If you’ve been doomscrolling through headlines lately, you’re probably seeing two very different versions of reality. One says Ukraine is collapsing; the other says Russia is bleeding out. Honestly? Neither is quite right. It is January 2026, and the "how is the ukraine war going" question doesn’t have a simple one-sentence answer anymore.
The front lines are currently a mess of frozen mud, high-tech drone swarms, and a terrifyingly high body count. We aren’t looking at the sweeping tank maneuvers of 2022. Instead, it’s a brutal, grinding inch-by-inch fight that feels more like 1916 than 2026, just with better cameras.
Russia is pushing. Hard. But they are paying a price that would break almost any other country on the planet.
The State of the Frontline in 2026
Right now, Russia holds about 20% of Ukrainian territory, which is roughly the size of Pennsylvania. If you look at the maps from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the changes over the last few months look tiny—we’re talking about 79 square miles gained by Russia in the last month. To put that in perspective, that's barely more than the size of Washington, D.C.
But don't let the slow pace fool you. The pressure is immense.
In the Donbas, Russian forces are bearing down on the "fortress belt"—cities like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. These are the big prizes. If they fall, the entire region is basically gone. Further south, in Zaporizhzhia, Russian troops are creeping toward the provincial capital, threatening villages just 7 kilometers from the city limits.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has been forced into a "trade space for time" strategy. They’ve pulled back from spots like Myrnohrad and the Kleban-Bykske Reservoir to simplify their lines. It’s a smart move, but a painful one. They’ve built what experts call a "massive fortification system" that’s 200 meters deep in some places. It's a literal belt of concrete and mines designed to turn every Russian advance into a "controlled kill zone."
The Brutal Math of Attrition
Numbers in this war are always fuzzy, but the latest estimates are staggering. Former CIA Director William Burns recently noted that Russian casualties have likely topped 1.1 million killed or wounded. Ukraine’s losses are estimated at around 400,000.
Why does Russia keep going? Because the Kremlin has put the entire economy on a war footing. They are spending nearly 40% of their national budget on the military. They’ve even started importing laborers from India to keep their factories running because so many Russian men are either at the front or have fled the country.
- Drones are the new king: In December 2025 alone, Russia launched over 5,600 drones. That’s triple what they did a year ago.
- Energy as a weapon: It is -15°C (5°F) in Kyiv right now. Russia is systematically hitting the power grid, leaving hundreds of thousands of families without heat.
- The "Shadow War": Ukraine is hitting back by taking out Russian oil refineries. They’ve managed to knock nearly 40% of Russia's refining capacity offline at various points, though the Kremlin is getting better at patching things up quickly.
The "Trump Factor" and the Diplomatic Chaos
This is where things get really complicated. Since Donald Trump returned to the White House, the U.S. approach has done a complete 180. The massive multi-billion dollar aid packages of the Biden era are gone, replaced by a much smaller $400 million fund for 2026.
The White House is pushing a "28-point peace plan" that basically asks Ukraine to:
- Give up on NATO for now.
- Accept Russian control over Crimea and the Donbas.
- Hold elections within 100 days.
President Zelenskyy recently said that 90% of a deal is agreed upon, but that last 10%—the territory—is the wall no one can climb over. Ukrainians aren't ready to just hand over their land, especially with 72% of the population saying they'd only support a freeze if they got ironclad security guarantees.
Europe is trying to step into the gap left by the U.S., proposing a €90 billion loan for 2026-2027. But there’s a catch: they want Ukraine to spend that money on European weapons. France is all for it; Germany thinks it’s too restrictive. It’s a mess.
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception is that the war is a "stalemate." A stalemate implies nothing is happening. In reality, this is a high-intensity war of resources.
Russia is betting they can outlast the West's patience. They think that by 2027, the EU will be too tired and the U.S. will have moved on to other things. Ukraine is betting that their new "fortress belt" and their domestic drone production (like the new FP-5 Flamingo missiles) can make the cost of every Russian inch so high that the Russian economy eventually snaps.
Honestly, both sides are exhausted. But neither side is ready to quit.
Actionable Insights for Following the Conflict
If you want to stay truly informed about how the ukraine war is going without getting lost in the propaganda, here is what you should actually be watching:
- Watch the "Fortress Belt": If Russian forces break through the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk line, it’s a sign that Ukrainian defenses are truly failing. Until then, territorial gains of a few miles here and there are mostly noise.
- Monitor the Energy Grid: The success of Ukraine's winter depends on whether they can keep the lights on. Watch the interception rates of Russian drone strikes; if they stay above 80%, Kyiv can likely weather the cold.
- Track European "Strategic Autonomy": Watch if the EU actually delivers the €90 billion loan. If that money doesn't flow by the second quarter of 2026, Ukraine will face a catastrophic ammo shortage.
- Follow OSINT Sources: Move away from mainstream news and look at "Open Source Intelligence" groups like DeepState UA or the Institute for the Study of War. They provide the most granular, evidence-based updates on troop movements.
The war has moved into a "forever war" phase. It’s no longer about who has the best tanks, but who has the most shells, the most drones, and the most patience.
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Stay grounded in the data. The next six months of winter and early spring will likely decide if we see a forced ceasefire or another year of this brutal attrition. Keep an eye on the Zaporizhzhia front; that’s where the next major Russian push is likely to concentrate as they try to break the southern deadlock.