It’s easy to look at the final map and see a blowout. Joe Biden won 306 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 232. On paper, that’s the exact same margin Trump called a "landslide" when he beat Hillary Clinton in 2016. But if you actually dig into the precinct-level data, the reality is way more intense. The gap between a Biden presidency and a second Trump term wasn't some massive wave of millions of people; it was a few handfuls of voters in a few specific zip codes.
Numbers lie. Or at least, they oversimplify things. While Biden won the popular vote by more than 7 million people, that number is basically irrelevant to how the president is actually chosen. Because of the Electoral College, the question of how close was 2020 election actually comes down to about 43,000 votes spread across three states.
The 43,000-Vote Ghost in the Machine
If you want to understand the fragility of American elections, look at Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin. These three states were the "tipping point."
In Arizona, Biden won by 10,457 votes.
In Georgia, the margin was 11,779.
In Wisconsin, it was 20,682.
Add those up. You get 42,918.
If those roughly 43,000 people had ticked the other box, the Electoral College would have ended in a 269-269 tie. Think about that for a second. In an election where 158 million people showed up—the highest turnout in over a century—the whole thing swung on a group of people that wouldn't even fill a professional baseball stadium. A tie would have sent the election to the House of Representatives, where each state delegation gets one vote. Since Republicans controlled more state delegations at the time, Trump almost certainly would have been re-elected.
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Why the Popular Vote is a Distraction
People get obsessed with the 81 million versus 74 million count. It matters for "mandates" and bragging rights, sure. But in terms of the actual mechanics of power, it’s a distraction. Biden’s massive lead was padded by places like California and New York, where he won by millions of votes that "didn't matter" because he was going to win those states anyway.
The real tension was in the suburbs of Atlanta, the "WOW" counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington) outside Milwaukee, and the retirement communities in Maricopa County, Arizona.
The Blue Wall and the Rust Belt Reality
For decades, Democrats relied on the "Blue Wall"—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Trump smashed that wall in 2016. In 2020, Biden managed to patch it back together, but it was a messy job.
Pennsylvania wasn't actually that close compared to the others. Biden won there by over 80,000 votes. Michigan was even wider, with a lead of roughly 154,000. So, while the media focuses on the "Rust Belt" as a monolith, the 2020 data shows a widening gap between a state like Michigan (shifting more reliably blue) and Wisconsin (remaining a true toss-up).
Honestly, the shift in Georgia was the real shocker. No Democrat had won there since Bill Clinton in 1992. The narrowness there—0.23%—is why the state became the epicenter of legal challenges and recounts. When you're talking about 11,000 votes out of 5 million cast, every single ballot feels like a structural beam holding up a skyscraper.
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What Most People Get Wrong About the "Closeness"
A lot of folks think "close" means it could have gone either way at any moment. But political scientists like Larry Sabato and the team at the Cook Political Report look at "stickiness."
Even though the margins were tiny, they were remarkably consistent. Despite months of litigation and multiple recounts (Georgia did three!), the numbers barely budged. This suggests that while the election was numerically close, the result was incredibly stable. You didn't see massive swings of 5,000 votes during audits. You saw shifts of 10 or 20.
Another misconception? That it was all about "flipping" Trump voters. The data from firms like Catalist suggests it was more about new voters. Biden won because he turned out young voters and Black voters in urban centers like Detroit and Atlanta who sat out 2016. Trump actually increased his total vote count by 11 million compared to 2016. He didn't lose support; he just got out-hustled in the margins by a massive surge in Democratic participation.
The Demographic Shifts That Almost Changed Everything
We have to talk about the Hispanic vote. This is where the 2020 election gets really weird and actually stayed closer than many polls predicted. In South Florida and the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, Trump saw massive gains among Latino voters.
If that trend had happened just a little bit faster or more broadly, Biden would have lost Nevada. He won Nevada by about 33,000 votes—roughly 2.4%. That’s not a huge cushion. If the "Latino shift" to the GOP continues, the 2020 map might be the last time we see a Democrat win the presidency without winning Florida or Ohio.
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Modern Polling: Why Did It Feel Further Apart?
Part of the reason we keep asking how close was 2020 election is that the polls told us it wouldn't be close at all. Most major outlets were predicting a Biden blowout. They had him up double digits in Wisconsin. He won by 0.6%.
This discrepancy created a psychological "shock." When the results started coming in on election night and Florida went red early and big, it felt like 2016 all over again. The closeness wasn't just in the final tally; it was in the total collapse of the "expert" narrative that Biden was cruising to an easy victory.
Actionable Insights for Future Elections
Understanding 2020 isn't just about history. It’s about the roadmap for every election coming after it. Here is what we can actually take away from these razor-thin margins:
- The Tipping Point State is King: Stop looking at national polls. They are useless. If you want to know who is winning, look at the polling average in the "third closest" state. In 2020, that was Wisconsin.
- Turnout Trumps Persuasion: The 2020 data proves it’s harder to change someone’s mind than it is to get a non-voter to show up. Both parties have realized this. Expect more "base" mobilization and less "reaching across the aisle" in future cycles.
- The Ground Game in Mid-Sized Cities: It wasn't just the big metros. Places like Savannah, Georgia, and Erie, Pennsylvania, were vital. Winning a few extra percentage points in a mid-sized city can offset losses in rural areas.
- Mail-in Ballots Changed the Math: The "Red Mirage" (where Republicans lead on election night but Democrats catch up as mail-in ballots are counted) is a permanent fixture as long as voting laws stay as they are. This makes "closeness" feel different—it's a slow-motion realization rather than a sudden event.
The 2020 election was a game of inches played on a field of miles. It was a 43,000-vote pivot point in a nation of 330 million. When someone tells you "your vote doesn't matter," show them the math in Arizona. One or two people per precinct switching sides would have changed the course of global history. That is as close as it gets.
To keep track of how these margins are shifting for the next cycle, your best bet is to follow non-partisan data aggregators like Ballotpedia or the MIT Election Data and Science Lab. They provide the raw files that strip away the pundits' spin and let you see the actual movement in your own county. Check your local voter registration status early, as these narrow margins often lead to more aggressive purges of voter rolls in swing states.