If you spent the night of November 5, 2024, glued to a television screen, you probably remember the feeling of a slow-motion landslide. By the time the sun came up, Donald Trump hadn't just won; he had swept every single one of the seven major battleground states. On the surface, it looked like a total blowout. But if you start peeling back the layers of the actual data, the question of how close was the 2024 election becomes a lot more complicated. It was a weird mix of a decisive Electoral College victory and one of the narrowest popular vote margins we've seen in modern history.
Basically, the 2024 race was a game of inches disguised as a mile-wide victory.
The Popular Vote: A Historically Tight Squeeze
Let’s talk about the raw numbers first. For the first time in twenty years, a Republican won the popular vote. That’s a massive deal for the GOP. Donald Trump brought in 77,303,568 votes, while Kamala Harris ended up with 75,019,230.
That sounds like a lot, right? Well, in the grand scheme of American politics, it's a razor-thin edge.
Trump’s margin of victory in the popular vote was only about 1.5%. To put that into perspective, that is the third smallest margin for a winner since 1888. Honestly, it was actually a smaller margin than Hillary Clinton’s "win" of the popular vote in 2016, which she famously won by 2.1% while losing the presidency. If you compare it to 2020, where Joe Biden beat Trump by 4.5%, the 2024 race was significantly more competitive on a national level than the previous one.
The "mandate" people talk about is more of a political talking point than a mathematical reality. While Trump definitely won, he did so in a country that is still split almost exactly down the middle.
Those Seven Swing States Tell a Different Story
You've probably heard that Trump "swept" the swing states. He did. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all went red. This gave him a comfortable 312 to 226 lead in the Electoral College.
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But look at the "Blue Wall" states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
- In Wisconsin, the margin was less than 1%. We're talking about roughly 29,000 votes.
- In Michigan, it was about 1.4%, or roughly 80,000 votes.
- Pennsylvania was slightly wider but still landed at 1.7%.
If you add up the margins in the three or four closest states, a shift of just a few hundred thousand people out of over 150 million voters could have flipped the entire Electoral College. That’s the definition of "close."
It’s kinda fascinating because while the map looked very red, the actual "on-the-ground" reality in places like Milwaukee or Detroit was a series of tiny shifts that snowballed. Trump didn't need to win over every Democrat; he just needed a few thousand "switchers" and a lot of Biden’s 2020 voters to stay home.
Why the Election Felt Like a Blowout (Even If It Wasn't)
So why does everyone remember it as a landslide? It’s because of the swing.
Every single state—yes, all 50 of them—shifted toward the right compared to 2020. Even in deep blue strongholds like New York and New Jersey, the margins tightened significantly. In New York, the Democratic lead shrunk by over 6 points. New Jersey, which used to be a safe "Blue" bet, saw a 5-point shift.
When you see a map where literally every arrow is pointing in one direction, it feels like a tidal wave. But a tidal wave that moves the needle by 2% is still just a 2% move. It’s enough to win, but it’s not exactly a realignment of the American soul.
The real story of how close was the 2024 election lies in the turnout. Pew Research found that 89% of Trump’s 2020 supporters showed up again. Only 85% of Biden’s 2020 supporters showed up for Harris. That 4% "enthusiasm gap" was the whole ballgame. Harris didn't lose because millions of people suddenly became MAGA fans; she lost because millions of people who voted for Biden simply didn't feel like voting for her.
The Demographic Shuffles
We also saw some wild shifts in who voted for whom.
- Hispanic Voters: This was the big one. Trump basically halved the Democratic lead with Hispanic voters, losing them by only about 3 points (compared to 25 points in 2020).
- Young Men: Men under 50 swung hard. In 2020, Biden won this group by 10 points. In 2024, they were basically split 50/50.
- The "New" Voters: People who didn't vote in 2020 but showed up in 2024 broke for Trump by a 12-point margin.
What This Means for the Future
If you’re looking for a takeaway, it’s this: the US is stuck in a 50/50 loop.
The 2024 election was close enough that the Democrats will spend years arguing over whether it was a "messaging" problem or a "candidate" problem. Meanwhile, Republicans are looking at those shifts in New York and California and wondering if they can actually compete there in 2028.
The reality? A few percentage points here or there changed the entire trajectory of the country.
Actionable Insights for Political Junkies
If you're trying to make sense of where we go from here, keep your eyes on these three things:
- Watch the 2025 Governor Races: Specifically in New Jersey. If the GOP makes more gains there, the "Blue Wall" might be crumbling faster than we thought.
- Track Voter Registration: The shifts in Hispanic and working-class voters weren't a fluke; they were the result of years of registration drives. See if the DNC can counter-program this in the Sun Belt.
- Don't Trust "Landslide" Rhetoric: Always check the margins. In a country this polarized, "sweeps" are often just a series of very lucky, very narrow wins.
The 2024 election was a definitive win for Donald Trump, but it was also a reminder that in American politics, nobody is ever truly out of the game. A shift of 1.5% is all it takes to change everything.
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Next Steps for You:
Check the certified local results for your specific county to see how the "red shift" compared to the national average. You might find that your own neighborhood was even closer than the state-level data suggests.