Virginia has always been a weird one to predict. For decades, it was a GOP lock, but lately, it’s felt more like a blue wall. If you’re looking at how did virginia vote in 2024, the surface-level answer is simple: Kamala Harris took the state. But the deeper story? It’s a lot more messy and interesting than just one color on a map.
Honestly, the margin tells the real tale. Harris won with 51.8% of the vote. Donald Trump pulled in 46.1%. At first glance, you might think, "Okay, so Virginia is blue now." Sure, but it’s a lighter shade of blue than it was four years ago. Back in 2020, Joe Biden won the Commonwealth by a much wider 10 points. In 2024, that gap shrank to about 5.7%. It was a rightward shift, even if the electoral votes stayed in the Democratic column.
The Big Map: Who Won Where?
If you look at a map of Virginia’s counties, it looks like a sea of red with a few bright blue islands. That’s because Trump won the vast majority of Virginia’s geographic area. He dominated in Southwest Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley. Places like Tazewell County or Russell County aren't just Republican; they are deep, dark red. In some of these spots, Trump was pulling over 80% of the vote.
But geographic size doesn't vote; people do.
The "islands" Harris won are where everyone lives. Northern Virginia (NoVa) is the engine here. Fairfax County, Arlington, and Alexandria basically decide the state's fate these days. Harris crushed it there. Loudoun and Prince William counties also stayed blue, though the margins there were a bit tighter than some Democrats probably hoped for.
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Then you have the Richmond area and "The 757" (Hampton Roads). Cities like Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Richmond proper are Democratic strongholds. Harris needed high turnout in these urban hubs to offset the rural red wave, and she got just enough to keep the state's 13 electoral votes.
What Really Drove the Numbers?
Why did it tighten up? Well, the economy was the elephant in the room. According to AP VoteCast data, about 40% of Virginia voters cited the economy and jobs as their top priority. Even in the wealthy suburbs of NoVa, people were feeling the pinch of inflation. That gave Trump an opening he didn't have as much of in 2020.
Immigration was another big one, with about 19% of voters calling it their main concern. On the flip side, Harris leaned heavily into abortion rights, which was the primary driver for about 11% of the electorate. It's a classic tug-of-war.
How Did Virginia Vote in 2024 Down the Ballot?
The presidency wasn't the only thing on the line. Tim Kaine, the longtime Democratic Senator and former VP pick, was up for re-election. He actually outperformed Harris. Kaine won his seat by about 9 points, proving that "ticket-splitting" isn't totally dead. People who might have been skeptical of Harris were still comfortable with Kaine’s "nice guy from Richmond" brand.
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In the House of Representatives, things stayed pretty stable. Most incumbents held onto their seats.
- Rob Wittman (R) kept the 1st District.
- Jen Kiggans (R) held on in the 2nd District, which is always a nail-biter around Virginia Beach.
- Bobby Scott (D) sailed through in the 3rd.
One of the wildest things about the 2024 cycle was the voter turnout. It was actually down a bit compared to 2020. We saw about 70.5% turnout, which is high for most states but a drop for Virginia’s recent standards. Interestingly, the highest turnout wasn't in the big cities; it was in rural counties like Goochland and Powhatan, where over 80% of registered voters showed up.
The "Purple" Identity Crisis
So, is Virginia still a swing state? Kind of.
The 2024 results suggest Virginia is a "Blue-Leaning" state that can still be competitive under the right circumstances. Trump’s ability to narrow the gap shows that the GOP isn't locked out of the Commonwealth. However, as long as the Northern Virginia suburbs continue to grow, Republicans have a very steep hill to climb.
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It’s worth noting that Harris becoming the first Democrat to win Virginia while losing the national popular vote since 1924 is a massive historical quirk. It shows that Virginia is now actually to the left of the rest of the country in some ways. A century ago, that would have been unthinkable.
Actionable Insights for the Future
If you’re trying to make sense of Virginia’s political trajectory after the 2024 results, keep these points in mind:
- Watch the 2025 Governor's Race: Virginia elects its governors in the "off-off" years. With Glenn Youngkin term-limited (Virginia doesn't let governors serve back-to-back), the 2025 race between Abigail Spanberger and Winsome Earle-Sears will be the next big test.
- Follow Suburban Trends: Look at Loudoun and Chesterfield counties. These are the "bellwethers." If Republicans can start winning these back, the state flips. If not, the blue wall holds.
- Check Your Registration: Virginia has relatively easy voting laws (early voting, no-excuse absentee), but you still need to keep your registration current. You can check your status at the Virginia Department of Elections website.
- Analyze the Margins, Not Just the Wins: A 5-point win is very different from a 10-point win. The shrinking margin in 2024 suggests that Virginia's "Blue State" status is more fragile than it looked four years ago.
The 2024 vote proved that Virginia isn't a monolith. It’s a collection of high-tech suburbanites, rural farmers, and coastal city dwellers who are increasingly at odds over where the country should go. While the blue streak continues for now, the data shows a state that is still very much in flux.
Next Steps:
To stay informed on Virginia’s changing political landscape, you should monitor the Virginia Department of Elections' official certification data for localized precinct shifts. Additionally, keep an eye on the upcoming 2025 gubernatorial primary filings, as they will signal which factions of each party are gaining momentum heading into the next state-wide cycle.