You’ve seen the black and white smoke pouring from that tiny chimney above the Sistine Chapel. It’s one of the most iconic images in the world. But honestly, most people watching from St. Peter’s Square have no clue what’s actually happening behind those locked doors. They think it’s just a bunch of guys in red hats voting until someone wins. While that’s basically true, the math behind it is way more intense than a standard election.
If you’re wondering exactly how many ballots to elect pope, the answer isn't a fixed number. It’s a process. It can take one ballot, or it can take dozens. In fact, if things go sideways, it could technically take hundreds, though the Vatican has some pretty clever "break glass in case of emergency" rules to make sure we don't end up with another three-year-long vacancy like they had in the 13th century.
The Magic Number: Why Two-Thirds Matters
The fundamental rule for any modern conclave is the two-thirds majority. Since the 12th century, the Church has been obsessed with consensus. They don't want a "red" pope or a "blue" pope; they want a leader that almost everyone can get behind.
Currently, there’s a cap of 120 cardinal electors—those are the guys under 80 years old. If all 120 are present, a candidate needs exactly 80 votes to win. That’s a high bar. It’s not just a simple majority of 50% plus one. You need a massive chunk of the room to agree.
If there are 115 cardinals (the number present when Pope Francis was elected), the winner needs 77 votes. You take the total number of electors, multiply by two, divide by three, and round up if there’s a fraction. Simple enough, right? Sorta.
The Daily Grind of Voting
A conclave doesn't just run 24/7 until they’re done. It’s very structured. On the first day—usually in the afternoon—there is only one ballot. If that fails (and it almost always does), the smoke is black.
From the second day onward, the pace picks up:
✨ Don't miss: Ukraine War Map May 2025: Why the Frontlines Aren't Moving Like You Think
- Two ballots in the morning
- Two ballots in the afternoon
That is four chances a day to find a pope. If a vote is inconclusive, the ballots are burned. If the first vote of a session doesn't work, they usually wait and burn those papers together with the second vote's ballots. That’s why you generally see smoke only twice a day, around noon and 7:00 PM Rome time.
What Happens When They Get Stuck?
Sometimes, the cardinals just can't agree. They’re human, after all. They have different visions for the Church, different languages, and different favorite candidates. If they go three days without electing anyone, the rules (specifically the Universi Dominici Gregis) dictate a mandatory "timeout."
They stop voting for a day. No ballots. Just prayer, informal chatting, and probably a lot of coffee. They need to figure out where the deadlock is.
After that break, they go through cycles of seven ballots. Seven votes, then a break. Seven more, then a break. Another seven, then a break. If they’ve gone through roughly 33 or 34 ballots—depending on whether they voted on that very first afternoon—and they still don’t have a pope, the rules change.
The Benedict XVI Twist
This is where it gets interesting. Pope John Paul II actually changed the rules in 1996 to allow for a simple majority (50% + 1) if the cardinals were stuck after those 33ish ballots. It was a radical move. But Pope Benedict XVI looked at that and thought, "Wait, this could lead to a really divided Church."
In 2007, Benedict changed it back. He decided that even if they are hopelessly stuck, they always need a two-thirds majority. However, to speed things up, after the 33rd failed ballot, the cardinals can vote to move to a runoff. They take the two guys who got the most votes in the previous round and force everyone to choose between them. Even in that runoff, the winner still needs two-thirds of the vote to become the Bishop of Rome. And those two front-runners? They aren't allowed to vote for themselves in the runoff.
🔗 Read more: Percentage of Women That Voted for Trump: What Really Happened
How Long Does It Actually Take?
History is a wild ride when it comes to ballot counts. If you think a three-day conclave is long, you’ve got to look back at the 1200s.
After the death of Pope Clement IV in 1268, the cardinals spent nearly three years arguing in the town of Viterbo. The locals got so fed up that they literally locked the cardinals in, tore the roof off the building to let the rain in, and put them on a diet of bread and water. That finally got them to elect Gregory X. That’s actually where we get the word "conclave"—it means "with a key" (cum clave).
Modern conclaves are lightning-fast by comparison:
- Pope Francis (2013): Elected on the 5th ballot (Day 2).
- Pope Benedict XVI (2005): Elected on the 4th ballot (Day 2).
- Pope John Paul II (1978): Elected on the 8th ballot (Day 3).
- Pope John Paul I (1978): Elected on the 4th ballot (Day 1—very rare!).
- Pope Pius XII (1939): Elected on the 3rd ballot. He was a huge favorite.
The trend is clear. In the modern age, with 24-hour news cycles and global pressure, the cardinals don't like to linger. They usually find their person within 2 to 5 days. If a conclave goes past the first week, people start whispering about deep divisions and "rebel" factions.
The Secret Ballot Process: How a Vote Actually Works
It’s not a digital screen or a "raise your hand" situation. Each cardinal gets a rectangular piece of paper that says Eligo in summum pontificem (I elect as supreme pontiff) at the top.
They are supposed to disguise their handwriting. Seriously. The rules tell them to write in a way that no one can recognize who wrote it. They fold the paper twice, walk up to the altar under Michelangelo’s "Last Judgment," and hold the ballot up for everyone to see.
💡 You might also like: What Category Was Harvey? The Surprising Truth Behind the Number
Then they say a specific oath: "I call as my witness Christ the Lord who will be my judge, that my vote is given to the one who before God I think should be elected." They drop it onto a plate (a paten) and slide it into the urn (a chalice).
Three "scrutineers" then count the votes. They pierce each ballot with a needle through the word Eligo and string them together on a thread. This makes sure no votes go missing or get added. Only after the thread is tied are the votes tallied and the results announced to the room.
Why 33 Ballots is the "Danger Zone"
If you’re tracking the news during the next conclave, keep that number 33 in your head. Up until that point, the cardinals can keep throwing new names into the ring. A "dark horse" candidate can suddenly gain momentum on the 15th or 20th ballot.
But once you hit the 33-ballot mark, the "runoff" rule looms. The field narrows. The flexibility vanishes. It becomes a head-to-head battle. Most cardinals want to avoid this because it feels less like a spiritual consensus and more like a political cage match.
Actionable Insights for the Next Conclave
Watching a papal election is a lot more fun when you know the "scorecard." Here is how to track it like a pro:
- Watch the first day's smoke: It’s almost always black. Don't get your hopes up. It’s basically a "test" vote to see who the front-runners are.
- Do the math: Find out how many cardinals are voting. Divide by three, multiply by two, and that's your target number.
- The 48-hour rule: If there’s no pope by the end of the second full day of voting (roughly 5 ballots total), it means there is no clear favorite. That’s when the "compromise" candidates start getting phone calls during the dinner break.
- The "Great Pause": If the news reports a day of prayer and no voting, check the calendar. That’s the mandatory break after three days of failure. If they come back from that break and still don't have a winner after a few more days, start looking at the top two candidates, because a runoff is coming.
The process is designed to be slow, deliberate, and a little bit frustrating. But in a world that moves at the speed of a TikTok scroll, there’s something kind of cool about 120 people being locked in a room and forced to talk to each other until they agree. Even if it takes dozens of ballots to get there.