When the bells of St. Peter’s Basilica start tolling and that tiny chimney on the Sistine Chapel starts coughing out black smoke, the world stops. It’s a weird, ancient, and honestly stressful spectacle.
How long is this going to take?
Usually, not as long as you might think. But if history has taught us anything, it’s that when you lock 120-ish elderly men in a room to make a decision that affects 1.4 billion people, things can get unpredictable.
The Quick Answer: Modern Efficiency vs. Medieval Marathons
If we’re looking at the last century, the short answer is two to five days. That’s the sweet spot.
Take Pope Francis in 2013. He was elected on the fifth ballot, just two days into the conclave. Benedict XVI? Even faster. He was done in about 24 hours back in 2005. It seems like the modern Church has a "let's get down to business" vibe that didn't exist in the middle ages.
But "modern" is a relative term in the Vatican.
👉 See also: Popes After John Paul II: What Most People Get Wrong About the Modern Vatican
Technically, there is no ticking clock. No deadline. They stay until they pick someone.
Why it used to take forever
Way back in 1268, the cardinals couldn't agree on a successor to Pope Clement IV. They argued. They politicked. They basically just sat around.
The locals in Viterbo eventually lost their minds. They were tired of paying for the cardinals' housing and food. So, they did what any rational, frustrated mob would do: they locked the doors from the outside and tore the roof off the building.
They literally exposed the cardinals to the rain and wind to make them hurry up. Even then, it still took nearly three years (1,006 days, to be exact) to get Pope Gregory X.
Thankfully, the roof-tearing tradition has died out.
How Long Will It Take to Elect a New Pope in 2026?
If a vacancy happened tomorrow, the timeline is actually pretty rigid before the voting even begins. You’ve got the Novemdiales, which is the nine days of mourning and funeral rites.
The actual election—the conclave—must start between 15 and 20 days after the papacy becomes vacant. This gives cardinals from places like the Philippines or Brazil time to pack their bags and get to Rome.
Once they’re in, the schedule looks like this:
- Day 1: One afternoon vote. It’s usually a feeling-out process. If no one gets 2/3rds, we see black smoke.
- Days 2-4: Four votes a day. Two in the morning, two in the afternoon.
- The Pause: If they haven’t reached a decision after three days of voting, they take a break. No voting for one day. Just prayer and probably some very intense "casual" conversations over espresso.
The 2/3rds Rule
A candidate needs a two-thirds majority to win. This is a big deal. In a fractured world, getting 66% of any group to agree on one leader is a massive hurdle.
Back in the day, John Paul II changed the rules to allow for a simple majority (50% + 1) if they were deadlocked for a long time. But Benedict XVI changed it back. He wanted to make sure the new Pope had broad support. So now, it's 2/3rds or bust.
What Actually Happens Behind the Locked Doors?
The word "conclave" comes from the Latin cum clave, meaning "with a key." They are literally locked in.
They stay in the Domus Sanctae Marthae, which is basically a fancy Vatican hotel, but they aren't allowed to talk to anyone on the outside. No phones. No newspapers. No Twitter. The Sistine Chapel is even swept for bugs (the electronic kind, though maybe the other kind too, it’s an old building).
If a cardinal is caught with a cell phone? Automatic excommunication.
Is the food really that bad?
There’s a persistent rumor that the food gets progressively worse the longer they take. It's a fun idea—serving them cold mush until they pick a Pope—but it’s not really true anymore.
However, they are definitely isolated. That psychological pressure of being cut off from the world is usually enough to move things along. Most cardinals have jobs to get back to in their home dioceses. They aren't looking for a three-month vacation in a room with 119 other guys.
Factors That Could Slow Things Down
Sometimes, the "how long" part gets complicated. If there isn't a clear front-runner (a papabile), the voting can drag.
- Geopolitical Rifts: If the "Global South" cardinals want a Pope from Africa or Asia, but the European bloc wants to keep it "traditional," you get a stalemate.
- Ideological Clashes: Conservative vs. Liberal. It’s a classic battle. If neither side can get to that 2/3rds mark, they have to start looking for a "compromise candidate"—someone nobody hates, but maybe nobody was originally rooting for.
- The "Stranger" Factor: Many cardinals today don't actually know each other that well. Pope Francis has appointed cardinals from tiny islands and remote corners of the world. They need time just to figure out who is who.
Historical Timeline: A Quick Glance at Recent Conclaves
| Pope | Year | Duration | Ballots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pius XII | 1939 | 1 day | 3 |
| John XXIII | 1958 | 3 days | 11 |
| Paul VI | 1963 | 2 days | 6 |
| John Paul I | 1978 | 1 day | 4 |
| John Paul II | 1978 | 2 days | 8 |
| Benedict XVI | 2005 | 2 days | 4 |
| Francis | 2013 | 2 days | 5 |
As you can see, the trend is toward speed. The days of months-long vacancies are likely over, simply because the world moves too fast now. A leaderless Church for sixty days would be a PR nightmare in the age of 24-hour news.
Actionable Insights: What to Watch For
If you’re watching the chimney and wondering if you should go to lunch or stay glued to the TV, keep these things in mind:
- The Second Day is Key: Most modern elections wrap up by the afternoon of day two or the morning of day three. If we hit day four, it means there’s a serious disagreement happening.
- The Smoke Schedule: Smoke usually goes up around 11:30 AM and 5:30 PM (Rome time). If you see white smoke at an odd time, it means the election happened on the first ballot of a session.
- Follow the "Vaticanisti": Journalists like John Allen Jr. or the team at The Pillar usually have a good pulse on the "camps" within the college. They can’t tell you who will win, but they can tell you why it’s taking so long.
Basically, expect a result within 72 hours of the doors closing. If it goes longer than a week, start looking for news of a major deadlock, because that’s when history starts getting interesting again.
To stay updated on current Vatican procedures, you can monitor the official Vatican Press Office for the latest "Universi Dominici Gregis" updates, which is the actual rulebook the cardinals have to follow.