Honestly, if you looked at your portfolio yesterday, you probably wanted to close the app and forget it existed. It was rough. But today, Thursday, January 15, 2026, felt like someone finally flipped the "on" switch for the tech sector. After two straight days of bleeding, the major indexes decided to stage a comeback, and they largely have a single company in Taiwan to thank for it.
The big picture: How did the stock market do today?
Basically, it was a rebound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed about 350 points, or 0.7%, to finish at 49,499. The S&P 500 followed suit, rising 0.5% to 6,961, while the Nasdaq Composite—which took the biggest beating recently—jumped 0.6% to close around 23,612. It wasn't a total "moon mission," but it was a solid enough recovery to stop the panic that was starting to set in.
Why Semiconductors Are Suddenly Everything Again
If you're wondering what changed between yesterday's gloom and today's green, look at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC). They dropped their quarterly results, and they were, frankly, massive. Their profit surged 35%, which is a wild number for a company that big.
When TSMC does well, everyone else in the AI food chain breathes easier. Nvidia (NVDA), which had been struggling with news that China was blocking its H200 chips, caught a major tailwind from the TSMC report and rose nearly 3%. Other chipmakers like Applied Materials and Lam Research weren't just "up"—they were soaring, with gains in the 7-8% range. It turns out the "AI bubble" hasn't popped just yet; it's just getting more selective.
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The Banks Are Still a Mixed Bag
While tech was having its moment, the banking sector was a bit more of a rollercoaster. We’re in the middle of earnings season, and it's getting messy. Goldman Sachs (GS) managed to beat earnings expectations, which sent its stock up about 1.8%, but they missed on revenue. Morgan Stanley (MS) had a better day, climbing over 3%.
However, there’s a shadow hanging over these guys. President Trump’s recent talk about a 10% cap on credit card interest rates has bankers sweating. If that actually happens, the profit margins on your "swipe" are going to crater.
The Economy Is "Too Good" for Interest Rate Cuts
We also got a fresh batch of economic data today that sort of puts the Federal Reserve in a corner. Weekly jobless claims came in at 198,000. That’s low. It means the labor market is still incredibly resilient, despite everything.
You’d think "people having jobs" is strictly good news, right? Not for the stock market.
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When the labor market is this tight, the Fed has almost zero incentive to cut interest rates. Most of the traders I follow have basically given up on a rate cut in March. The odds have plummeted to about 20%. As JoAnne Bianco from BondBloxx put it, the needle isn't moving toward cuts; if anything, we’re looking at a "higher for longer" situation that could last well into the summer.
What Really Happened with the Consumer
Retail sales were up 0.6%, which beat expectations. People are still spending, even if they’re complaining about the price of eggs. This is the great paradox of the 2026 economy: consumer sentiment is sorta "meh," but consumer spending is relentless.
- Winners today: Chipmakers (TSMC, Nvidia), Investment Banks (Morgan Stanley), and Energy (Exxon, Chevron).
- Losers today: Enterprise software. Adobe and Salesforce are having a brutal start to the year, down double digits since January 1.
- The "Trump Factor": Geopolitical tensions with Iran eased slightly today after the President signaled a more cautious approach, which took some of the "fear premium" out of oil prices.
A Growing Divide in Software
It's weirdly fascinating to see how the market is splitting tech into "haves" and "have-nots." If you make the hardware for AI, like Nvidia or Sandisk, you're a king. Sandisk is actually up about 70% in just the first two weeks of 2026.
But if you’re a software-as-a-service (SaaS) giant like Intuit or ServiceNow, the market is treating you like a pariah. Intuit is down over 15% year-to-date. Investors are basically demanding to see exactly how AI is making these software companies more money right now, and they aren't satisfied with the answers yet.
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What You Should Do Now
Don't go chasing the 8% gains in semiconductor equipment stocks tomorrow morning. That ship has likely sailed for the short term. Instead, keep a close eye on the 10-year Treasury yield, which is hovering around 4.15%. If that starts creeping toward 4.3%, even the "AI miracle" won't be enough to keep the S&P 500 from sliding again.
Check your exposure to those lagging software stocks. If you're holding things like Adobe or CRM, look at their upcoming earnings dates in February. The market is looking for an excuse to punish them further, so you might want to trim those positions or at least tighten your stop-losses.
Lastly, watch the "Fed-Trump" drama. The investigation into Jerome Powell is a huge distraction. If the market starts to feel that the Fed's independence is actually under threat, we won't be talking about 0.5% gains—we'll be talking about a volatility spike that makes 2022 look like a walk in the park.
Stay diversified. Hardware is winning today, but the tide in this market turns faster than a social media trend.