If you look at the raw numbers, the 2020 race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump looks like a bit of a blowout. Biden won by over 7 million votes. He grabbed 306 Electoral College votes to Trump's 232. On paper, that’s the same margin Trump called a "landslide" when he beat Hillary Clinton in 2016. But honestly? That’s not the full story. If you're asking how close was the 2020 US election, the answer depends entirely on whether you’re looking at the popular will or the weird, high-stakes math of the Electoral College.
Popular votes don't win presidencies. Total tallies are basically a vanity metric in the American system. When you dig into the state-level data—the places where the "blue wall" met the "red sea"—you find a margin so thin it's actually terrifying for anyone who likes a clear mandate. We’re talking about a few thousand people in a few specific counties deciding the fate of 330 million others.
The 43,000-Vote Gap
Most people think Biden cruised to victory because of that 7-million-vote lead. He didn't. Because of the way we distribute electors, the entire thing actually came down to roughly 42,918 votes across three states: Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.
Think about that for a second. If just about 43,000 people in those specific spots had checked the other box, the Electoral College would have ended in a 269-269 tie. In a tie, the House of Representatives decides the winner based on state delegations. Since Republicans controlled more state delegations at the time, Trump likely would have been inaugurated for a second term. That is how close we were to a completely different reality. It's wild.
Georgia, Arizona, and the Tipping Point
Let's get specific. In Georgia, Biden won by 11,779 votes. That’s less than the capacity of many minor league baseball stadiums. In Arizona, the gap was even tighter—10,457 votes. Wisconsin was the "roomiest" of the three, with a margin of 20,682.
When you add those up, you realize that 0.03% of the total electorate held all the power.
You've got to wonder how that happens in a country so deeply divided. It’s partly because our political map has "calcified," as some political scientists like to say. Most states are safe. California isn't going red; Wyoming isn't going blue. So the entire multi-billion dollar circus of a presidential campaign focuses on maybe six or seven "swing" states. In 2020, those states were Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.
Pennsylvania was the "tipping point" state. This is the state that statistically puts the winner over the 270 mark. Biden won it by about 80,000 votes, which feels like a lot compared to Georgia, but it’s still only about 1.2%.
Why the Popular Vote is Misleading
Biden got 81 million votes. Trump got 74 million. Both of them broke the previous record for the most votes ever cast for a presidential candidate (held by Obama in 2008).
The reason Biden’s popular vote lead was so massive while the Electoral College was so tight comes down to "wasted" votes. Biden ran up the score in places like California and New York. If you win California by 5 million votes or 5 votes, you get the same 54 electors. Everything beyond "win by one" is essentially a statistical footnote. Trump, conversely, has a coalition that is more efficiently distributed across rural states and the Rust Belt, which gives him a built-in advantage in the Electoral College.
This creates a weird "efficiency gap." In 2020, Biden had to win the popular vote by at least 3 or 4 percentage points just to have a 50/50 shot at winning the presidency. He ended up winning it by 4.5 points, and he still only barely squeaked by in the states that mattered.
🔗 Read more: What Really Happened With Biden and Harris Reportedly Canceled Their Christmas Vacations
The Myth of the "Blue Wall"
For years, Democrats relied on the "Blue Wall"—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Trump smashed it in 2016. Biden rebuilt it in 2020, but the mortar was thin.
- Michigan: Biden won by 154,188. This was his most "comfortable" flip.
- Pennsylvania: 80,555 votes.
- Wisconsin: 20,682 votes.
If you’re a Republican strategist, you look at those numbers and see a clear path to victory. If you're a Democrat, you see a fragile coalition of suburban moderates and urban voters that could crumble at any moment.
What About Third Parties?
People often blame (or thank) third-party candidates when an election is this close. In 2020, third-party voting was actually way down compared to 2016. Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian candidate, pulled about 1.2% of the vote. In several key states, her total was actually larger than the margin between Biden and Trump.
For example, in Arizona, Jorgensen got over 50,000 votes. Biden won by 10,000. It’s impossible to say for sure where those voters would have gone if she hadn't been on the ballot—some might have stayed home, some might have gone to Trump—but it adds another layer to the "how close" question.
The COVID-19 Factor
You can't talk about 2020 without talking about the pandemic. It changed everything about how the election was conducted. We saw a massive surge in mail-in voting. This led to the "red mirage" and the "blue shift."
On election night, it looked like Trump was winning big in places like Pennsylvania because the in-person votes (which leaned Republican) were counted first. As the mail-in ballots (which leaned Democratic) were tallied over the following days, the lead evaporated. This "closeness" wasn't just about the final number; it was about the perception of the race as it unfolded in real-time. It felt like a nail-biter because, for four days, we literally didn't know who the president-elect was.
Comparison to Other Close Races
To really understand how close was the 2020 US election, you have to compare it to history.
It wasn't as close as 2000. Nothing is. That year, George W. Bush won Florida by 537 votes, which gave him the presidency. That’s a "recount every single ballot by hand" kind of margin.
However, 2020 was closer than 2012 or 2008. It was remarkably similar to 2016 in terms of the "tipping point" margins. In 2016, Trump won by about 77,000 votes across three states. In 2020, Biden won by about 43,000 votes across three states.
Strictly speaking, 2020 was actually closer than 2016 at the decisive level, even though the popular vote suggested the opposite.
The Takeaway for Future Elections
If you think 2020 was a fluke, look at the 2022 midterms or the early polling for 2024 and 2026. The US is essentially a 50/50 nation. We are polarized to the point where "swing voters" are a dying breed. Elections are no longer about "persuading" people in the middle; they are about "mobilizing" your base and hoping a few thousand people in the suburbs of Milwaukee or Atlanta decide they like you slightly more than the other guy.
The "closeness" of 2020 has fundamentally changed how campaigns operate. They don't buy national TV ads to talk to everyone. They buy hyper-targeted digital ads to talk to the 10,000 people in Maricopa County who haven't decided yet.
How to Track Election Closeness Yourself
Don't just look at the big map on the news. If you want to see how an election is actually going, you need to look at "margin of victory" maps.
- Check the "Tipping Point" State: Find the state that provides the 270th electoral vote. Look at the percentage margin there. Anything under 1% is a "hair on fire" scenario.
- Look at County-Level Shifts: In 2020, Biden won because he improved margins in "collar counties"—the suburban areas surrounding big cities like Philadelphia and Detroit.
- Watch the "Overvote": See if third-party candidates are pulling more votes than the gap between the two majors.
- Analyze the "Voter Turnout" Gap: In 2020, turnout was nearly 67%. When turnout is that high, the margin for error for either candidate disappears.
The 2020 election wasn't a landslide. It wasn't a mandate. It was a stressful, narrow victory decided by a group of people that could fit inside a single NFL stadium. Understanding that reality is the only way to understand where American politics is headed next.
Next Steps for Deepening Your Understanding:
To get a better handle on the data, visit the MIT Election Data and Science Lab. They provide granular breakdowns of exactly how these margins shifted. You should also look into the "National Popular Vote Interstate Compact"—it's a movement aimed at making the popular vote actually matter, which would completely change the "how close" math we just discussed.