The world watches a chimney. That’s basically what it comes down to every few decades. You’ve seen the footage of St. Peter’s Square—thousands of people standing in the rain, necks craned toward a small copper pipe, waiting for a puff of smoke. It feels medieval because it is. When people ask how is a Pope elected, they’re usually looking for a simple answer, but the reality is a mix of ancient tradition, intense secrecy, and some surprisingly modern logistical headaches. It isn't just a vote; it’s a "conclave," a word that literally means "with a key." They lock them in. They actually lock the doors.
The Moment a Papacy Ends
Before we even get to the voting, something has to happen to the current guy. Usually, he dies. Sometimes, like with Benedict XVI in 2013, he resigns, which absolutely threw the Vatican into a loop because they hadn't dealt with a living ex-pope in centuries.
Once the Pope is declared dead—traditionally confirmed by the Camerlengo (the Chamberlain) calling the Pope’s baptismal name three times—the "Sede Vacante" begins. The seat is vacant. The Fisherman’s Ring is destroyed. This isn't just symbolic; it’s a security measure to prevent anyone from backdating documents or forging the papal seal while the church is leaderless. It’s a bit like shredding the hard drive of a CEO the second he walks out the door.
Gathering the College of Cardinals
So, who actually picks the new leader? It’s not the whole church. It’s a specific group called the College of Cardinals. But here is the kicker: not all of them get a vote.
Only those under the age of 80 can enter the Sistine Chapel to cast a ballot. This rule was set by Paul VI and solidified by John Paul II to keep the voting body relatively "young," though in the Catholic Church, 78 is considered a sprightly age. Right now, there are usually around 120 "cardinal electors." They fly in from everywhere—Manila, Nairobi, Chicago, Rio. They stay in a place called the Domus Sanctae Marthae, which is basically a fancy Vatican hotel, but during the conclave, it’s a fortress. No phones. No Wi-Fi. No newspapers. If a cardinal is caught tweeting from the Sistine Chapel, he’s looking at immediate excommunication. They take the "no outside influence" thing very seriously.
Inside the Sistine Chapel: How is a Pope Elected?
The actual process is a grind. It’s held inside the Sistine Chapel, under Michelangelo’s "Last Judgment." Talk about pressure.
The cardinals take an oath of secrecy. Then, the Master of Papal Liturgical Celebrations shouts "Extra omnes!" which means "everyone out." Only the electors and a few permitted staff remain. The doors are locked.
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The voting itself is a three-stage process: pre-scrutiny, scrutiny, and post-scrutiny.
Each cardinal writes a name on a rectangular piece of paper disguised to look like a ballot, but they try to disguise their handwriting. You don't want the guy next to you knowing you voted for him—or didn't. They walk up to the altar one by one, hold the ballot up, and swear they are voting for the person they think "before God" should be elected.
The Math of the Holy Spirit
To win, a candidate needs a two-thirds majority. If they do four votes a day (two in the morning, two in the afternoon) and no one hits that number for three days, they take a break for prayer and some "informal discussion." In other words, they lobby.
It’s easy to think of this as a political convention, and in many ways, it is. You have "blocs." You have the reformers and the traditionalists. But unlike a secular election, there are no official candidates. You can’t run a campaign. You can’t buy TV ads. In fact, if you’re seen campaigning too hard, it’s usually the "kiss of death" for your chances. There’s an old Roman saying: "He who enters the conclave a Pope, leaves it a Cardinal."
The Smoke Signals
This is the part everyone loves. After each session, the ballots are burned.
If no one is elected, they add a chemical compound (it used to be wet straw, but that was too unreliable) to make the smoke black. That’s the signal to the world: "Keep waiting."
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When someone finally gets two-thirds of the vote, the ballots are burned alone, creating white smoke. At the same time, the big bells of St. Peter’s start ringing. This is actually a newer addition because, in the past, the white smoke sometimes looked a bit grey, and people got confused. The bells are the "check your work" mechanism for the crowds outside.
"Habemus Papam"
Once the vote is settled, the Dean of the College of Cardinals asks the winner: "Do you accept your canonical election as Supreme Pontiff?"
If they say yes (and they almost always do, though some have reportedly wept at the burden), they are asked what name they want to be called. This is a big deal. The name sets the tone. A "Francis" suggests poverty and humility. A "Pius" suggests tradition and strictness.
The new Pope then goes into the "Room of Tears," a tiny red-carpeted room off the Sistine Chapel. Why is it called that? Because that’s where the reality hits. He puts on the white cassock—they keep three sizes ready (small, medium, and large) because they don't know who is going to win—and then he steps out onto the balcony.
The Logistics of Secrecy
You might think that in 2026, it would be easy to sneak a camera or a bug into the Sistine Chapel. The Vatican is ahead of you.
Before the conclave starts, specialized security teams sweep the entire chapel and the Domus Sanctae Marthae for listening devices. They install jamming equipment to kill cell signals.
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They also have to hire a staff to cook and clean for the cardinals. These people—nurses, cooks, housekeepers—also have to take an oath of permanent secrecy. If the chef hears a cardinal mentioning a specific name over pasta, he can never repeat it. Not to his wife, not to his priest. Never.
Why This Matters Beyond Religion
Even if you aren't Catholic, the question of how is a Pope elected carries weight because the Pope is a sovereign head of state. He has diplomatic relations with almost every country. He influences global stances on climate change, migration, and ethics.
The process is designed to be slow and insulated. It’s meant to prevent the "heat of the moment" from dictating the future of a 2,000-year-old institution. By forcing the cardinals into a locked room without their phones, the Church forces them to look at each other and negotiate until they find a consensus.
Common Misconceptions
- The Holy Spirit picks the Pope: Theologically, Catholics believe the Spirit "guides" the electors, but even high-ranking Church officials like Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger (before he became Benedict XVI) admitted that the Spirit doesn't exactly dictate a name. It's still a human process with human flaws.
- It takes months: Not anymore. Most modern conclaves are over in a few days. The 2013 conclave took only two days. The longest one in history (in the 13th century) took nearly three years—the local people eventually tore the roof off the building to force the cardinals to hurry up.
- The Pope must be a Cardinal: Technically, any baptized male Catholic can be elected. You could be elected Pope tomorrow. But if you aren't a bishop, they’d have to ordain you on the spot before you could take the job. In practice, they haven't picked a non-cardinal since 1378.
What to Watch for During the Next Vacancy
If you want to follow the next election like an expert, don't just look at the smoke. Watch the "pre-conclave" meetings called General Congregations. This is where the cardinals discuss the state of the church. If they spend all their time talking about finances, they’ll likely pick a "manager" Pope. If they talk about evangelization, they’ll pick a "preacher."
Actionable Insights for Following a Conclave:
- Monitor the "Papabili": This is the list of "pope-able" candidates. Keep an eye on the Archbishops of major hubs like Milan, Vienna, or Sao Paulo.
- Check the Age Balance: If the College is heavily weighted with older cardinals appointed by a previous, more conservative Pope, don't expect a radical progressive to win.
- Watch the First Two Days: If white smoke doesn't appear by day three, it usually means the College is deeply divided, and a "dark horse" candidate might emerge.
- Identify the Kingmakers: Often, the most powerful cardinals aren't the ones who want the job, but the ones who control a block of 10-15 votes.
The process is a strange blend of the divine and the bureaucratic. It is the world's oldest continuous elective process, and despite all our technology, it still relies on a piece of paper, a fireplace, and a locked door.