If you’re staring out the window wondering if you need to set your alarm twenty minutes early, you aren't alone. It’s that time of year where every grey cloud feels like a personal threat to your morning drive. So, how many inches of snow are we getting tonight, really?
The short answer: it depends entirely on which side of the "clipper" you're sitting on.
Right now, as we move through January 15, 2026, a fast-moving system is sliding across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. It’s not a monster blizzard, but it’s definitely enough to make the roads "kinda" terrible. We aren't looking at a feet-of-snow situation for most major metros, but for spots like Milwaukee, Detroit, and the Finger Lakes, the shovels are coming out.
The Regional Breakdown: Who’s Getting Hit?
Honestly, the hardest part of tonight's forecast is the "flash freeze" potential.
In places like Pittsburgh and parts of Western Pennsylvania, the transition is the story. You might see rain or a nasty mix early on, but once that cold front slams through, everything turns to ice and then snow. Meteorologists at the KDKA Weather Center are tracking a timeline where the shift happens right around mid-evening.
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- Milwaukee & SE Wisconsin: Expect about 1.5 inches. It starts around 9 P.M. and keeps going through the night. The southwest winds are the real problem here—they’ll be gusting up to 25 mph, so visibility is going to be garbage.
- Metro Detroit: You’ve already seen some flakes, but another 1 to 2 inches is likely on top of what’s already there. If you're up near the "Thumb" or Lake Huron, lake-effect could push you toward 6 inches.
- The Finger Lakes & Upstate NY: This is the jackpot zone for tonight. We’re looking at a complex rain-to-snow shift. By sunrise Friday, many spots will have 3 to 6 inches on the ground.
- Chicago Area: It's mostly a "clipper" story here. You’re looking at light accumulations—maybe an inch or less—but the wind and the leftover slick spots from yesterday's squalls are the bigger headache.
Why the Forecast Keeps Changing
Weather models are basically just high-speed guessing machines.
One minute the European model shows a dry slot, and the next, the GFS (the American model) predicts a heavy band of lake-effect snow sitting right over your driveway. This happens because "clippers" are notoriously moisture-starved. They move fast. If they pick up just a little extra juice from the Great Lakes, those "1 inch" forecasts quickly turn into 4 inches before you've even finished your coffee.
Also, ground temperature is a huge factor tonight.
Since it was slightly milder earlier in the week, the pavement isn't deep-frozen yet. That means the first half-inch of snow might just melt and then turn into a sheet of black ice as temperatures crater into the teens overnight. That’s way more dangerous than five inches of fluffy powder.
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Dealing With the "Lake Effect" Wildcard
If you live downwind of Lake Michigan or Lake Erie, you know the drill.
The National Weather Service is watching for "enhanced" totals. Basically, cold air moves over the relatively warmer water, picks up moisture, and dumps it in narrow, intense bands. You could have two inches in your front yard, while your cousin three miles away has a foot. It’s localized, it’s frustrating, and it’s why your local weatherman looks so stressed out on the 10 o'clock news.
Safety Check: What You Actually Need to Do
- Check the "Flash Freeze": If it’s raining when you go to bed and 20 degrees when you wake up, the salt trucks probably haven't hit everything yet.
- Clear the Tailpipe: If you’re digging out your car, make sure the exhaust is clear. It sounds like a "mom" tip, but carbon monoxide is no joke.
- Wiper Blades Up: Do it. It saves you from tearing the rubber when they're frozen to the windshield at 6 A.M.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
Don't put the boots away just yet.
While tonight’s accumulation is the immediate concern, there’s another disturbance rolling through on Friday afternoon and Saturday. It looks like "nuisance snow"—the kind that doesn't close schools but makes the grocery store parking lot a nightmare.
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Most of the Eastern U.S. is stuck in this chilly, active pattern for at least another week. We’re seeing a classic La Niña influence here, where the storm track stays active right across the northern tier of states.
If you're in the path of tonight's snow, give yourself double the travel time tomorrow morning. Even a "dusting" can be lethal on untreated overpasses. Keep an eye on the radar, but more importantly, keep an eye on the thermometer. When it drops below 25°F, salt starts losing its magic, and those roads get real slick, real fast.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check your local NWS office (National Weather Service) for "Snow Squall Warnings" which can trigger emergency alerts on your phone.
- Top off your windshield wiper fluid tonight; you'll use half a gallon just trying to see through the salt spray tomorrow.
- Download a radar app like RadarScope or Windy to see exactly when the back edge of the snow will clear your area before you head out.