Honestly, if you're standing on the National Mall right now, you probably aren't thinking about "average climate data." You’re thinking about how the wind whipping off the Potomac River feels like it’s trying to personally insult you. It’s a specific kind of damp, bone-chilling cold that catches people off guard, especially when they assume "the South" starts at the Potomac.
As of tonight, Saturday, January 17, 2026, the thermometer in the District is sitting at exactly 38°F.
But here’s the kicker: it feels like 34°F. That four-degree gap might not sound like much on paper, but when you're walking from the Smithsonian Castle to the Lincoln Memorial, it’s the difference between "crisp" and "I can’t feel my ears." We’ve got a south wind moving at about 4 mph, which is barely a breeze, but the humidity is high at 77%. That moisture in the air is what makes DC cold feel "heavy." It clings to your coat.
What the rest of today looks like
If you’re planning to head out late, keep in mind we’ve had a messy mix of rain and snow throughout the day. The high hit 43°F, but we’re heading down to a low of 35°F tonight. The sky is currently clear with periodic clouds, but don't get too comfortable. There’s still a 60% chance of light snow before morning.
Basically, it's classic mid-January in the District.
Why DC Cold is Deceptive
People see a forecast of 38 degrees and think, "Oh, that’s not bad, I’ll just wear a light jacket." Big mistake. Huge.
The city is a giant wind tunnel. Because the streets are laid out in a grid with massive, wide-open spaces like the Ellipse and the Mall, the wind has plenty of room to pick up speed. Meteorologists at the Capital Weather Gang often point out that while our "official" temperatures are recorded at Reagan National Airport (DCA), the actual temperature near the monuments or up in upper Northwest can be several degrees colder.
The Arctic Blast is Coming
While 38°F is chilly, it’s actually "mild" for what’s about to hit us. Looking at the week ahead, an Arctic front is timing itself perfectly for the annual minimum in average readings. By Tuesday, we are looking at lows near 10°F to 15°F, with highs that might struggle to even reach the mid-20s.
When that happens, the wind chill—the "real feel"—will likely drop into the single digits.
Historic Shivers: It Could Be Worse
Whenever someone complains about the current temperature, there's always an "old-timer" ready to remind them of February 11, 1899. That was the coldest day ever recorded in Washington DC, when the mercury plummeted to a terrifying -15°F.
Imagine that. Minus fifteen.
Back then, the Weather Bureau was located at 24th and M St. NW. They reported that D.C. was actually colder than many parts of New England during that three-day stretch. People were suffering from frostbite so severe it led to amputations. In January 1912, it got so cold (-13°F) that the city actually held an ice carnival on a frozen Tidal Basin.
While we aren't hitting those record-breaking numbers tonight, the 38°F we're feeling now is still enough to make you want to stay inside.
Survival Tips for the District
If you have to be out in this, you’ve gotta layer. And I don’t mean just putting a sweater over a t-shirt.
Experts like Teece Nowell, who runs nature immersion schools in the area, swear by a base layer of Merino wool. Avoid cotton like the plague; it absorbs moisture and will keep you shivering. A fleece-lined shell is usually better than a massive "puffer" because it cuts the wind.
- Footwear: Wear something with a thick sole. The marble and concrete of the city soak up the cold, and if your shoes are thin, your feet will be blocks of ice in twenty minutes.
- The "Secret" Warm-up: If you're near the National Mall and freezing, duck into the U.S. Botanic Garden. The Tropic House is kept at a balmy temperature and it’s a literal breath of warm air.
- Drink Like a Local: Grab a half-smoke at Ben’s Chili Bowl or a seasonal latte. The heat from the food helps more than you’d think.
Is it going to snow?
For the rest of tonight, yes, light snow is likely. We had a 100% chance of precipitation earlier today, and that moisture is still lingering. Because the ground is relatively "warm" (meaning it hasn't been below freezing for weeks), most of it will be slushy rather than a winter wonderland.
If you're driving, be careful on the bridges. The Woodrow Wilson and Key Bridges always freeze before the regular roads do.
The "Snow Potential Index" for this weekend is currently sitting at about a 4 out of 10. It’s enough to be pretty, but probably not enough to get you a day off work on Monday.
💡 You might also like: What Day Is February 17th: The Chaos and Celebration You Didn’t Expect
How to Handle the Cold Tonight
If you're heading out to a Capitals game at Capital One Arena or grabbing a drink at a speakeasy like Allegory, just know that the 34°F feel-like temperature is going to drop as the night goes on.
- Check the wind direction. It's coming from the south right now, which is usually a "warmer" wind, but at 77% humidity, it’s going to feel damp.
- Keep moving. Blood flow is your best friend when the temp is under 40.
- Carry an umbrella. With the mix of rain and light snow, "dry cold" is a myth in DC right now.
The most important thing to remember is that DC weather is fickle. You might be shivering at 38°F tonight, but by next week, you’ll be wishing for these "mild" temperatures when the Arctic air officially arrives. Layer up, grab some wool socks, and maybe skip the outdoor walk in favor of a museum.