced or extended.
Drones: The New "Poor Man’s Missile"
If you’re wondering why the missile counts matter less than they used to, it’s because of the Shahed (or Geran-2, as Russia calls them).
By 2025, Russia’s production of these "kamikaze" drones hit a plateau of about 5,000 units per month. That is a staggering number. They use these cheap drones to swarm air defenses. Basically, they force the opponent to use a $2 million Patriot missile to shoot down a $20,000 plastic drone. Once the defense is busy or out of ammo, that's when they send in the high-end cruise missiles.
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It’s a math problem. A brutal, industrial math problem.
What This Means for the Near Future
So, what’s the takeaway? Russia isn't running out of missiles, but they are increasingly dependent on their monthly production cycles.
We’ve seen a shift in how they launch. In 2024, they used to do these massive, coordinated strikes where everything hit at once. By late 2025 and now in 2026, the strikes have become more "fragmented." They launch what they have, as soon as it comes off the factory floor. It’s a "just-in-time" delivery system for war.
Actionable Insights for Following the Situation:
- Watch the Production Reports: Keep an eye on reports from the IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies) and CSIS. They track satellite imagery of Russian factories (like the one in Alabuga). If those buildings expand, the missile count goes up.
- The "New START" Deadline: Watch the news in early February 2026. If the treaty expires without a replacement, expect Russia to start "up-loading" their missiles—adding more warheads to existing rockets.
- Component Tracking: Organizations like Conflict Armament Research are the best at identifying where the tech inside these missiles is coming from. Their reports often lead to new sanctions that actually work, albeit slowly.
The "how many" question is important, but the "how fast can they build them" question is what actually determines the course of the next few months. Right now, the Russian military-industrial complex is cooling off slightly from its 2024 peak, but it’s still far from stalled.