Right now, if you look at a map of Ukraine, it hasn't moved much in months. It's frustrating. It's bloody. Basically, we are looking at a conflict that has officially outlasted the Soviet Union's involvement in World War II, a fact that's kind of a psychological gut-punch for the Kremlin’s "Special Military Operation" narrative.
So, how is the russia ukraine war going today? Honestly, it’s a weird, exhausting mix of 1914-style trench misery and 2026-style sci-fi horror.
The Frontline Reality: Gains Measured in Yards
Russia is currently occupying about 18% to 20% of Ukraine. That’s roughly the size of Pennsylvania. But don't let the big numbers fool you into thinking Moscow is romping across the countryside. Over the last month, Russian forces gained maybe 74 square miles. To put that in perspective, they are trading thousands of lives for patches of dirt the size of a small airport.
The "meatgrinder" isn't just a grim nickname; it's the actual strategy. In places like Pokrovsk and Kupiansk, the attrition is staggering. British military intelligence and various analysts, including those at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), estimate Russian casualties—killed and wounded—have likely crossed the 1.1 million mark. That is a hard number to wrap your head around.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is playing a "dispersed" game. They’ve moved away from big, vulnerable bases and toward hidden, flexible defensive networks. They are dug in deep. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine's commander-in-chief, has been vocal about how these "engineering obstacles" are the only reason they can hold off a Russian force that simply has more of everything.
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The Oreshnik and the New Escalation
Just a few days ago, on January 9, 2026, Russia launched 242 drones and 36 missiles in a single night. But the real headline was the "Oreshnik." It’s a ballistic missile that Russia fired at Lviv, near the Polish border.
The UN Security Council had an emergency meeting about it on Monday. Why? Because the Oreshnik is nuclear-capable. Most analysts, like those at the Atlantic Council, think these strikes are mostly political theater—using dummy warheads to scare the West—but it shows how thin the "red lines" are getting.
The Diplomatic Chessboard: Trump, Macron, and the "Coalition"
The vibe in early 2026 is shifted. It’s no longer just "wait and see." There is a massive scramble behind the scenes.
- The US Factor: President Trump’s envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, have been meeting with both sides. Trump has been pushing for a ceasefire that might freeze the lines where they are.
- The European Pivot: France and the UK aren't waiting for Washington. They recently signed a "declaration of intent" to actually deploy troops to Ukraine if a peace deal is reached, specifically to monitor the ceasefire.
- The Money: The EU just approved a €90 billion (roughly $105 billion) loan. It's a lifeline because, let's face it, the Ukrainian economy is under immense strain with millions displaced.
Kyiv is also seeing a massive internal shakeup. Kyrylo Budanov, the former spy chief known for bold sabotage operations, has moved into a pivotal role as Chief of Staff. It signals that Ukraine isn't just planning to sit in trenches; they are looking to make life miserable inside Russia's borders.
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The Energy War
Ukraine is hitting back where it hurts: the wallet. Drone strikes have repeatedly targeted Russian oil refineries. Some reports suggested nearly 40% of Russia's refining capacity was knocked offline at various points in late 2025.
However, the Kremlin is resilient. They’ve rewired their economy. They’ve dropped oil's share of state revenue from 50% to 25%, filling the gap with higher taxes on their own people. It’s a "war footing" economy that can probably last another two or three years before a total fiscal crunch hits, according to experts at RUSI.
What Most People Get Wrong
There's a common idea that one side is "winning" or "losing" in a traditional sense. It's not that simple.
Russia has the numbers, but they are literally using horses for logistics in some sectors because they've lost so many vehicles. Ukraine has the tech and the precision, but they are running out of people. It’s a stalemate where both sides are hoping the other’s political will breaks first.
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Most Ukrainians (about 72%, according to recent polls) would approve of a peace plan that freezes the front lines—if they get solid security guarantees from the West. They don't want a "pause" that just lets Putin reload for 2028.
Actionable Insights for the Near Future
If you're trying to track where this goes next, keep your eyes on these three specific indicators:
- The "Spring Offensive" 2026: Watch for whether Russia tries one last massive push before the summer heat. If they suffer massive casualties without taking a major city like Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia, the domestic pressure on Putin might finally reach a breaking point.
- The "Coalition of the Willing": If British or French boots actually touch Ukrainian soil for "monitoring," the nature of the war changes from a local conflict to a direct NATO-adjacent confrontation.
- Oil Prices: If global oil prices collapse or secondary sanctions actually start stopping China and India from buying Russian energy, the Kremlin’s "war chest" will empty much faster than their generals expect.
The war isn't "ending" today, but the parameters for how it could end are finally being drawn in the dirt. It’s a race between European security guarantees and Russian economic endurance.