You’ve probably seen the Netflix documentaries. The ones with the grainy footage of Ted Bundy or the dramatic reenactments of Jeffrey Dahmer. They make it feel like there’s a boogeyman lurking behind every suburban hedge. But honestly, the reality of how common are serial killers is a lot weirder—and in some ways, more hopeful—than Hollywood wants you to think.
The truth? They aren’t nearly as common as they used to be. Not even close.
In the 1970s and 80s, the U.S. was basically in a "Golden Age" of serial murder. That sounds dark, but the data from the Radford/FGCU Serial Killer Database backs it up. Back then, there were nearly 300 active serial killers operating in the United States. Compare that to the 2010s, where the number of known active killers plummeted to fewer than 50.
That’s a massive drop. We’re talking about a 80-90% decline in a few decades.
Why the Boogeyman is Fading
If you're wondering why these numbers fell off a cliff, it isn't because people suddenly became nicer. It’s mostly because the world changed in ways that make being a predator much harder.
Think about the 1970s. People hitchhiked everywhere. There were no cell phones. If you went missing, it might be days before anyone noticed. Today, everyone has a GPS tracker in their pocket. Surveillance cameras are on every street corner. Forensic science isn't just a few fingerprints anymore; we have familial DNA testing that can catch a killer through their second cousin’s 23andMe profile.
James Alan Fox, a criminology professor at Northeastern University, points out that "target hardening" played a huge role. We don't let our kids wander miles from home alone anymore. We don't pick up strangers. The "vulnerable" population that serial killers preyed upon is simply more connected and better protected.
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The Math of Modern Murder
The FBI estimates that serial killings account for less than 1% of all murders in the U.S. annually. With roughly 19,000 to 21,000 homicides a year, we’re looking at maybe 150 to 200 deaths caused by serial offenders.
That’s still tragic, but it puts the risk in perspective. You are statistically much more likely to die from a lightning strike or a freak accident than to cross paths with a serial killer.
The Active Numbers Today
So, how many are out there right now?
Most experts, including those at the Murder Accountability Project, estimate there are between 25 and 50 active serial killers in the U.S. at any given time. Some more aggressive estimates suggest it could be up to 100, but those numbers often depend on how you define "active."
Thomas Hargrove, the founder of the Murder Accountability Project, uses an algorithm to find "clusters" of unsolved murders. He believes we might be missing some patterns because police departments don't always talk to each other. He famously helped identify a cluster of strangulations in Gary, Indiana, which eventually led to the arrest of Darren Deon Vann in 2014. Vann had been killing for decades, mostly unnoticed.
Hotspots and Geographic Trends
It’s not just a "where" but a "who." Some places just seem to attract this kind of activity more than others.
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- California: Leads in total numbers simply because it’s huge. It has the history (Zodiac, Night Stalker, Golden State Killer), but also the sheer population volume.
- Alaska: This is the scary one. It has the highest rate of serial killer victims per capita. The isolation, the transient workforce, and the vast wilderness make it a difficult place to police.
- The "I-70" Corridor: Highways have always been hunting grounds. Killers like to move. Being able to kill in one state and be three states away by sunrise is a classic tactic.
Honestly, though, the "urban legend" of the brilliant, sophisticated serial killer is mostly a myth. Most are what criminologists call "local predators." They kill near where they live or work because they know the area. They aren't James Bond villains; they're usually opportunistic losers who exploit specific vulnerabilities in their own neighborhoods.
The "New" Type of Serial Killer
There is a theory—and it’s a controversial one—that serial killers didn't go away; they just changed their "method." Some researchers suggest that would-be serial killers today are becoming mass shooters.
The logic is that serial killers want to avoid capture and enjoy the "process" over time. Mass shooters want immediate notoriety. In a world where you’re almost guaranteed to get caught eventually because of DNA and cameras, some of these individuals might be choosing a single, high-impact event over a long, drawn-out series of crimes.
However, many experts like Mike Aamodt from Radford University disagree. The psychological profiles are different. A serial killer is often driven by a specific, recurring fantasy or a need for power. A mass shooter is often driven by a singular "final" grievance.
Are We Better at Catching Them?
Absolutely.
The "linkage blindness" of the past—where a killer would cross a county line and the new sheriff would have no idea about the previous crimes—is slowly dying. Systems like ViCAP (Violent Criminal Apprehension Program) allow departments to share details about "signature" behaviors.
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If a woman is found strangled with a specific type of knot in Ohio, and the same thing happens in Nevada, the system flags it. It’s not perfect, but it’s lightyears ahead of where we were in 1980.
What This Means for You
It’s easy to get sucked into true crime rabbit holes. But the data says you can breathe a little easier. The chances of you being targeted by a serial killer are astronomically low.
That said, being aware of your surroundings isn't just about avoiding "monsters." Most violent crime is committed by people the victim knows, not a shadowy stranger.
Actionable Insights for Staying Safe
- Trust your gut, but check the stats. If a situation feels "off," leave. But don't let the fear of a 1-in-a-million scenario keep you from living your life.
- Support better data sharing. Groups like the Murder Accountability Project push for better reporting from local police to federal databases. This is the single most effective way to catch active killers faster.
- Modern "Hitchhiking" is Digital. Be careful with meetups from apps. The "stranger danger" of the 70s has moved to the internet. Always meet in public and tell someone where you are.
- Look at the clearance rate. In some cities, the "clearance rate" (the percentage of murders solved) is below 50%. This is where serial killers thrive. If you want to advocate for safety, advocate for better-funded, more efficient homicide investigations in your local city.
The era of the "Superstar Serial Killer" is mostly over. Better technology, smarter policing, and a more cautious public have made the world a much smaller place for predators to hide. We haven't eliminated the monster, but we've certainly made its life a lot more difficult.
Next time you’re watching a true crime show, just remember: the reason it’s so fascinating is specifically because it’s so rare.